1.) It’s another unseasonably pleasant afternoon across central Indiana. Despite a gusty SW breeze (open county is approaching 40 MPH throughout central IN Sunday afternoon), the sunshine and warm temperatures are providing a phenomenal second half of the weekend.
Temperatures are running 20+ degrees above normal this afternoon.
2.) Clouds will begin to increase tonight and give way to showers as we open the work week. There will be plenty of dry time Monday morning into the afternoon, but a passing shower will remain in our forecast. Heavier rain and embedded thunderstorms will arrive on the scene Monday night into the wee morning hours Tuesday. As a whole, we expect between 0.50-1″ of rain, overall, by Tuesday morning.
Greatest rainfall coverage will arrive overnight Monday night.
3.) We’ll trend cooler for the mid week stretch, but nothing “cold” for this time of year. In fact, temperatures will remain above average as high pressure provides dry conditions.
Weak high pressure builds in for mid week.
4.) Confidence is high on an active period of weather arriving for the weekend into potentially early parts of next week. That said, despite overall high confidence on a busy time of things, the specifics remain “murky,” at best. It’ll be important to check back for updates on the weekend forecast as we progress through the upcoming week. Solutions range anywhere from a period of rain and storms to possibly some wintry “mischief.” One thing seems certain and that’s for a period of colder air (below normal) arriving in the 8-10 day period. In fact, the latest European model suggests overnight low in the 10s late next weekend.
The weather turns active next weekend.
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This warmer regime is the sign of stormy times that will develop as we move into Tuesday. An initial round of showers and thunderstorms will impact central Indiana Tuesday morning and the HRRR forecast radar is picking up on this nicely, especially during the predawn hours.
The wet, stormy start to the day will give way to a mostly dry time of things through the majority of the daylight hours Tuesday, but our concentration will be on the Tuesday night-Wednesday morning period, as the potential exists for some rather turbulent weather.
Modeled radar suggests things may begin to get “busy” around these parts late evening and during the overnight. The latest high resolution NAM (hot off the press as of this update) paints a rather ominous look as midnight nears Wednesday morning.
We then note modeling bringing the squall line through central Indiana during the overnight and predawn hours. We’ll have to fine tune timing as we move through the day Tuesday, but we bracket the hours of 2a and 6a when a concentrated line of strong to severe storms rumbles through the state (northwest to southeast). Hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out.
Our weather will turn quieter, but colder, as Wednesday progresses into Wednesday evening, including blustery conditions with falling temperatures.
That said, the chilly late week conditions won’t last long, and a gusty southwesterly air flow will develop as early as Saturday. This will help give temperatures a significant boost Saturday afternoon after a cold start to the day. 60° is possible Saturday afternoon and the mercury may approach 70° Sunday!