Category: Unseasonably Warm

Feb 03

Friday Morning Rambles; Looking Ahead…

1.) A cold close to the work week can be expected with highs today only topping out in the upper 20s (average highs are in the upper 30s).

gefs_t2ma_1d_noram_52.) What at one time looked to be a significant weekend storm now may not even deliver any precipitation at all to the region.  A flurry is possible, but most should remain precipitation-free this weekend. Expect a gusty southwest wind developing SB Sunday.  Highs around freezing Saturday will zoom into the middle 40s Sunday.  Lows Saturday morning in the middle 10s will rise into the upper 20s to around 30 Sunday morning.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_93.) A more significant storm system will cut for the Great Lakes early next week and this will deliver gusty showers and embedded thunderstorms.  A couple of stronger storms aren’t out of the question.  Locally heavy rains can be expected, including amounts of 1″-1.5″ (locally heavier totals).

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_19

gfs_tprecip_indy_224.)  Cold air will rush back into the region behind the storm and snow showers and squalls are likely by Wednesday.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_22

gfs_t2m_a_f_conus2_245.) Longer-term, a real fight is developing on the overall direction we’re heading as February evolves.  Analog methods and teleconnections (shown below) would yield bullish cold signals and give hope to winter enthusiasts.  However, modeling isn’t in agreement on the wintry ideas.  In fact, some modeling is very spring-like as mid-Feb nears.  Stay tuned as we try and iron out the details this weekend. Updates will come.

02.01.17Teleconnections

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Feb 01

VIDEO: Welcome To February…

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Jan 31

Hold On To Your Hat; Accumulating Weekend Snow?

Screen Shot 2017-01-31 at 8.07.29 AMHighlights:

  • Windy Tuesday
  • Scattered flurries; snow showers tonight-Wednesday AM
  • Accumulating weekend snow?

Bumpy Ride…Wind will be the big weather item today as a clipper low passes to our north.  Gusty west breezes will reach 30 MPH at times.  Otherwise, it’ll be a mild day as highs reach the lower 40s.  Cooler air will arrive tonight and will promote the chance of a passing flurry or scattered snow shower into Wednesday morning.

We’ll close the week with cold and dry conditions, including highs below freezing both Thursday and Friday.

As we move into the upcoming weekend, a storm system will attack the lingering cold air and this will allow for a period of snow to develop Saturday night into Sunday morning.  We still have time to monitor this event, but as of now this appears to be a relatively weak, flatter wave and “light” is the key word to describe the snow intensity Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Models want to drive a more significant storm system to our northwest early next week.  What’s new this winter?  A windy warm-up would result, including heavier rains late Monday into Tuesday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall:  0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hold-on-to-your-hat-accumulating-weekend-snow/

Jan 24

One More Mild Day; Old Man Winter Is Knocking On The Door…

Screen Shot 2017-01-24 at 9.49.46 PMHighlights:

  • Hold on to your hats
  • Cold air returns
  • Extended period of scattered snow showers; squall potential

Changes Brewing…Wednesday will feature more of the same mild weather we’ve come to know and enjoy across the Mid West over the past couple of weeks.  Despite the mild air, a storm system will result in scattered showers for our hump day, along with very windy conditions.  Gusts of 40 MPH will be common across central IN.

Temperatures will fall late Wednesday and Old Man Winter is set to make up for lost time as we progress through the back half of the work week and on into the weekend.  In addition, fast-moving upper level energy will push southeast in the active northwest flow aloft.  Scattered snow showers will result, along with localized embedded heavier squalls.  It certainly won’t snow the entire time, but passing snow showers will be a good bet from time to time Thursday through Sunday.

Our wintry pattern will relax briefly early next week, but renewed cold air appears poised to blow into town the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting – 1″ (local 2″ amounts possible)
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/one-more-mild-day-old-man-winter-is-knocking-on-the-door/

Jan 24

Winter Returns…

January got off to a frigid start.  Remember this coast-to-coast cold, including sub-zero temperatures across central IN, during the first week of the month?

t0-1024x818After the past week to ten days, that frigid open to the month seems like forever ago!  The past 7-10 days has featured a significant January thaw, and temperatures now, MTD, are warmer than average across the Ohio Valley.  Warmest anomalies can be found across the southeast region.

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2017That said, the pattern is shifting back to winter for the last week of the month and while the duration, longer-term, can be argued, the next 2-3 weeks appear to offer an opportunity to play “catch up” in both the snow and cold departments.  Note the developing eastern troughiness.  This will bring colder air back into the east as we close January and open February.  The GFS ensembles, courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com, also develops an interesting “blocky” look towards the end of the period in Week 2.  Should this verify, it would lead to a better chance of the cold, active pattern locking in.

GEFS2wk12417
You’re corresponding temperature anomalies show the shift back to a colder than normal regime.

Days 2-6

Days 2-6

Days 4-8

Days 4-8

Days 6-10

Days 6-10

Days 12-16

Days 12-16

A fast northwest flow will also result in multiple “pieces” of energy rotating southeast and we’ll forecast a period of snow showers by mid and late week, continuing into the weekend.  There’s the chance of a stronger clipper system sometime in the Sunday-Tuesday time frame that we’ll have to keep a close eye on.  We want to stress that global modeling will struggle with the specifics (timing and strength) of these clipper systems until within a couple days.

Longer term, while confidence is high on the evolution to a cold, wintry regime through the medium range, the longevity and sustainability of the cold is in question.  For instance, by Day 10 (as the GFS continues to drill cold into the region), the European ensembles are much less impressed and suggest the overall transient pattern we’ve dealt with for the balance of the winter continues:

ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_namer_11

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11Thinking here at IndyWx.com believes the European is likely rushing the warmer central look.  Time will tell…

**We do note the NEW European Weeklies lock a period of cold into the east from mid-February through early March, including a stormy (snowy) look.  Will Old Man Winter have the final say?

Updated 7-day later this evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/winter-returns/