Highlights:
- Clouds more bark than bite today
- Stormy setup Sunday
- Trending colder next week
All Eyes On Sunday…The cold front that passed through the region Thursday night and setup the gorgeous close to the work week is lifting back north this morning as a warm front. This will result in overcast conditions today, areas of sprinkles or drizzle later in the day, and rising nighttime temperatures. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across central Indiana late tonight with a warmer and increasingly moist environment.
Sunday will certainly be a day to remain weather-aware. The overall setup hasn’t changed from what was discussed yesterday with a warm and moist southwesterly air flow in place ahead of an approaching cold front and associated area of low pressure. Additional ingredients in play suggest we need to monitor the threat of large hail, damaging straight line winds, and potentially tornadoes. Individual storms (potential super cells) are expected to fire across central and northern portions of the state Sunday afternoon into early evening. These will be capable of quickly pulsing to severe levels and include potential of large hail, as well as tornadoes (particularly in the vicinity of the warm front which is expected to be draped across north-central parts of the state). Individual cells are anticipated to “morph” into a squall line Sunday evening, including potential of a quick spin-up tornado, as well as damaging straight line winds. With a moisture-rich air mass in place (precipitable water values are expected to approach 2″ Sunday evening), locally heavy rainfall is also expected.
All of our “excitement” will come to an end overnight Sunday and we’ll trend much colder (and calmer) during the new work week ahead. Our next storm system will pass by to our south Tuesday, but may be close enough to spark a light shower across central portions of the state. Drier and colder conditions build in later in the week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.50″
A trough and associated cold front will slice into an unseasonably warm and increasingly moist air mass Sunday. Ahead of the approaching front, temperatures should climb into the lower 70s Sunday afternoon (average high is in the upper 50s) and dew points will reach the lower to middle 60s. While the developing surface low isn’t expected to be terribly strong, as this feature moves northeast, it’ll help drag a cold front into this warm and increasingly unstable air mass late Sunday. From this distance, conditions seem favorable for a couple of super cells to develop Sunday afternoon and evening. We’ll have to keep a close eye on the northward extent of the warm front as this would be the areas of greatest concern for potential tornadic activity Sunday afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are also included in Sunday’s severe threat. We’re in the second severe weather season, after all, and this kind of event isn’t unusual. Late November 2013 comes to mind.
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