Category Archives: Unseasonably Warm

Tuesday Afternoon Rambles: Weekend Model Differences; What’s Beyond The Cooler Mid-May Shift?

I. A couple widely scattered light showers have flared up this afternoon, but most central Indiana neighborhoods have enjoyed dry conditions with sunshine and temperatures in the mid-upper 70s. Look for more of the same Wednesday, including filtered sunshine through a good chunk of the day. Warm Air Advection (WAA) will help boost temperatures into the lower 80s for most of the immediate area.

II. Better aerial coverage of showers and thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday night into Thursday night. We believe 3 rounds of showers and storms are possible during this time frame (at least impacting portions of the central Indiana viewing area):

  • Late Wednesday night into the predawn Thursday
  • Thursday afternoon
  • Thursday evening as the cold front sweeps through the state

III. High pressure will build into the region as we close the week. This will lead to improving weather conditions, including increasing sunshine. A very nice close to the work week/ open to the weekend is dialed up! Make those patio plans now!

IV. Modeling differs on the handling of our weekend weather feature(s). The GFS (image 1) maintains the idea of a dry Saturday, followed by showers Sunday as a cold front sweeps through the region. Moisture would be limited with such a solution. The European (image 2), however, is more bullish on a more widespread rain event arriving Saturday PM into Sunday AM. Stay tuned as we work to reach some sort of agreement between the data.

V. After a cooler than normal period of weather through the middle of the month, we’re thinking the coolest anomalies will pull back into the intermountain west and 4-Corners region. Do we foresee any major late-May heat? No, but we should moderate against the norms during the last week to 10 days of the month.

After a drier stretch of weather through the mid-May period, precipitation should return to at least average levels through the late month stretch. Early indications would then suggest wetter than normal times return as we get set to open June…

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More Evidence Behind Mid-May Shift To Cooler And Drier…

Though May has opened warmer than average (to the tune of 1 degree F above normal, month-to-date), there’s growing evidence behind a shift towards not only a cooler pattern for mid-month, but drier, as well.

MJO:

The Madden Julian Oscillation is forecast to move through Phase 7 (a cooler phase in May across the eastern half of the country).

PNA:

The Pacific North America pattern is forecast to remain positive into mid-May. This favors a cooler than normal south-central into the eastern portion of the country, as well.

To no surprise, we see modeling now in excellent agreement of the cooler mid-month shift that awaits on deck. Recall that this wasn’t the case last week when the GFS and EPS were in vast disagreement.

The cooler shift also will provide relief from the seemingly unending wet regime we’ve been in as of late.

Hang in there; after a warm, wet open to the month, the pattern will begin to shift around in significant fashion as we move into the weekend and beyond…

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Time To Duke It Out…

We know the upcoming (10) day period is going to feature a continuation of above average rainfall, but what lies beyond that? Ensemble data is entirely in two different camps once we get to the Day 10-15 period.

GEFS:

EPS:

Talk about a night and day difference. This would result in widespread 70s and 80s should the GEFS prove accurate (and put our May outlook in jeopardy) versus 50s and 60s should the European turn out to be correct (more in line with our monthly outlook). Unfortunately, from a precipitation perspective, wetter than normal times are expected to continue for the balance of the month of May and the data is in more agreement from that perspective- despite the vast differences at 500mb.

When we look at the latest CFSv2, it’s more in line with the European camp, including rather widespread chilly, damp weather for the mid-to-late May time period.

The combination of a negative NAO and AO, though not nearly to the extent of chill found in late winter/ early spring, do continue to hint at cooler than normal times in May. Eventually I would expect the GEFS to trend cooler, as well.

Furthermore, the PNA (currently negative) is forecast to trend positive by mid-May and that supports the cooler anomalies returning to our immediate region.

We’ll also have to keep close tabs on the MJO and see if it wants to propagate through Phases 5-8, or go back in the “wheelhouse” and really not be a factor. (More to come there).

To sum things up, we don’t see an end in sight to the overall wetter than average pattern as we progress into the middle of May. We’re less confident on the overall temperature pattern, but lean towards the EPS and CFSv2 “winning” over the warm GEFS solution in the end.

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