Category: Unseasonably Warm

Jan 31

Hold On To Your Hat; Accumulating Weekend Snow?

Screen Shot 2017-01-31 at 8.07.29 AMHighlights:

  • Windy Tuesday
  • Scattered flurries; snow showers tonight-Wednesday AM
  • Accumulating weekend snow?

Bumpy Ride…Wind will be the big weather item today as a clipper low passes to our north.  Gusty west breezes will reach 30 MPH at times.  Otherwise, it’ll be a mild day as highs reach the lower 40s.  Cooler air will arrive tonight and will promote the chance of a passing flurry or scattered snow shower into Wednesday morning.

We’ll close the week with cold and dry conditions, including highs below freezing both Thursday and Friday.

As we move into the upcoming weekend, a storm system will attack the lingering cold air and this will allow for a period of snow to develop Saturday night into Sunday morning.  We still have time to monitor this event, but as of now this appears to be a relatively weak, flatter wave and “light” is the key word to describe the snow intensity Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Models want to drive a more significant storm system to our northwest early next week.  What’s new this winter?  A windy warm-up would result, including heavier rains late Monday into Tuesday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall:  0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/31/hold-on-to-your-hat-accumulating-weekend-snow/

Jan 24

One More Mild Day; Old Man Winter Is Knocking On The Door…

Screen Shot 2017-01-24 at 9.49.46 PMHighlights:

  • Hold on to your hats
  • Cold air returns
  • Extended period of scattered snow showers; squall potential

Changes Brewing…Wednesday will feature more of the same mild weather we’ve come to know and enjoy across the Mid West over the past couple of weeks.  Despite the mild air, a storm system will result in scattered showers for our hump day, along with very windy conditions.  Gusts of 40 MPH will be common across central IN.

Temperatures will fall late Wednesday and Old Man Winter is set to make up for lost time as we progress through the back half of the work week and on into the weekend.  In addition, fast-moving upper level energy will push southeast in the active northwest flow aloft.  Scattered snow showers will result, along with localized embedded heavier squalls.  It certainly won’t snow the entire time, but passing snow showers will be a good bet from time to time Thursday through Sunday.

Our wintry pattern will relax briefly early next week, but renewed cold air appears poised to blow into town the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting – 1″ (local 2″ amounts possible)
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/24/one-more-mild-day-old-man-winter-is-knocking-on-the-door/

Jan 24

Winter Returns…

January got off to a frigid start.  Remember this coast-to-coast cold, including sub-zero temperatures across central IN, during the first week of the month?

t0-1024x818After the past week to ten days, that frigid open to the month seems like forever ago!  The past 7-10 days has featured a significant January thaw, and temperatures now, MTD, are warmer than average across the Ohio Valley.  Warmest anomalies can be found across the southeast region.

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2017That said, the pattern is shifting back to winter for the last week of the month and while the duration, longer-term, can be argued, the next 2-3 weeks appear to offer an opportunity to play “catch up” in both the snow and cold departments.  Note the developing eastern troughiness.  This will bring colder air back into the east as we close January and open February.  The GFS ensembles, courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com, also develops an interesting “blocky” look towards the end of the period in Week 2.  Should this verify, it would lead to a better chance of the cold, active pattern locking in.

GEFS2wk12417
You’re corresponding temperature anomalies show the shift back to a colder than normal regime.

Days 2-6

Days 2-6

Days 4-8

Days 4-8

Days 6-10

Days 6-10

Days 12-16

Days 12-16

A fast northwest flow will also result in multiple “pieces” of energy rotating southeast and we’ll forecast a period of snow showers by mid and late week, continuing into the weekend.  There’s the chance of a stronger clipper system sometime in the Sunday-Tuesday time frame that we’ll have to keep a close eye on.  We want to stress that global modeling will struggle with the specifics (timing and strength) of these clipper systems until within a couple days.

Longer term, while confidence is high on the evolution to a cold, wintry regime through the medium range, the longevity and sustainability of the cold is in question.  For instance, by Day 10 (as the GFS continues to drill cold into the region), the European ensembles are much less impressed and suggest the overall transient pattern we’ve dealt with for the balance of the winter continues:

ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_namer_11

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11Thinking here at IndyWx.com believes the European is likely rushing the warmer central look.  Time will tell…

**We do note the NEW European Weeklies lock a period of cold into the east from mid-February through early March, including a stormy (snowy) look.  Will Old Man Winter have the final say?

Updated 7-day later this evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/24/winter-returns/

Jan 23

Foggy Start; Winter Returns…

Screen Shot 2017-01-23 at 7.15.25 AMHighlights:

  • Dense fog this morning
  • Turning much colder this week
  • Scattered snow showers late week

Low Beams On…Dense fog engulfs most of central IN this morning.  Make sure you have the low beams on this morning as you head off to work and school and allow extra time.  A shower is possible at any point today, but particularly across the eastern half of the state.

Our next storm system will push through mid week.  Southwest winds will increase Wednesday and scattered showers will accompany a cold front moving through the state.  Temperatures will fall Wednesday night into Thursday and scattered snow showers will develop.

The theme late in the week and for the weekend will be a wintry one.  Upper level energy will interact with the colder conditions and result in scattered snow showers from time to time into the weekend.  The active northwest flow will remain into next week, as well, and we’ll have to keep a close eye for the prospects of a more “robust” clipper impacting the region just beyond this forecast period.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/23/foggy-start-winter-returns/

Jan 21

Spring-Like Weekend, But Changes Loom…

Screen Shot 2017-01-20 at 10.25.29 PMHighlights:

  • Spring-like weekend
  • Unsettled times continue
  • Winter returns

Rare January White Leg Alert…The big news this weekend will be temperatures close to 30 degrees above normal and a legitimate spring feel.  Average highs across central IN this time of year are in the middle 30s and temperatures this afternoon will zoom to the lower-middle 60s.  Patchy morning fog and drizzle will be with us, but we’re remaining optimistic we could squeeze a couple of looks at the sun during the day.  Count yourself lucky if you do, indeed, see that weird giant bright thing in the sky! 😉

A developing storm system will track east across the central Plains and into the TN Valley this weekend.  This will result in a significant severe weather outbreak across the south and increasing rain chances here for the back half of the weekend.  The magnitude of the rain and potential embedded storms remains in question, but shower chances will at least be on the increase Sunday afternoon into the evening.  We note short-term, higher resolution modeling hitting the locally heavy rain threat harder than global data early this morning (centered on Sunday evening) and we’ll keep a close eye on things as most central IN communities remain waterlogged.  Winds will increase Monday- NE shifting to the N and gusts to 40 MPH with leftover showers continuing.

Tuesday will present a bit of a break in our active pattern before a fast-moving cold front blows into town Wednesday with scattered showers amidst blustery conditions.

We turn colder (you knew this incredibly mild pattern had to break at some point) late week and upper level energy will help ignite snow showers with the return of the wintry feel Thursday into Friday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/21/spring-like-weekend-but-changes-loom/

Jan 20

Weekend Video Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/20/weekend-video-update/

Jan 18

Times Are Changing, Or Are They?

January-to-date is running milder than normal across the region- to the tune of 3.3 degrees (F).  This is after a frigid open to the month, as you recall.

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2017The second week of the month warmed significantly and continues, overall, for the next week.

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_week_anomThe mid-January warmth is attributed to a roaring PAC jet which is currently helping flood the country with temperatures much more like spring than the dead of winter.  We continue to forecast 60+ this weekend across central IN.

Winter lovers, have no fear as changes appear to be in the offing as we go through the last few days of January and head into February.  The winter so far has featured conflicting signals that continue to try and compete with one another to take hold of the pattern.  Can we get these drivers to align in a way that would pull a more persistent trough into the east for the second half of the winter and, ultimately, set-up a sustained cold pattern helping make up for lost time in the snowfall department?  Time will tell, but we do note the following late month:

  • (+) PNA pattern
  • Sudden stratospheric warming event
  • High latitude blocking

All are encouraging for a shift back towards a wintry regime.  As always, the devil is in the details and we’re skeptical as to the longevity of these signals.  “Cautiously optimistic” would be the way to sum up our current feel longer-term into the month of February, but we’re not as bullish on lock and hold cold, wintry conditions at this time as what you may hear from some of our national compadres.  Understanding that various drivers can have a different impact mid and late winter as opposed to early is one thing.  It’s also important to note that long term modeling has been abysmal as of late and we want to tread through the next couple of weeks with caution to see whether or not the cold drivers can finally take hold.

Needless to say, at least through late month, one can see the significant changes take place at 500mb.

Thursday:

ecm_eps_z500a_noram_2This Weekend:

ecm_eps_z500a_noram_5Next Thursday:

ecm_eps_z500a_noram_9Next Weekend:

ecm_eps_z500a_noram_11The pattern begins in the short-term with a look that will power anomalous warmth through the weekend, along with renewed rain chances Thursday night into Friday (another 1″+ for most), but begins to shift next week towards the colder look.  The 2nd (weekend) storm system will be significant and poses a severe risk to the southeast region.  Modeling has backed away on the heavy rain threat Sunday, but showers will be around early next week along with very windy conditions (40+ MPH gusts).  Blocking is forcing the low south.  By the time we get to next weekend, the pattern has done a 180 and in a position to drill unseasonably cold air back into the central and eastern portions of the country.

As far as storms go later in the period, it’s far too early to discuss specifics, but the pattern seems to be one that will promote the chance to get into the act on high-ratio producing clippers.  It’s the first time we can say that this year.  Time will tell…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/18/times-are-changing-or-are-they/

Jan 16

Warm, But Unsettled Week…

Screen Shot 2017-01-16 at 7.26.31 AMHighlights:

  • Unseasonably warm week
  • Multiple rounds of rain and embedded thunderstorms
  • Eyeing winter’s return next week

Have The Rain Gear Handy…While we’ll enjoy unseasonably mild temperatures, the wet and unsettled theme we’ve been dealing with as of late we’ll continue this week.

Most of the daytime today will feature more dry time than wet with just scattered showers expected before more widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms arrive by nightfall.  Wet and periodically stormy times continue tonight into the early morning hours Tuesday.  After a predawn high in the mid 50s, temperatures will slowly fall during the day Tuesday before remaining steady in the middle to upper 40s for the balance of the afternoon.

We may get a brief (rare) look at the sun Wednesday as we’ll be in between weather systems, but have no fear, as our next storm will be developing to our south and arrive with showers Thursday.  🙂  Rain and perhaps a thunderstorm continue Friday, especially through the first half of the day.

The majority of Saturday will feature dry and warm (early spring-like) conditions, but clouds will increase during the second half of the day and showers will push north into the state at night.  Windy, wet conditions continue Sunday.

Longer-term, forecast models continue to paint a significantly colder, wintry pattern as we go through the last week of the month.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/16/warm-but-unsettled-week/

Jan 15

Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

1.) January, month-to-date, is running slightly above normal at IND (+1.2 F) and nearly 1″ above normal in the precipitation department.  Keeping true to the winter, overall, greatest cold departures are centered over the northern Plains and northern Rockies.

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_20172.)  Showers will creep north overnight into Monday morning, but shouldn’t amount to much.  They will be scattered in nature across central Indiana.

hrrr_ref_indy_183.)  More widespread rain and embedded thunder will develop Monday night into Tuesday morning.  This should amount of widespread half inch to one inch totals across the viewing area.

hires_ref_indy_37

hires_ref_indy_404.)  A moist southwest flow will help push a warmer regime northward for the second half of the week.  Though warm, we’ll also have to deal with periods of rain as disturbances track northeast.  We circle Friday and Sunday as the wettest days and remain optimistic Saturday will feature dry and unseasonably warm conditions (lower-middle 60s).  Between the rainy days Friday and Sunday, additional rainfall totals of 1″-2″ seem like a good bet.

SW Flow

D75.)  The evolution of the pattern just beyond the 7-day period we’ll begin to take on an increasingly wintry look and we remain confident on a flip back to wintry conditions as we roll through the last week of the month.  We’ll have to keep a close eye on a storm system in the 8-10 day period.  It’s obviously way too early to discuss specifics, but this will be the time the pattern is beginning to turn back towards a wintry regime…

ecm_eps_z500a_noram_11

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/15/sunday-afternoon-rambles-2/

Jan 14

January Thaw For The New Week Ahead…

Screen Shot 2017-01-14 at 4.13.32 PMHighlights:

  • Damp, chilly Sunday
  • Milder week ahead
  • Spring-preview late next week

Improvements Coming…Most of tonight will feature dry conditions along with temperatures settling back below freezing (most of central IN will fall into the middle to upper 20s).  Another surge of light precipitation will arrive Sunday morning into the afternoon and this could begin as a period of freezing rain from the city and points north.  Similar to today, we don’t expect any major problems from the freezing rain and all of the region should warm above freezing during the afternoon.

While Monday could feature a quick-hitting shower at any given time, more widespread steady rain will push into central Indiana during the day Tuesday, along with breezy conditions.  Those breezy southwest winds will help give temperatures a boost into the middle 50s for afternoon highs.

We’ll shift that southwest wind around to the northwest Wednesday and this will help push cooler air into the state for mid week.  Despite the cooler feel, we’ll remain well above average with breezy conditions.  (Average highs in central Indiana are in the middle 30s this time of year).

The big news for the latter portion of the forecast period will be a true spring-like feel developing as we rumble into the weekend.  In fact, temperatures will surge well into the 60s next Saturday.  Modeling isn’t in total agreement on rain chances with a moist southwest flow in place.  We’ll take the “optimistic” route at this time and forecast a dry Saturday, understanding that we’ll have to maintain a close eye on things.

Quick heads up, longer term data continues to suggest we’ll flip into a much colder and stormy pattern as we wrap up January and head into February.  Winter is far from over…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/14/january-thaw-for-the-new-week-ahead/

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