Category: Unseasonably Warm

Mar 08

Strong Wind Event; Winter Makes A Comeback…

Highlights:

  • Windy day ahead
  • Colder pattern develops
  • Two snow chances in the days ahead

Hold On To Your Hats…The big story today will be developing strong and gusty winds, especially from the city and points north.  Westerly gusts will approach 50 MPH+ this afternoon and evening.  Hold onto your hats (and steering wheels)!

As we move into the latter portions of the week and into next week, a fast and active weather pattern will develop.  Three disturbances will have at least some impact on our weather between Thursday evening and Tuesday morning.

The first disturbance will result in an increase in cloudiness late Thursday along with an evening shower- especially across far eastern portions of the state.  We’ll turn much colder to close the week and that’s when our second disturbance will approach.  Clouds will increase Saturday and light snow is possible.  Models have trended further south with this disturbance, but we need to keep an eye on this as a last-minute shift north could take place.  As of this update, the most impactful disturbance looks to be the one that arrives Monday into Tuesday.  Accordingly, we’ll forecast developing snow Monday, continuing Tuesday with strong and gusty winds and even colder air.

After a prolonged stretch of spring-like warmth, the upcoming forecast period will serve as harsh reality that Old Man Winter still has some fight left in him.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/08/strong-wind-event-winter-makes-a-comeback/

Mar 06

Rain Coverage Increases; Weekend Winter Storm Brewing?

Highlights:

  • Increasing coverage of showers and t-storms
  • Mostly dry mid week period
  • Weekend wintry fun and games

Busy Week Of Weather…The week is off to an unseasonably mild start as a strong southerly flow continues ahead of an approaching cold front.  That cold front will continue to push east today and sweep through the state Tuesday morning.  Coverage of showers will increase as we go through the late morning and early afternoon hours, but there will still be periods of dry weather today.  Best coverage of rain and thunderstorms will arrive overnight when most are sleeping and end (from northeast to southwest) Tuesday morning.

Mid week is relatively quiet as we begin to transition from a spring-like beginning to more of a winter-like close.  A weak weather system could offer up a few showers Thursday evening, but enthusiasm isn’t high for this to be a big deal.

A more significant storm will move in over the weekend.  This is a complex set-up, but we note anomalously cold air poised to spill south from Canada.  Given the trend of the winter, we’re treading lightly from hitting the big snow theme models currently suggest.  That said, the set-up is one that raises an eyebrow for the potential of a late season, impactful, winter event.  Stay tuned this week as we fine tune the details moving forward.  A word of caution, if we get snow down this weekend, we’ll have to lower temperatures even further for Sunday…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/06/rain-coverage-increases-weekend-winter-storm-brewing/

Mar 05

Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

1.)  It’s another unseasonably pleasant afternoon across central Indiana.  Despite a gusty SW breeze (open county is approaching 40 MPH throughout central IN Sunday afternoon), the sunshine and warm temperatures are providing a phenomenal second half of the weekend.

Temperatures are running 20+ degrees above normal this afternoon.

2.)  Clouds will begin to increase tonight and give way to showers as we open the work week.  There will be plenty of dry time Monday morning into the afternoon, but a passing shower will remain in our forecast.  Heavier rain and embedded thunderstorms will arrive on the scene Monday night into the wee morning hours Tuesday.  As a whole, we expect between 0.50-1″ of rain, overall, by Tuesday morning.

Greatest rainfall coverage will arrive overnight Monday night.

3.)  We’ll trend cooler for the mid week stretch, but nothing “cold” for this time of year.  In fact, temperatures will remain above average as high pressure provides dry conditions.

Weak high pressure builds in for mid week.

4.)  Confidence is high on an active period of weather arriving for the weekend into potentially early parts of next week.  That said, despite overall high confidence on a busy time of things, the specifics remain “murky,” at best.  It’ll be important to check back for updates on the weekend forecast as we progress through the upcoming week.  Solutions range anywhere from a period of rain and storms to possibly some wintry “mischief.”  One thing seems certain and that’s for a period of colder air (below normal) arriving in the 8-10 day period.  In fact, the latest European model suggests overnight low in the 10s late next weekend.

The weather turns active next weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/05/sunday-afternoon-rambles-3/

Mar 04

AM Snow Gives Way To Increasing Sunshine…

Highlights:

  • AM snow ends
  • Windy warm-up coming
  • Early week storms

Snowy For Some This Morning…A narrow band of heavy snow has deposited 1″-2″ for neighborhoods northeast of the city.  Places like Anderson, New Castle, and Richmond were the “sweet spot” for this event.  Thank you for the reports!

As quickly as the snow hit, it’ll depart and be a distant memory this afternoon, as increasingly sunny conditions develop, along with moderating temperatures.  This is the beginning of a weekend warm-up that will send temperatures into the lower 60s Sunday afternoon though we will have to deal with a possible passing shower and strong and gusty southwest winds.

A cold front will sweep through the state to open the work week and help increase overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms Monday- especially during the evening and nighttime hours.  Early showers Tuesday will end and give way to drier, cooler conditions for mid week.

Our next storm system will approach next weekend.  The work week will end with another windy warm-up, along with showers by evening.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall:  Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall:  0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/04/am-snow-gives-way-to-increasing-sunshine/

Mar 03

Lots Of Sunshine To Close The Work Week; Moderating This Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Sunny, cold close to the work week
  • AM light snow Saturday
  • Moderating with storm chances early next week

Coats And Sunglasses Required Today…We’re closing out the work week with plentiful sunshine, but temperatures will run several degrees below average.  Heavier coats will be required out the door this morning with wind chills in the teens.

A warm front will lift north through the state Saturday morning and should push an area of snow northeast with it.  The potential is present for a coating to less than 1″ of snow as this occurs early Saturday morning, especially for area northeast of the city, itself.  Despite the quick hit of morning snow, sunshine should return later in the day and our winds will shift to the southwest.  This will help temperatures recover late in the day and the moderating trend continues Sunday with PM showers.

A cold front will sweep through the region Monday into Tuesday morning with widespread showers and thunderstorms.  After a warm start to the day, temperatures will fall through the daytime hours Tuesday.  Dry, windy conditions will be with us as we push through the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/03/lots-of-sunshine-to-close-the-work-week-moderating-this-weekend/

Mar 01

Turning Colder To Close The Work Week…

Highlights:

  • Showers with falling temperatures today
  • Rain and snow showers Thursday
  • Cold close to the work week
  • Windy weekend warm-up comes with showers

Downward Trend…Showers will increase in coverage this afternoon and evening as temperatures fall into the 40s (this afternoon) and 30s (this evening).  Certainly plan to carry the jacket with you to work and school as you’ll need it on the way home this evening.

Our next weather maker will be a fast-moving clipper system that will arrive Thursday afternoon.  Gusty showers will blow through central Indiana through the afternoon and evening hours before transitioning to snow showers and embedded heavier squalls (capable of a quick coating where the heavier squalls occur).  A dry, but cold close to the work week is ahead with highs Friday only in the middle 30s.

Just as quickly as the cold air hits, it’ll leave this weekend as a windy warm-up develops.  A flurry or sprinkle is possible Saturday as the warm front lifts north and then showers will increase in coverage, along with a strengthening southwest wind (gusts of 40 MPH +) Sunday.

A strong cold front looks to blow through the region Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms a good bet Monday night into Tuesday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting
  • Rainfall:1.00″-1.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/01/turning-colder-to-close-the-work-week/

Feb 27

Unseasonably Warm And Stormy Weather Gives Way To Late Week Chill…

Monday evening is running much warmer than this time Sunday across most of the central, including right here in Indiana.

This warmer regime is the sign of stormy times that will develop as we move into Tuesday.  An initial round of showers and thunderstorms will impact central Indiana Tuesday morning and the HRRR forecast radar is picking up on this nicely, especially during the predawn hours.

The wet, stormy start to the day will give way to a mostly dry time of things through the majority of the daylight hours Tuesday, but our concentration will be on the Tuesday night-Wednesday morning period, as the potential exists for some rather turbulent weather.

We note the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center outlines all of the region for the chance of severe weather Tuesday night and also note the possibility the “enhanced” risk area may expand in future updates.  Additionally, given some of the ingredients we’re observing this evening, there’s also the possibility we may see an upgrade to a “moderate” risk for portions of the region.  It’ll be particularly important to pay attention to weather updates Tuesday night.  Primary concerns are for large hail and damaging winds in a possible squall line that develops ahead of an approaching cold front.  Additionally, if storms develop ahead of the primary line of storms, the potential exists for a couple of tornadoes.  Have a means of getting the latest watches and warnings Tuesday night.

Modeled radar suggests things may begin to get “busy” around these parts late evening and during the overnight.  The latest high resolution NAM (hot off the press as of this update) paints a rather ominous look as midnight nears Wednesday morning.

We then note modeling bringing the squall line through central Indiana during the overnight and predawn hours.  We’ll have to fine tune timing as we move through the day Tuesday, but we bracket the hours of 2a and 6a when a concentrated line of strong to severe storms rumbles through the state (northwest to southeast).  Hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out.

Our weather will turn quieter, but colder, as Wednesday progresses into Wednesday evening, including blustery conditions with falling temperatures.

A fast-moving clipper system will dive southeast Thursday evening into early Friday morning and this could produce a snow shower, or two, across the region, but shouldn’t amount to much from a snow perspective (keeping true to the tune of the winter, heh?).  The bigger story will be the “rude” feel to the air mass as we wrap up the work week, as highs only reach the upper 30s with a gusty wind.

That said, the chilly late week conditions won’t last long, and a gusty southwesterly air flow will develop as early as Saturday.  This will help give temperatures a significant boost Saturday afternoon after a cold start to the day.  60° is possible Saturday afternoon and the mercury may approach 70° Sunday!

More updates in the AM!  Have a great night, friends!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/02/27/unseasonably-warm-and-stormy-weather-gives-way-to-late-week-chill/

Feb 26

Looking Ahead To Spring…

Meteorological spring begins in a few days (runs March through May).  We’ve already touched on the expected busy severe weather season and want to dedicate this post towards looking deeper into the weather pattern and the resulting precipitation and temperature impacts.

The latest longer-range data continues to be in very good agreement on the upper air pattern.  In short, the balance of the spring season looks to offer up a continued theme of warmer than average temperatures for our region.  (Not saying we won’t have to deal with a wintry “trick or two” over the first couple weeks of March).  When we look at spring, as a whole, we believe it’ll be one known more for the warmth and active, stormy times.

CFSv2 March Temperature Anomalies

CFSv2 April Temperature Anomalies

CFSv2 May Temperature Anomalies

JAMSTEC March through May Temperature Anomalies

The latest JMA monthly idea is one that has to raise an eye brow as it would paint an early summer across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.  Anomalous warmth (true summer-like air) would develop with a strong ridge over the Great Lakes and northeast.  This is something we’ll have to keep an eye on.  A big caveat here is how strong and quickly the coming El Nino develops.  It should be noted, El Nino years can feature some of the hottest air early, not late, in the summer season (relative to averages), and the JMA would, indeed, yield an early summer with such a look.

JMA May Forecast 500mb Pattern

It should also be noted modeling is suggesting a wet look, locally, especially during the early portions of spring.  The JAMSTEC and JMA are particularly bullish on a wet pattern.

JAMSTEC March through May Precipitation Anomalies

JMA March through May Precipitation Anomalies

The CFSv2 hits the wet March hard before a drier regime mid and late spring.

March Precipitation Anomalies

April Precipitation Anomalies

May Precipitation Anomalies

In closing, we seem to have a bit of a bumpy ride in front of us as meteorological spring begins.  While Old Man Winter hasn’t been seen much as of late, don’t be shocked if he makes his presence felt a few more times through the first half of March- both from a cold and snow perspective.  That said, data really points towards more of an overall warm regime developing the second half of the month, and continuing through the majority of spring, for that matter.  We’re keeping a close eye on May for an early summer-like feel to take hold, locally.  Subsequent JMA updates will be monitored closely.  We also remain confident of an active severe weather season.  Note the tendency of model data (above) to pull the mean trough position to the northwest March into April.  The clash of late-season wintry conditions west, combined with unseasonably warm temperatures across the east (not to mention the warmer than average Gulf of Mexico) likely will equal busy times as we progress through the spring severe weather season.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/02/26/looking-ahead-to-spring/

Feb 26

Transitional Week Of Weather…

Highlights:

  • Warming back up
  • Storms around Tuesday-Wednesday
  • Colder late week
  • Windy warm-up next weekend

Don’t Blink…The second half of the weekend has gotten off to a frosty, but bright start!  Unfortunately, clouds will begin to increase this afternoon.  Thankfully, the increasing clouds won’t keep temperatures from getting a significant boost this afternoon compared to the frigid air of Saturday.

A few showers will scoot through the state Monday, but most of these will be confined to the southern third of Indiana and most neighborhoods should remain rain-free.  A more significant storm system will lift northeast Tuesday and this will provide better coverage of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday (especially late in the day) into Wednesday.  After a midnight high, temperatures will fall through the daytime hours Wednesday.

Another fast-moving, weak, weather maker will impact us Thursday evening into Friday morning.  Scattered showers Thursday PM will transition to light snow showers overnight into early Friday morning.  Friday will be chilly, but moderating conditions return as early as Saturday, along with a strong and gusty southwest flow by the afternoon!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace – Dusting
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/02/26/transitional-week-of-weather/

Feb 24

Severe T-storms This Evening Give Way To Much Colder Air This Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Record warmth
  • Severe t-storm potential this evening
  • Scattered snow showers Saturday
  • Active pattern next week

Focused On Severe Weather This Evening…Though the day is beginning on a quiet note, we’re concerned it might not end that way, as strong to severe thunderstorms impact central Indiana this afternoon and evening.  The sunshine this morning is actually something that adds further concern for the potential of explosive thunderstorm development later today.  More specifically, we’re bracketing the hours of 4p and 10p for the likelihood of storms impacting central parts of the state (west to east), and some of these may become severe.  All modes of severe weather are in play today, including large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.  Please have a means of getting the latest warning information and ensure you know your family’s severe plan.  Otherwise, we forecast to shatter the record high today as we zoom all the way into the middle 70s with a gusty southerly wind.

Winter will return with authority tonight and set-up a much colder weekend.  That high in the upper 40s Saturday will actually come at midnight with falling temperatures (most of the daytime hours will feature low-mid 30s with ‘chills in the 20s), windy conditions, and scattered snow showers.

A weak weather system is looking less and less impressive for the second half of the weekend, but we’ll continue to keep a chance of light rain in our forecast by evening.

Better rain chances will begin to ramp up Monday evening and become widespread Tuesday, including the possibility of thunderstorms, as well.  The second half of next week will trend colder…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/02/24/severe-t-storms-this-evening-give-way-to-much-colder-air-this-weekend/

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