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Category: Unseasonably Warm
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/09/video-late-evening-update-on-storms-looking-ahead-into-next-week/
May 09
Timing Out Storm Chances Tonight…
We continue to monitor things closely for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms this evening into tonight. As of this morning, we still believe greatest threats of severe weather…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/09/timing-out-storm-chances-tonight/
May 08
VIDEO: Storms Return Wednesday; Warmth And Humidity Build…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/08/video-storms-return-wednesday-warmth-and-humidity-build/
May 07
Quick Evening Notes: Warm Pattern Grabs The Headlines In The Longer Range…
As we look over the 12z long range guidance, we see a common theme: warmer (dare I say “hotter”) than average. Additionally, most data paints a drier than normal trend Days 10-20, as well.
The GEFS shows eastern ridging gaining control during the period which favors a warmer than normal pattern. Consensus of other data is similar in the upper levels.
At the surface, all three major global models agree on warmth in the long range period, including the GEFS, EPS, and CFSv2:
Guidance suggests below average precipitation during the period. With broad scale ridging in place, we agree on a drier theme compared to normal. While trying to put our finger on the flip from the prolonged cold to warmer was difficult to nail down from March and April, May always looked like a drier than average month from several weeks out. (One note is the potential of active times across the Great Lakes region as “sudden summer” gains steam to the south and stubborn chill refuses to let go to our north. The gradient would promote heavier than normal precipitation relative to average).
Given the agreement in the data, along with some additional pattern drivers, we continue to believe the medium to longer term period (including mid and late May) will feature an overall warmer than average pattern along with drier than normal conditions.
More on the short-term in the morning, including what will be a summer-like feel by late week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/07/quick-evening-notes-warm-pattern-grabs-the-headlines-in-the-longer-range/
May 07
VIDEO: Refreshing Open To The Week Gives Way To Building Late Week Humidity…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/07/video-refreshing-open-to-the-week-gives-way-to-building-late-week-humidity/
May 06
PM Storms Today; Turning Up The Warmth And Humidity Late Week…
Our morning is off to a gorgeous start, including clear skies and pleasant temperatures! Take the coffee out on the front porch this morning and enjoy!
A cold front currently sits off to our northwest and this will move southeast as we head through the afternoon and evening hours. As the front slides through central Indiana, we’ll forecast scattered showers and thundershowers to develop this afternoon, lasting up to around sunset before diminishing.
Drier and slightly cooler air will build in as we open the new work week. Overnight lows will fall into the mid and upper 40s both Monday and Tuesday mornings. High pressure will supply plentiful sunshine.
A broad southwesterly air flow will return as we progress through the latter stages of the work week and head into next weekend. We’ll certainly notice an uptick in humidity by Thursday and that summer-like feel will remain into the weekend. The increased moisture will also result in periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect “splash and dash” variety of storms in a daily fashion beginning Wednesday evening.
While scattered storms will be on the radar daily from midweek on, significant widespread rainfall isn’t expected. There will be some locally heavier amounts, but for the most part across central Indiana, 7-day totals won’t exceed three quarters of an inch.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/06/pm-storms-today-turning-up-the-warmth-and-humidity-late-week/
May 05
VIDEO: Gusty Storms For Some Sunday; Mid-Late May Warmth…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/05/video-gusty-storms-for-some-sunday-mid-late-may-warmth/
May 03
VIDEO: Wrapping Up The Work Week And Looking Ahead…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/03/video-wrapping-up-the-work-week-and-looking-ahead/
May 01
VIDEO: Summer-like Feel Wednesday Helps Fuel Storm Chances; Longer Range Thoughts…
For the first time this spring, you’ll really notice the muggy nature to the air by Wednesday afternoon, as dew points climb from the pleasant 50s (Wednesday morning) to near…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/01/video-summer-like-feel-wednesday-helps-fuel-storm-chances-longer-range-thoughts/
Apr 30
Warmth Dominates; Timing Out Storm Chances Over The Upcoming 10-Day Period…
After a month-to-date temperature anomaly map that looks like this:
…and a year-to-date that looks like this:
…sustained warmth is music to the ears of many Hoosiers! Thankfully, the balance of the upcoming (10) days will feature warmer than average conditions, as illustrated by the latest European ensemble data.
This will include multiple days with high temperatures rising into the 80s over the upcoming 10-day stretch (Tuesday and Wednesday and again next Monday through Wednesday).
As for storm chances, dry times will continue to dominate Tuesday with plentiful sunshine. Clouds will begin to increase Wednesday and we can’t rule out an afternoon shower, but most should still remain dry. Thursday and Friday will offer up the best chances of getting wet, including embedded thunder.
As for rainfall totals, it still appears widespread amounts will check-in in the half inch to one inch range, but a few locally heavier amounts can be expected.
Models continue to dry us out in time for the weekend and all of those important Cinco de Mayo/ Derby plans. An increasingly sunny sky will be with us along with highs in the middle 70s Saturday afternoon! Can you say “perfection?”
Looking ahead, I’m not sold we won’t have to deal with showers Sunday as a disturbance moves nearby (low confidence forecast from this distance). More widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive on the scene late next week…
We also note the majority of longer range guidance trending warmer for May. We’ll have some updated thoughts on that later this week!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/04/30/warmth-dominates-timing-out-storm-chances-over-the-upcoming-10-day-period/