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Category: Unseasonably Warm
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/07/long-range-video-update-changeable-pattern-for-the-2nd-half-of-march-into-april/
Mar 07
All-Access Video: Talk About a Busy Pattern…
Accumulating snow arrives tonight and we look ahead to an active weather pattern…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/07/all-access-video-talk-about-a-busy-pattern/
Mar 06
Running the Gamut; Looking Ahead to April…
We’ll apologize in advance for the long-winded post tonight, but there’s a lot to cover. Not only do we have the accumulating snow on deck, a couple of strong storm systems this weekend into the middle of next week, but the long range pattern is set to turn cold (again) after a mid-month respite. We also want to look ahead to our early thoughts towards April…
Let’s take things one at a time:
Thursday-Friday Snow
While we don’t have major changes to our ongoing snowfall forecast, we have “sagged” the swath of 1″ to 3″ snow south just a hair given the latest computer model guidance. Steadiest snow should fall Thursday night into the predawn hours Friday. We’d anticipate a slick Friday morning commute through the heart of central Indiana.
Snow should exit off to the southeast around, or just before, lunchtime Friday. As always, your ground-truth reports are welcome (feel free to send to us on Twitter or via e-mail).
Warmer Side Of Things
The ‘mean’ trough position will shift to the west (temporarily) and lead to an overall milder time of things for the mid-month stretch. Unfortunately, the milder air will come with a wetter pattern.
This milder, wetter pattern will be highlighted by (2) storms:
I. Saturday, 3/10
II. Tuesday-Wednesday, 3/12-3/13
Both storm systems will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours and embedded thunder. Greatest chances of severe will remain south of central IN with this weekend’s storm, but may be further north next week. We’ll keep a close eye on things and issue Client Briefs if need be as we get closer.
A combination of the GFS and European computer models print-out rainfall totals between 1″ and 2″ over the upcoming 10-days and this seems reasonable given the fact both storm systems will be able to tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture.
From a temperature perspective, the brutal cold will come to an end behind our late week snowmaker. While “transient” chill will follow both of the upcoming storm systems, we’re heading into a much milder pattern, overall, through the mid-March stretch. Mildest air will come directly in front of the storm systems, highlighted by a couple of 60 deg. + days the middle of next week.
Positive PNA takes over
Unfortunately (for lovers of spring), the mid-month warm-up will be only a “tease” as we’re set to trend cooler, relative to normal, for the last 10 days of the month. The reason? A developing positive PNA.
To no surprise, we see the cooler pattern returning on the computer models:
Not only will we turn colder to close the month, but Thursday likely won’t be our last accumulating snow of the season…
Looking Towards April
Despite the late-March “set back” to a chilly time of things, we continue to think a more sustained “stick and hold” spring pattern looms around the corner. In fact, we agree with the latest CFSv2 delivering a warmer than normal pattern for April, as a whole, to the eastern portion of the country.
Note that as we go, the model is getting warmer for April with each passing day. As things stand now, we think the trough will pull back to the west with a more sustained ridge in place across the eastern portion of the country in April. With this, a wetter than average regime likely awaits, including an uptick in severe chances further north into the region.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/06/running-the-gamut-looking-ahead-to-april/
Mar 06
“Hectic” March Pattern Rumbles Along…
After tomorrow’s accumulating snow event, we’re tracking 2 storm systems and a temporary warm-up over the weekend into next week. Don’t get used to the warmer air, as a positive…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/06/hectic-march-pattern-rumbles-along/
Mar 04
VIDEO: All-Access Long Range Update…
This evening’s long range video update discusses the pattern drivers behind the late-March weather pattern…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/04/video-all-access-long-range-update/
Mar 03
Snow Update And Looking Ahead Towards Mid-March…
Snow will overspread central Indiana through the late morning hours into the afternoon.
While the overall idea where the accumulating snow would fall was a good one from early week, our initial expected amounts won’t come to fruition. The reason? The storm system is much weaker and faster moving than originally modeled.
Accordingly, this is a 1″ to 2″ type event for most of the area. The majority of the snow will fall from noon to 5p.
This same storm system will be responsible for a severe weather outbreak, including the possibility of a couple of strong tornadoes, across the Deep South this afternoon.
Back here on the home front, MUCH colder air will pour into the region this evening, remaining in place into the new work week. Back-to-back nights with lows in the upper 0s to lower 10s can be expected across central Indiana Monday and Tuesday mornings.
This is all part of the overall colder than normal first half of March, powered by the SOI crash (several week ago), deeply negative EPO, and MJO rumbling through the cold phases.
Additional storm dates to keep note off include Thursday night into Friday (more of a wintry threat with the 3/7-3/8 system) and Saturday into Sunday (potential strong thunderstorms with the system on 3/9-3/10).
Looking ahead, it still appears the mid-March warm-up is on track as the EPO flips to positive.
With that warm-up will also come a return of heavier precipitation events and a continued overall active storm track across the region. Precipitation looks to run above average for the mid-month stretch.
We’ll dig deeper early week on what lies ahead as we close the month of March and look ahead towards April…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/03/snow-update-and-looking-ahead-towards-mid-march/
Feb 28
VIDEO: Updated Thoughts Around This Weekend’s Winter Storm And The Pattern Through March…
Here’s our latest thinking around this weekend’s winter storm and a long range update through the month of March…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/28/video-updated-thoughts-around-this-weekends-winter-storm-and-the-pattern-through-march/
Feb 28
Reviewing The New JMA Weeklies; Do We Pull Out Of The Unseasonably Cold Pattern Later In March?
The updated JMA Weeklies are in and we wanted to take a moment to review those with you this morning. A more extensive long range post will arrive tonight. In addition, we’ll also have an updated video discussion around the potential (and increasing likelihood) of a winter storm this weekend later this evening.
Week 1
In agreement with the majority of the other data, the model overwhelms the pattern with unseasonably cold air. Note the anomalous pattern, including strong AK ridge that is helping “dislodge” the late season arctic air. The other item that stands out? The southeast ridge is no longer (for now).
Week 2
Cold is forecast to linger in the Week 2 timeframe, but it’s beginning to modify from the early month bitter shot. Secondly, the high latitude pattern has completely reversed from Week 1 (note the lower heights) and the southeast ridge is showing signs of re-emerging.
Weeks 3-4
Eastern ridging is shown during the mid to late month stretch and gives further reason to believe our mid month warm-up idea has merit. With this, the model also delivers an overall wetter pattern for the 2nd half of the month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/28/reviewing-the-new-jma-weeklies-do-we-pull-out-of-the-unseasonably-cold-pattern-later-in-march/
Feb 26
All-Access Video: Looking Deeper Into The Reasons To The Cold Open To March & Mid-Month Changes…
Discussing the reasons behind the frigid open to March and the mid-month changes that await…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/26/all-access-video-looking-deeper-into-the-reasons-to-the-cold-open-to-march-mid-month-changes/
Feb 25
Frigid Open To March And Late Month Musings; Reviewing The NEW European Weeklies…
Average temperatures through the 1st (5) days of the month include highs of 46 F and a low of 29 F at Indianapolis. Instead, a frigid pattern will grip the region as we move through early March, including highs that will likely only top out in the lower to middle 20s and lows in the upper single digits to lower 10s as we move through the first week of the month (coldest centered on Sunday through next Wednesday).
Should we get any sort of snow down during the period (still up for debate as of this evening), lows will likely approach 0 F. The best opportunity for accumulating snow over the upcoming week would come Friday night into Saturday, but confidence remains low. Thereafter, we prefer the “suppressed” ideas currently portrayed by modeling as more meaningful winter storm threats impact the lower Ohio/ TN Valley and southern Appalachian region- especially with such an anomalously cold pattern in place.
Speaking of cold, the deep and expansive snowpack across the central and northern Plains won’t allow the late season taste from the arctic to modify as much as it may otherwise. As the frigid air mass settles southeast, below zero wind chill values are a good bet early next week across the northern half of the state. “Tap the breaks” on meteorological winter kicking off March 1st…
With that said, the NAO and AO are expected to remain positive and while initially “trumped” by the significantly negative EPO, this will trend positive by mid-month. These all suggest the cold is limited and that there shouldn’t be any change to the idea that we really begin to feel more spring-like by the middle of March. This is backed up by the continued idea that the MJO rumbles into Phase 4 by mid-March, as well (again argues for warmth).
Sure enough, longer range models show the ridging and associated warmer times ahead:
It should be noted that with the mean trough position taking up shop across the western portion of the country mid-March, not only should we moderate, but we should also see a return of wetter/ stormier times. With the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) running above normal, early season severe weather outbreaks will have to be closely monitored…
The new European Weeklies in this evening also back up the idea of an unseasonably cold 1st half of the month giving way to milder conditions by mid month. The model paints a drier than normal pattern over the Ohio Valley and Mid West over the next couple of weeks before wetter signals return by the middle of March.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/25/frigid-open-to-march-and-late-month-musings-reviewing-the-new-european-weeklies/