Category: Unseasonably Warm

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Mar 23

Teleconnections Still Aren’t Playing Nice; Does This Change In April?

• Filed under AO, Client, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, MJO, NAO, PNA, Rain, Spring, Unseasonably Warm

• March 23, 2020

Seemingly all winter, we’ve been unable to get the NAO, AO, EPO, PNA, and MJO to cooperate and align. The end result is an overall pattern that has been unable to produce widespread, sustained cold. As we progress through the remainder of the month, the contradicting signals will continue.

Despite the negative NAO (a signal notorious for drawn out cold patterns this time of year), the deeply negative PNA and developing strongly positive EPO will hold off any significant cold. Even in the immediate term, notice how the signals are’t matching up (i.e. strongly positive NAO with a negative EPO).

The MJO is forecast to rumble into Phase 4 to close the month and this is also a phase that favors eastern ridging.

Given the above, to no surprise, the consensus of model data is for a warm, wet close to the month.

Does this pattern change in April and we actually see some alignment with our teleconnections? What about the MJO? Does the current movement continue and do we get into the colder Phase 1 as currently shown? Interesting times ahead as we sort through the data. Our official April Outlook will be online late week.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/03/23/teleconnections-still-arent-playing-nice-does-this-change-in-april/

Mar 21

March To-Date And Looking Ahead…

• Filed under 10-day, AG Report, Client, Ensemble Discussion, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, Spring, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

• March 21, 2020

March to-date is running warmer and wetter than average across not only central Indiana, but a good chunk of the central and eastern part of the country.

For comparative purposes, our March Temperature Outlook is above. It’ll be interesting to see how everything shakes out by month’s end.

We anticipated a wet month, as well, into the middle MS Valley into the Ohio Valley, and eastern Lakes/ Northeast.

Indianapolis is running a little more than 1″ above normal in the rainfall department, and this will grow larger as we progress through the next (10) days.

This upcoming week, alone, we expect storm systems to deliver rain Sunday PM, Tuesday PM, and again late Thursday into Friday. Widespread central Indiana rainfall totals are currently pegged between 1″ and 1.5″, but given the pattern, it wouldn’t surprise me to see those numbers increase as we go forward. Thankfully, there aren’t any storms on the immediate horizon that look to be big severe weather producers, locally.

Despite this weekend’s chill, the balance of what’s left in the month should run well above average across the eastern half of the country.

More on what we think April will provide a bit later…

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