Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather

Quiet Weather For Now….

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Moderation Continues; Windy Saturday…A weak frontal boundary will slip through the state this afternoon/ evening and could offer up a snow flurry.  Otherwise it’s a rather uneventful forecast until Saturday when we introduce a gusty southwesterly wind (up to 30 MPH).  The bright side of that southwesterly breeze will be that temperatures will reach the middle 40s.

The milder air will be very brief as a cold front moves through Saturday night and provides snow shower potential as early as Sunday morning.  We should remain dry for the better part of the first half of next week, but we’ll be keeping a close watch for a potential winter storm brewing the middle to latter portions of next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: Trace
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting – 1″

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Relatively Quiet Now, But It Won’t Last Long…

Enjoy our relatively quiet and briefly milder weather pattern as mid and long range guidance suggests we reload the cold with authority and associated wintry precipitation threats…

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Bitterly Cold Start, But Moderation On The Way…

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“Relaxation” Of The Bitterly Cold Pattern…That forecast package title sure wouldn’t suffice describing the weather outside this morning.  It’s a downright bitter feel, including below zero temperatures throughout north-central Indiana.  Patchy freezing fog and scattered flurries are also with us this morning.  With some sunshine later, we’ll “warm” into the lower 20s this afternoon.  A few flurries may fly tonight as a weak disturbance moves through the region.

Sunshine will be with us to wrap up the work week along with slowly moderating temperatures.  Average highs this time of the year are in the middle 30s so we’ll be closer to average Thursday and Friday- though it’ll likely feel much warmer simply based off just how cold it’s been as of late.  Gusty southwest winds will blow milder air in here briefly Saturday as temperatures climb into the middle 40s.

A cold front will sweep the state Sunday morning with a possible rain shower that’ll quickly transition to scattered snow showers as the colder air filters back into the region.  The next storm system of note arrives early next week.

Upcoming 7-day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.20″

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Looking Ahead…

January is off to a colder than average start across a large portion of the country, including the Hoosier state:

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomThe snow and ice pack has expanded over the past couple of weeks in rather significant fashion:

nsm_depth_2015011205_National

Two storm systems have offered up busy times over the Ohio Valley the past week. Note liquid equivalent numbers the past (7) days- most significant over central Indiana.  Most of this has been in the form of wintry precipitation (snow and ice).

nws_precip_indy_7

A weak weather system may offer up light snow chances mid week.  The high resolution NAM and European print off light snow while other models “see” us mainly dry mid week.

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The other big story in the short term will be more bitterly cold arctic air (single digits tonight and close to zero Wednesday morning).

While we’ll certainly “warm” compared to the freezer we’ve been in the first two weeks of January, sneaky arctic highs remain on the field and will put a dent in the air masses from reaching unseasonably mild levels for any length of time this weekend and Week 2.  See Friday’s GFS output and the sneaky arctic high north:

gfs_ptype_slp_east_18

The next significant storm system brews around the 20th (give or take a day, or two) and could offer up rain or a more wintry option.  Keep a close eye on the period 01.20 – 01.23.

Thereafter, the arctic hounds likely come calling again as the period quickly returns to “lock and load” cold late January into February.  The European and GFS ensembles both show a rebuilding blocking AK ridge and suggest arctic air floods the country yet again as cross-polar flow gets involved:

GFSensembleslateJan

It’s all part of a package that should be the beginning of a colder than average and stormy mid and late winter stretch.  Sea surface temperature anomalies are a textbook setup for a very wintry time of things for our neck of the woods.  Note the Modoki El Nino and warm waters sitting off the PAC NW- both cold/ stormy indicators here:

SSTLateWinterSetUp

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Ice Storm Warning…

Freezing rain (initially may be mixed with sleet) overspreads central Indiana between 1p-3p. We advise to get any and all travel done prior to 1p and plan to stay in…

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