VIDEO: Accumulating Snow Tuesday…
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Another Arctic Shot Inbound…
Highlights:
- Even colder this week than last
- Light snow chances
- Bigger storm next weekend
Bitterly Cold Week Ahead…We’ll kick off the work week with mostly dry, but mostly cloudy and continued cold conditions. Be careful if traveling early in the morning as some refreezing may take place across central IN during the overnight.
Reinforcing arctic air will begin to blow into town mid week and an area of light snow may precede this next arctic punch to the gut Tuesday. Scattered snow showers and flurries will fly in the bitterly cold, arctic, air mass Wednesday and Thursday. Along with highs only in the teens Thursday, expect below zero wind chills.
Eyes will then shift to the end of the week as our next storm of significance approaches. This storm appears to be stronger than this past weekend’s system, but similar to this weekend’s overall pattern, we expect a “mild up” and mostly a liquid event across central parts of the state. The primary reason? Lack of high latitude blocking to keep the storm track south (more on that in another post later tonight or Monday). Add in a “feisty” southeast ridge that keeps flexing it’s muscle and you have the makings for what’s likely another cutter to the Lakes. Unlike this current event, we will have to keep an eye on a potential second wave of moisture moving along the front Sunday as the arctic air returns.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
- Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.00″
Buckle Up; Active Winter Pattern Is Only Beginning…
Highlights:
- Very cold with snow showers diminishing
- Messy second half of the weekend
- Awaiting our next storm mid week
- Frigid air awaits
Wintry Hits Are Lining Up…Fresh arctic air combined with even the slightest bit of upper energy can produce an overachieving snow shower event. As was the case overnight with many neighborhoods through central IN accumulating a coating to around 1″ of snow. Take it slow this morning and leave extra time to reach your destination. Bitterly cold air continues to wrap up the work week and head into the weekend (keep in mind our average high and low are in the lower 40s and middle 20s, respectfully). As we look through the upcoming 7-day period, temperatures will run significantly below average throughout.
Our next storm system is dialed up this weekend. Clouds will increase as we progress through the second half of the day Saturday and light snow will develop late Saturday night into Sunday morning. As the area of low pressure tracks from northern MO into the Great Lakes, we’ll get into a milder southerly flow Sunday. This will help bring in enough warm air to transition snow to rain during the day Sunday. Beforehand, a light accumulation of snow is possible in and around Indianapolis (more on potential amounts this time tomorrow). Heavier snow will pile up across northern Indiana. Precipitation should shut off rather quickly Sunday night and we’ll be in between systems Monday.
By Tuesday, our attention will turn northwest as we await the arrival of another arctic cold front. As the front moves in, modeling suggests multiple waves of energy move along the boundary, throwing moisture into the cold air and creating a rather snowy scenario as we progress through mid week. We need to get through the weekend first, but this could also be an impactful event. Very windy and frigid conditions move in Wednesday into Thursday, including sub-zero wind chills. Additional snow chances await next weekend…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 2″- 5″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″
Busy Winter Pattern…
Highlights:
- Arctic air blows in tonight
- Winter storm potential this weekend
- Another blast of arctic air next week
Busy Times Ahead…The fun and active winter pattern has arrived and will keep us forecasters on our toes as we go through the next couple weeks. Early sunshine will give way to an increasingly cloudy sky this afternoon and a couple snow flurries or scattered light snow showers may precede the arctic plunge this evening. Snow lovers, unfortunately the arctic wave didn’t materialize as we once thought. (Hang in there, you have many more snow opportunities ahead). We’ll turn windy tonight and wind chills will fall into the single digits by Thursday morning. We’ll stay dry, but cold to wrap up the work week.
Eyes will then shift to the weekend as a developing storm system pushes snow into the region Saturday night. Snow and/ or a wintry mix will continue Sunday. Where this remains all snow, it’s likely to be a “plowable” event. We still need to fine tune the details over the next couple of days to hone in on just where the mixing line will set up. Thinking now is that from Indianapolis and points north, this is mostly a snow event, but stay tuned.
Another round of snow and wind will blow into town early next week. This will likely be ahead of an even colder push of air by the middle part of next week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 3″ – 5″
- Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″
Would You Rather Be In The Game Fighting To Win, Or Sitting On The Bench?
The pattern over the upcoming 10-15 days presents a whole slew of challenges, but has the potential to be one winter enthusiasts remember for a long time. Arctic air is beginning to press and will eventually overwhelm the pattern by the end of the week. Additionally, a second and third surge of arctic air will be inbound next week. Each arctic plunge may become more severe as we go, especially if we can get a snowpack down. The potential is on the table for sub-zero temperatures (not even counting wind chills) by mid-month. That, my friends, is not normal for December, and is in stark contrast from Decembers of recent memory. Whether or not we get one “big ticket” event, or deal with a parade of storms that lay snow down is up for debate and will require burning the midnight oil in the good ole weather office as we progress through the next couple weeks.
The overall set-up is certainly an intriguing one. Cross-polar flow seeds pressing arctic air into the pattern (again, it comes in “waves” over the next couple weeks, each subsequently stronger). What’s of particular interest is the battle that develops between a tag-team of ridges- SW and SE (at times these will put up more resistance than the other). Long-time Hoosiers know that when cross-polar flow gets involved it can “suppress” storms, but rest easy in knowing that the SE ridge will provide resistance. In fact, some across the lower Ohio and TN Valleys may eventually complain that the southeast ridge is providing too much resistance.
As confident as we are in the overall dramatic flip in the pattern to one capable of producing severe winter weather over the next couple weeks, per usual, the devil is in the details. Expect a tight gradient between areas where heavy snow begins to stack up and little to nothing- at least initially. Additionally, depending how things evolve, icing events may eventually require attention for portions of the lower Ohio Valley and TN Valley as that shallow arctic air “oozes” south over what may become quite the impressive snowpack north. This will require further attention in week 2.
At the end of the day, there will be “haves” and “have nots” when it comes to storms (always are) and each will require our attention and fine tuning. However, if you’re a lover of winter weather, it’s hard not to sit back and smile at what’s in front of us over the upcoming couple weeks, especially compared to the past couple Decembers.
Needless to say, we’re on the field and in the game…