Mar 10
In the midst of trying to keep Bo, our youngest golden doodle, from becoming a tremendous distraction in this morning’s video, here are some thoughts on what lies ahead over…
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Mar 09
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Mar 08
We note the modeling continues to want to keep the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) negative into late month. As mentioned in previous discussions, the NAO is “king” late winter and spring.
It should be no surprise that the GEFS 5-day temperature anomaly shows widespread below normal air centered on March 22nd.
This doesn’t mean brief surges of warmth, originating in the southern Plains, can’t shoot into the Ohio Valley for a couple of days. Perhaps we’ll “luck out” and enjoy a briefly milder time for St. Patrick’s Day. This does, however, mean that overall we have a long, long way to go before “stick and hold” spring can arrive, locally, and the balance of the upcoming 2-3 weeks looks colder than average.
Side note: The upcoming couple weeks looks drier than average for our region, while the TN Valley into the Carolinas remains abnormally wet. Our friends in the southern Plains continue to deal with dry times and the drought will only worsen in coming weeks there…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-road-ahead-to-sustained-spring/
Mar 07
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Mar 06
The block continues to do it’s dirty work. An active pattern will continue for the foreseeable future and models will struggle handling the all-important specifics until a couple days before the event(s)- if not the day of.
The first few days of March have gotten off to a warmer than average start, but the coming 5-10 days will run colder than average across a large portion of our region.
Perhaps of more importance, and a greater focus, locally, is the potential one of these storms will slow down and intensify into something more significant than a 12-24 hour period of snow showers and squalls. The first contender arrives over the upcoming weekend, but with this being 4-5 days out, confidence remains low.
We note the latest GFS continues to “string out” the energy. The end result would be the potential of some mixed rain and snow showers late weekend into early in the work week, but nothing much more than that.
However, it’s important to understand model biases from this distance. So often, the GFS can rush things along in the medium range, only to later correct as time draws closer. If things slow, the associated energy will merge and result in the possibility of a significant, if not major, late-winter storm for portions of the Ohio Valley. As it is, a few of the GEFS ensemble members show this potential.
Unfortunately, there’s no way to be more specific from this distance. It’s easy to see both arguments (for and against a more significant storm) from this point, but with high latitude blocking in place (an ingredient missing most of the time from this winter, and several of the past few winters), we most certainly need to keep close tabs on subsequent model runs. Long-time Hoosiers remember when storms of significance actually did, indeed, impact the area. 🙂
It won’t take much in this pattern for things to slow down enough for a non event to become a big event…
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