Jul 16
Right off the bat, we tend to lean more in the direction of the 12z GFS and its’ associated cooler look next week, rather than the warm European. It’s a…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/16/at-odds-with-some-of-the-modeling-in-the-mid-long-range/
Jun 29
With only a few days left of June, thoughts are turning to the 4th of July holiday, getting those summer vacations taken care of before school starts back, and pre season football practice starting up.
June will finish as one of the wettest on record, and coming on the heels of a very dry May, we’re actually right where we should be from a year-to-date precipitation perspective.
Here are some highlights we’re focusing in on that’ll impact our July weather:
June will finish as a top 5-10 wettest June on record for many communities throughout our immediate region. With the wet conditions, it’s very tough to get any sort of long-lasting truly hot weather and while we’re certain to have plenty of warm, humid days during the upcoming four weeks (it is July, after all), we don’t anticipate any sort of significant heat wave. We fully expect being able to save on cooling costs when compared to normal. 
We also note a highly amplified MJO, or Madden-Julian oscillation.
In July, phases 6-7 are cool signals for our region.
We note sea surface temperatures are quite warm off the eastern seaboard and in the Gulf of Mexico. While this doesn’t have a direct impact on our weather here in regards to temperature, it can suggest some southeast and eastern ridging at times. When we look at the upper air pattern below, we note the region will likely be in between predominant ridge positions east and west for July. The end result for our particular part of the country would be a cooler and continued unsettled time of things for the better part of July.
*As a side note, this sort of water profile does “raise an eyebrow” for potential tropical activity in the Gulf and potentially along the east coast, and that’s something that we’ll have to keep a close eye on as we progress into the heart of the season.
We sort through a variety of data to help build our weekly (client based) and monthly upper air charts. While we can’t share all of those forecast models here directly with you (due to licensing), a combination of GFS ensemble data, CFSv2, and European weeklies have helped us build this upper air pattern for July.
This would provide continued cooler than normal times (particularly daytime highs, considering the wet ground) and a busy time tracking cold fronts and individual disturbances that will ignite frequent showers and thunderstorms.
“Average” July weather for IND includes mid 80s for highs, mid 60s for lows, and 4.5″ of rainfall. In summary, we anticipate July 2015 to run 2-3 degrees below average and precipitation to run above normal by a couple inches. We think we just keep on rolling down the tracks from the wet and active regime put into place in June. Time will tell!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/29/july-outlook/
Jun 19
1.) A wet day is ahead for central & southern IN as the combination of a stalled front and Bill’s remnant moisture work in. Rain has already been heavy just…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/19/friday-morning-rambles-2/
Jun 18
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/18/thursday-evening-video-update-3/
Jun 18
Highlights:
The day is dawning with overcast skies and humid conditions. Dew points in the lower 70s coupled with lower 70 degree air temperatures have things feeling very tropical. Showers and thunderstorms will fire later this afternoon and a few of these could become strong to severe. With the moisture-laden air mass in place, torrential rainfall will remain likely with storms.
As we shift into Friday and Saturday all eyes will be on the remnant moisture of what once was Tropical Storm Bill. Latest model data focuses in on southern IN for the greatest threat of widespread heavy rain and potential flash flooding, including rainfall amounts of 3″ to 4″ in spots. We’ll continue to keep a close eye on the precise track of Bill’s remnants, but, as of now, folks downstate are at highest risk of flooding problems.
As we move into next week the active and stormy times continue. There are questions in regards to an expanding heat dome. Latest data has backed down dramatically on the potential heat next week. With the wet ground in place it’s hard to argue with that idea.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1.5″ – 2″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/18/afternoon-storms-watching-bills-remnants/
Jun 16
Tropical Storm Bill will make landfall later this morning along the central TX coast. Models handle the track of Bill differently in the days ahead, but we must continue…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/16/watching-bill/
Jun 15
Highlights:
We’re waking up to similar weather conditions that we dealt with to close the weekend- scattered heavy downpours and very humid. It certainly won’t rain the entire day, but scattered storms will bubble up again as we progress into the afternoon and evening. With the humid air mass locked in, any shower or storm that develops will produce torrential downpours.
A frontal boundary will slip into the region tomorrow and provide enough lift to present a strong to severe thunderstorm threat Tuesday. We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things. This front will stall out near the area and serve as a focal point for thunderstorm development through the upcoming few days.
The tropics continue to be of interest later this week, but we stress that forecast models are really struggling with handling the details. Solutions range from a flood threat presented by the European and Canadian; however the GFS would suggest the tropical remnants don’t get involved in our pattern. We’re leaning more towards the Euro/ Canadian blend as of now as we feel the SE ridge will help steer the tropical remnants northeast into the Ohio Valley late week (timing may have to be find tuned as we draw closer). Again, stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2″ – 3″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/15/humid-stormy-times-continue-watching-the-tropics/
Jun 14
Today is the beginning of several active days around these parts. Over the course of the next few days severe weather and heavy rainfall will keep us on our toes…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/14/busy-times-in-the-forecast-office/
Sep 16
Several interesting weather items are on the docket and each will have to be dealt with as they come over the course of the upcoming 7 days. Some of the headlines include a brief warm-up Saturday, weekend rain that could include a tropical connection Sunday, and another big shot of October-like chill next week.
While we have a few more days of below normal temperatures in front of us, we eye at least one day where temperatures will manage to climb above normal and that’s Saturday. All indications still suggest we’ll be very close, if not a degree or two higher, than the 80 degree mark along with a nice southwest air flow in place Saturday. All-in-all, it’ll be a great day to take care of any early-autumn yard work that’s needing to get done.
Changes brew Sunday as a cold front draws near. This is where questions lie and they actually have to do with Tropical Storm Odile (currently all the way to our southwest over the central Baja California peninsula region). 
While the GFS and European forecast models still aren’t interested in “welcoming” Odile’s moisture into the region, we note the Canadian model does suggest some tropical moisture, courtesy of Odile, gets entangled along the front Sunday. We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things and monitor the forecast data accordingly moving forward through the back half of the work week.
The other item of interest has to do with yet another big blast of autumn air that will have things feeling very much like October around these parts come early next week. The above average temperatures Saturday will hang around just for the day as yet another unseasonably chilly air mass moves into the area Monday into Tuesday of next week as a significant trough develops over the east with an impressive western ridge in place. 
Note the GEFS and Canadian show the return of the unseasonable chill next week. Keep those jackets handy. Early indications would suggest this type air mass is plenty capable of highs in the upper 50s/ lower 60s and overnight lows in the upper 30s/ lower 40s during the height of the chill (most likely Tuesday). Stay tuned…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/16/catching-up-on-a-tuesday-evening/
May 30
|
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
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63/ 80 |
57/ 80 |
58/ 83 |
69/ 82 |
70/ 84 |
62/ 80 |
70/ 85 |
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– – – |
– – – |
– – – |
Light |
Light |
Light |
Light |
After a week of that famous summer “heavy” air mass filled with plenty of warmth and humidity, Hoosiers can breathe a sigh of relief this weekend as a much more refreshing northeast flow provides greatly reduced humidity levels. Also, we’ll enjoy plenty of sunshine for your weekend! All-in-all, we’ve lucked out with yet another beauty of a weekend! Get out and enjoy! As we flip the page into the new work week, showers and thunderstorm chances will increase as humidity levels do a rather abrupt face and return to the sultry levels we grew accustomed to this week. Locally heavy rainfall will be a possibility with such moisture content. A period of widespread, enhanced, rains may fall late next week. In unrelated weather news, we’ll also monitor the possibility of something “curious” down in the Gulf of Mexico towards the mid to late week period and the possibility of early season tropical mischief…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/30/much-less-humid-weekend/
