Category Archives: Tropics

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 08.28.21 @ 6a

A persistent trough will remain in place across the northern Rockies while weak ridging takes up shop across the Great Lakes region.
Warmest anomalies through the forecast period can be expected across the Mid-Atlantic and central Plains, into the Southwest. The northern Rockies will remain cooler than normal. The cooler than normal conditions across the central Gulf Coast region is associated with the daytime highs being lower as Ida moves north early in the period.
The biggest focus through the middle of the week will have to do with the remnant moisture associated with Ida. Active times will return to the upper Midwest as well.
We forecast 7-day rainfall amounts to check-in between 1″ and 1.5″ for most of central Indiana.

Forecast Period: 08.28.21 through 09.04.21

The period will open with an active weather pattern. A cold front will slowly press south through early week. At the same time, Hurricane Ida is forecast to make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast (likely along the LA coastline) Sunday afternoon, and as a major hurricane at that. The remnant moisture of Ida will lift north before curling east. Eventually, we believe the remnant moisture of Ida will get tangled up with the aforementioned cold front. While we’ll need to keep a close eye on data to see if any adjustments are needed early week, as of now, we believe the heavy rain threat will lie just south of our immediate area (more so along and south of the OH River). We’ll keep a close eye on things. Regardless, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected as the cold front sinks south. By midweek, the region will be in a much drier (and somewhat cooler) northeasterly airflow. Dry conditions are expected to continue into the holiday weekend ahead with slowly moderating temperatures.

No Comments AG Report, Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Labor Day Weekend, Tropics, Weekly Outlook

VIDEO: Explaining How Ida And A Cold Front Can Work Together To Draw In MUCH Drier, Cooler Air Leading Up To The Labor Day Weekend…

Updated 08.27.21 @ 9:15a

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No Comments Autumn, Client, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Labor Day Weekend, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Videos

VIDEO: Heat And Humidity Lead To Dangerous Conditions To Be Outdoors; Watching the Gulf of Mexico Early Next Week And Prospects Of A Cooler Open To September…

Updated 08.25.21 @ 8:45a

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No Comments Autumn, Client, Ensemble Discussion, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, MJO, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook: Heat, Humidity Top Story, Locally; Henri Impacts New England…

Updated 08.22.21 @ 6:30a

An upper level ridge will expand across the Ohio Valley through the upcoming week. Meanwhile, a trough will continue to provide unseasonably chilly air for the northern Rockies and inner-mountain region.
Well above average temperatures will take up shop from the central Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Unseasonably chilly conditions will prevail across the northern/ central Rockies.
Above normal precipitation is expected in association with Henri across New England. The northern Plains and upper Midwest can also expect above normal rainfall in the week ahead.
We forecast on average between 0.50″ and 1.00″ of rain across central Indiana in the upcoming 7-day period.

Forecast Period: 08.22.21 through 08.29.21

The overall weather pattern in the week ahead will feature an expanding ridge of high pressure into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. This will lead to oppressive heat and humidity expanding northeast (multiple days of highs into the lower 90s with high humidity values will make it feel closer to 100° through early and middle parts of the work week). Meanwhile, a persistent trough will continue to take up residence through the early part of the forecast period across the northern Rockies (additional early season snow will fly for the high peaks above 12k feet). The other big story during this forecast period? Henri, of course. Henri will deliver quite a blow to our friends in New England beginning later today, continuing a heavy interior rainfall threat through the early and middle part of the work week.

Back here on the home front, each and every day will feature isolated storm coverage. While “isolated” is the key word, if you find yourself under one of these storms, a quick 1″+ of rain is a good bet with the moisture content we’ll be dealing with. Somewhat better storm coverage is anticipated during the 2nd half of the work week (we’ll label it “widely scattered to scattered.” ;-)).

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