Jackets Required…Hoosiers are waking up to temperatures all the way down into the middle and upper 40s away from the city this morning (sure is hard to beat this crisp fall air). Sunshine will greet us out the door, but we’ll notice increasing cloudiness this afternoon and widely scattered thundershowers will follow. Most will stay dry, but enough upper level energy will interact with the cool air aloft to generate “pop corn” variety thundershowers this afternoon and evening. Additionally, highs in the mid 60s today and Thursday will be more like mid-October than early-September.
There’s no reason to waste a lot of pixels on the rest of the forecast period. Dry weather will dominate. Reinforcing cool air will arrive by the weekend and that cooler than average feel will remain throughout the forecast period. We’ll notice a gusty easterly wind at times late in the weekend and early next week as the pressure gradient tightens a bit between an area of high pressure to our northeast and Irma moving north into the Southeast.
Tropics: Irma continues to dominate the headlines, and rightfully so. This morning we have (2) additional storms: Jose and Katia. Jose is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane tonight, but should remain a “fish storm.” Katia will meander around the Bay of Campeche over the next few days and doesn’t pose a threat to the US.
Irma remains a category 5 beast this morning and overnight data continues to paint an ominous picture for the southeastern coast. Folks from the southern FL peninsula all the way up the coast to include the Carolinas need to remain abreast of the latest developments on Irma in the days ahead. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Friday evening for southern Florida. Eventually, more of the southeast can expect impacts from Irma late weekend and next week, including interior areas such as the southern Appalachians…
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More Like October Than September…A cold front moved through the region last night. As expected, there were “haves and have nots” with the frontal passage, including some rainfall totals over 2″ (especially north and east of the city) while other neighborhoods barely picked up a tenth of an inch.
Northwest winds are blowing now and ushering in much cooler temperatures that will be with us through the forecast period. In fact, temperatures will turn so cool it’ll feel more like October (especially Wednesday and Thursday) than September. Additionally, upper level energy will help create scattered showers Wednesday (not a big deal).
Dry conditions will return as we wrap up the work week and head into early next week. Reinforcing cool air will arrive this weekend and we’ll also note a gusty easterly wind at times, thanks to the circulation between a high off to our northeast and Irma pushing north across the southeast region.
Tropics: Speaking of Irma, she continues to strengthen this morning and very near category 5 status. Preparations should be underway across the Florida peninsula now. We still have time to watch things unfold, but it’s looking increasingly likely that southern Florida will begin to feel tropical storm force winds as early as Friday, followed by a potential landfalling major hurricane over the weekend.
The Storm Prediction Center includes an Enhanced Risk of severe weather across north-central parts of the state this evening. Damaging winds are of greatest concern with the stronger storms embedded in a squall line that will move from north to south this evening (generally between 6p-midnight).
MUCH cooler air will descend into the region as we progress through the week. Temperatures will be so cool, it’ll feel more like October rather than September, including multiple nights with lows settling into the 40s and highs not making it out of the 60s.
Improving Skies West To East Today…The remnants of Harvey led to heavy, wind-whipped, rain across southern and southeastern portions of the state Friday. Appropriately, today is the “transition day” towards brighter and briefly warmer times as Labor Day approaches. We’ll notice improving sky conditions from west to east today as the remnants of Harvey continue to track east. Today also won’t be nearly as windy as Friday. We awoke to temperatures at mid-October levels, including many in the 40s across central Indiana this morning. Despite the increasing sunshine, temperatures will run around 10° below average this afternoon.
A cold front will approach late Labor Day night and early Tuesday. Sunshine will dominate Monday, but we will note an increasingly gusty SW breeze by afternoon as the cold front draws closer. That front will slide through Tuesday and could have a scattered shower or thunderstorm with it as it passes (best chances of storms will be across the southern half of the state). Behind the frontal boundary, another shot of well below normal air (October-like) will descend into the region. With cold air aloft and just enough upper level energy around, widely scattered showers are possible during the afternoon hours Wednesday and Thursday.
Tropics: Irma will dominate weather headlines during the upcoming week. It’s far too early to know precisely where Irma will track, but folks with interests along the East Coast (from the southern FL peninsula all the way up to the north Atlantic coast) should monitor the progress of Irma closely. In addition to the likelihood of a major hurricane, the overall size of Irma will become larger as the week progresses.
Dry Close To The Weekend…First and foremost, our thoughts and prayers are with Texas as one of the worst flood events in our country’s history is unfolding this morning. With days of heavy rain ahead, an additonal 20″-30″ will fall on eastern Texas. Just horrific.
Here on the home front, we’ll wrap up the weekend on a dry note, but upper level energy will drift overhead late tonight and help generate scattered showers and thunderstorms as early as the predawn hours Monday. We’ll maintain a bit of an unsettled regime into Tuesday before dry conditions return Wednesday.
A backdoor cold front will push through central Indiana Thursday and a broken line of showers and thunderstorms may accompany this frontal passage. A northeasterly flow will usher in an unseasonably cool, early fall-like, close to the work week.
Looking ahead, an even stronger cold front has it’s eyes set on the region late next weekend or early the following week. Strong thunderstorm potential is present with this storm system followed by the coolest air since last spring…
Can’t Ask For Anything Better…Our weather to wrap up the work week will be dominated by cool Canadian high pressure. This will supply plentiful sunshine and unseasonably cool conditions.
A cold front will approach early next week before “washing out” over the Ohio Valley. Shower chances will increase in association with this frontal boundary late Sunday night into early next week. Dry conditions will return by the middle of next week along with slightly cooler than average temperatures.
Tropics: Harvey continues to dominate the headlines and rightfully so. Devastating impacts will be dealt to Texas from a rain, surge, and wind perspective. He will be upgraded to a major hurricane today. It’s still far too early to know how far north Henry will eventually make it late next week before getting absorbed by an approaching trough. Portions of the Ohio Valley are still on the table for potential rain impacts from Harvey late next week. Stay tuned.
Good morning, friends! Temperatures this morning are in the lower 50s for many across central Indiana as our “hint” of fall continues to wrap up the month of August. I…
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Cold Front Arrives…A cold front is pressing into the state today and generating unsettled weather across the region. Widespread heavy rains fell overnight across northern parts of the state (areas just west of Lafayette have picked up 3″-4″ of rain during the past 24 hours). Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected through early evening before a much drier and cooler air mass arrives tonight behind the frontal passage.
That drier and cooler regime will set the tone for the rest of the week and weekend. High pressure will settle in and provide plentiful sunshine. Additionally, cool, Canadian air will pour south as we progress through the second half of the week. This will result in well below normal temperatures and conditions that will feel more like mid to late September rather than late August.
Tropics: Harvey is likely to stage a comeback over the next few days once he emerges into the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Folks with interests along the Texas coastline should certainly monitor Harvey for tropical implications as the weekend approaches. An interior heavy rain/ flood threat will result, as well.
High pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern through the early portions of the new week. This will supply continued dry conditions, along with plentiful sunshine. Humidity values will remain comfortable as we open the work week before turning increasingly muggy as midweek nears.
High pressure will keep us dry through early week.
As high pressure moves off to the east, a southwesterly air flow will help moisture return to the state by mid and late week. As a cold front enters the picture, overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase and become scattered to numerous. We’re not expecting any sort of all-day rains, but chances of getting wet from time to time will go up Wednesday through Friday.
Thunderstorm coverage increases mid and late week.
Rainfall totals should fall in the 0.50″ to 1.00″ range for most, but there will be a few folks who pick up locally heavier amounts the second half of the week.
As of now, we think the cold front will pass Friday evening and set-up another pleasant weekend with seasonable temperatures. The stretch of gorgeous August weekends’ appears to roll along.
What else we’re working on: With us about to flip the page to the second half of August, thoughts continue to shift to the upcoming meteorological fall and winter seasons ahead. Early data paints an “intriguing” look, complete with high latitude blocking and neutral ENSO look. Winter enthusiasts should like the look overall as this will have an impact on the prospects of cold getting going earlier than recent years past. Much more on fall and winter in the weeks ahead… The other big item of interest has to do with the tropics. A new disturbance will traverse the MDR (Main Development Region) this week and given the overall upper level pattern over the CONUS, we’ll have to keep an eye on the East Coast Weeks 2-3.
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MUCH cooler air will descend into the region as we progress through the week. Temperatures will be so cool, it’ll feel more like October rather than September, including multiple nights with lows settling into the 40s and highs not making it out of the 60s.
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As of now, we think the cold front will pass Friday evening and set-up another pleasant weekend with seasonable temperatures. The stretch of gorgeous August weekends’ appears to roll along.