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Category: Tropics
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/09/20/video-turning-briefly-warmer-before-another-chilly-plunge/
Sep 19
VIDEO: Chilly Start Sunday AM; Keeping Close Eyes On Interaction Between Approaching Trough Late Week And Remnant Tropical Moisture…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/09/19/video-chilly-start-sunday-am-keeping-close-eyes-on-interaction-between-approaching-trough-late-week-and-remnant-tropical-moisture/
Sep 18
Quiet For Now, But Attention Warranted In The 7-9 Day Window…
The big story in the immediate term is centered squarely on the temperature forecast. Frost Advisories are up for our friends across northern parts of the state, northwestern OH, and into southwestern MI. Even a few folks outside of the city, itself, can expect patchy frost (a few weeks early mind you, and another byproduct of the recent dryness) across central Indiana.
There’s no reason to waste a lot of pixels on the short-term forecast as quiet conditions prevail. High pressure will remain in control for the upcoming work week with slowly moderating temperatures. We’ll go from below, to seasonal, to slightly above normal by week’s end.
The next “problem” arises by next weekend as forecast models sort out what to do with remnant tropical moisture from now TS Beta and an approaching cold front. In this morning’s client video (never posted due to the connectivity issues), we walked through the various solutions. We’ll be “back to normal” from a video perspective late tomorrow and appreciate your patience more than you know.
There’s two windows that are open late next week/ next weekend, including the Deep South and the Ohio Valley dealing with remnant tropical moisture. Given the overall pattern, we favor the southern solution from this distance, but should Beta “dilly dally” in the western Gulf, there will be an opportunity for that next approaching trough to pull that remnant tropical moisture northward into an area desperately needing rainfall. Stay tuned. Interestingly, the European and GFS both agree on the northern trend at 12z.
Notes and Asides: We’ll be back at home base tomorrow night after being down on the Gulf for the past week and will resume normal video production at that point. Despite the quiet times right now, it’ll be interesting to see how things begin to ramp up late next week. Much more later. Have a relaxing Friday evening.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/09/18/quiet-for-now-but-attention-warranted-in-the-7-9-day-window/
Sep 16
A Story On Sally…
Each autumn my family and I visit the gorgeous stretch of beaches on 30A (along the Florida panhandle). 99% of our visits have been met with pristine conditions, and I can count on one hand how many times (not all day washouts) rain has chased us inside.
For reference on what these beaches typically look like this time of year, I wanted to share a couple photos from last year’s trip. For those who haven’t been to Santa Rosa, Seaside, or Grayton Beach, this is what you normally can expect, including clear water and sugar-white sand. That is unless a hurricane threatens. While officially making landfall well to our west (roughly 150 miles in Gulf Shores, AL), the impacts were significant along the Florida panhandle. As Sally pushes inland, things are now slowly beginning to diminish here along the coast. It looks like we’ll finish this event in Grayton Beach with just shy of 19” of rain, 88 MPH winds, and at least 2 attempts of water spouts (not confirmed due to the intensity of rain and being at night).
Note the radar signatures around 1:45a this morning.
And again just after 4:30a.
It’s still tough to get out and explore the damage in our neighborhood, but a quick scan shows some of the impacts to houses, especially roofs and front porches.
The surf has also been something to behold. Many times, as the photos to begin showed, it’s tough to get 1’ to 2’ waves. This storm produced 12’ to 14’ waves, locally, along with a 4’ storm surge. In my 36 years, I’ve, personally, never seen waves like this on these beaches- including Michael, Ivan, and Opal.
See some of the videos I recorded this morning below:
Normally, this home is 50-75 yards away from the oceanfront.
The storm is, thankfully, now beginning to wind down here and we’re fully expecting to be back out on the beautiful beaches (though we know they’ll look very different from what we’re accustomed to) for an evening sunset. Our friends across the southeast states now will have to deal with flooding rain, gusty winds, and quick spin-up tornado potential between now and Friday evening.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/09/16/a-story-on-sally/
Sep 16
Another Problem Brought On By Dry Ground…
The upcoming (10) days will offer little, if any, relief from the recent dry stretch. Note the expanding (albeit still localized in the grand scheme of things) area of dry over the past (30) days:
Some areas from south-central IL into central IN have only seen 0.10” to 0.50” over the past month.
While a cold front will slip through the state Thursday, only isolated, weak showers are expected. Most will avoid any rain (best chance of seeing a passing shower will be across northern IN but even these won’t amount to much).
Of more interest will be the true jab of fall air behind the boundary. The dry ground will aid in allowing temperatures to fall to lower levels than if we had recently been dealing with wet conditions. In fact, outlying areas across central and northern parts of the state can expect the first frost of the season (2-3 weeks earlier than average) this weekend into early next week with overnight lows falling into the mid to upper 30s.
Quick follow up: Many have asked, and we are safe along the beaches of Walton Co. here in the Florida panhandle. Sally (now a category 2, 100 MPH hurricane) is making landfall near Gulf Shores, AL- 150 mi. to our west. We’ve accumulated over 15” of rain since 12a Tuesday and torrential downpours continue. Early this morning winds have gusted over 60 MPH and water spouts have been observed just off the coast of where we’re staying. As long as we maintain power, we’ll have a fresh video post later today.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/09/16/another-problem-brought-on-by-dry-ground/
Sep 14
VIDEO: Cooler Air Met With Continued Dry Conditions; Latest On Sally…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/09/14/video-cooler-air-met-with-continued-dry-conditions-latest-on-sally/
Sep 12
VIDEO: Soon-To-Be Sally Heads For The North-Central Gulf Coast; Pattern Takes An Active Turn Towards Late Month…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/09/12/video-soon-to-be-sally-heads-for-the-north-central-gulf-coast-pattern-takes-an-active-turn-towards-late-month/
Sep 10
VIDEO: Dry Conditions Remain, Overall, Through The Short-Term; Eyeing A Stronger Cold Front Days 8-10…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/09/10/video-dry-conditions-remain-overall-through-the-short-term-eyeing-a-stronger-cold-front-days-8-10/
Sep 04
Afternoon Video Update: Tracking A Significant Early Fall Storm System Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/09/04/afternoon-video-update-tracking-a-significant-early-fall-storm-system-next-week/
Aug 30
September 2020 (And Fall) Outlook…
Well here we are on the eve of meteorological fall and, right on cue, there’s a change on the horizon in the overall weather pattern. Does the quick start to a more autumn-like feel early and mid September continue into late month, or for that matter October and November? Let’s look at September first:
I. MJO will remain active- moving out of Phase 2 and into 3, 4, 5, and 6.
II. Tropics should remain busy with more of an East Coast threat.
III. West looks to remain hot and dry.
Note the precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the MJO phases this time of year:
The next couple of weeks will feature multiple cold fronts sliding through the region and each will provide progressively cooler air. The front coming through around Labor Day may even result in the hoodies having to be pulled out for the first time, including an early October-like feel. BUT- note how the MJO wants to rumble into Phases 5-6 towards late month. These will likely lead to a warmer pattern around Sept. 20th (give or take a day or two) through the remainder of the month.
As we broaden the spectrum a bit and focus on September through November, let’s start by taking a look at how the oceans may impact the pattern:
Most models suggest La Nina will peak late fall or early winter before giving way to La Nada by spring.
Aside from the upwelling associated with Laura, most of the Gulf of Mexico and certainly off the East Coast remains much warmer than normal. Unfortunately, this, along with other favorable conditions in the main development region (MDR) will likely continue to promote a hyperactive 2nd half of the tropical season. The other impact will likely be a warmer than normal fall season along the eastern seaboard, bleeding back into areas west of the Appalachians. Furthermore, we think the MJO will lean more towards Phases 6-8 for mid and late autumn.
The blend of the CFSv2 and European seasonal data sees a similar forecast to what we have out for September for the autumn, as a whole:
We believe fall 2020 will run slightly warmer than normal for our immediate region with the greatest spot for cooler anomalies to show up throughout the central Plains. After what we believe will be a wet September, things may take a turn for the drier in October before flipping back to wet in November. We prefer the way the CFSv2 handles the precipitation pattern compared to the European.
Next seasonal outlook we produce? Our annual winter package. Tick tock…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/30/september-2020-and-fall-outlook/