Category: Tornadoes

Mar 30

Saturday Evening Thoughts On The Pending Heavy Rain/ Severe Event…

Updated 03.30.24 @ 5:07p

There’s not much, if anything, to change regarding the setup and anticipated outcome of the Easter Sunday through Tuesday timeframe. Periods of heavy rain will get going Sunday PM and we’ll also need to watch for the threat of severe storms not only tomorrow afternoon/ evening but again Monday.

Midday models are latching onto a widespread 2”-4”+ event.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has increased the threat area tomorrow afternoon. Large hail is greatest concern but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

All modes of severe are on the table Monday, including tornado potential once again.

If all this wasn’t enough already, a much colder air mass will plunge into the region by midweek allowing rain to mix with and change to wet snow Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. The snow may even be heavy enough for slushy accumulations in spots.

Spring at its finest across the great Hoosier state…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-evening-thoughts-on-the-pending-heavy-rain-severe-event/

Mar 30

Multiple Waves Of Heavy Rain On Deck; Severe Storm Risk As Well…

Updated 03.30.24 @ 7:16a

The combination of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary, increasingly warm and humid air, and multiple waves of low pressure riding along the aforementioned boundary will lead to several rounds of locally heavy rain and also pose a strong to severe storm risk as we go through the early stages of the new week.

Precipitable water values (PWATs) will approach 1.5” to 2” at times early week (a tough feat to come by this time of year). This only raises confidence in the opportunity for this setup to generate periods of heavy, and eventually excessive, rainfall.

Widespread 3”+ totals can be expected by the time all is said and done, with locally heavier amounts.

If the heavy rain event wasn’t enough, we also need to be on guard for the threat of severe storms Sunday and Monday.

In particular, it’s Monday’s risk of severe that has us most concerned, including all modes (hail, wind, and a TOR threat). We recommend reviewing your family’s severe weather safety plan and make sure to have a way to receive any warnings that may be issued.

The heavy rain event will come to an end by Tuesday evening, but if we didn’t have enough to track already, we’ll add in the potential of rain to mix with wet snow Wednesday. Regardless, expect a much colder and blustery time of things as this bigger storm departs by midweek.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/multiple-waves-of-heavy-rain-on-deck-severe-storm-risk-as-well/

Mar 26

VIDEO: Line Of Storms To Develop This Afternoon; Busy Pattern Ahead To Close March And Open April…

Updated 03.26.24 @ 7:30a Wind is the story this morning, and that will continue through the afternoon and evening. A “big hair warning” is in effect today. 🙂 A bit…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-line-of-storms-to-develop-this-afternoon-busy-pattern-ahead-to-close-march-and-open-april/

Mar 24

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 03.24.24 @ 8:20a

While a period of unsettled weather looms late Monday and Tuesday, the majority of the upcoming week will feature quiet conditions across our neck of the woods. We’re watching Tuesday afternoon for the potential of severe weather across the state.

The ‘mean’ trough will settle into the western CONUS and that’s where the coldest anomalies will setup shop.

A trough will take up residence across the West with only glancing blows of cooler air, locally.
A chilly week is in store for the West with the temperature swings balancing out very close to average across our area this week.
Rainfall will run average to slightly below average in the week ahead south and east.

Forecast period: 03.24.24 – 03.31.24

We’ll close the weekend with quiet conditions in place. Anticipate gusty winds to kick up Monday as our next storm system approaches from the west. This will also deliver a few showers Monday night before heavier rain and embedded thunder arrives Tuesday predawn. An additional round of thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon and a few of these could become strong to severe (damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out).

A cold front will sweep east and end the rain/ storm threat Tuesday night with calmer weather returning for mid and late week. The next chance of rain will arrive next weekend. Speaking of next weekend, though early, model guidance is suggestive that we may be looking at a heavy rain event around the time that we close out March and open April. Just something we’ll be keeping an eye on in the days ahead.

Upcoming storm dates to keep an eye on:

  • 03.25 – 03.26
  • 03.30 – 04.01

*10-day Rainfall Projection: 2.00″ to 3.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-48/

Mar 14

Client Brief: Severe Weather Episode On Track Tonight…

Updated 03.14.24 @ 4:16p

Type: Severe Weather Outbreak

What: Severe weather outbreak

When: Tonight between 6p and midnight

Wind: Potential of straight line winds in excess of 60 MPH

Temperatures: Lower 70s falling into the 40s after midnight

Summary: While all is quiet on the radar as we type this, things will change quickly through the next hour, or so. We anticipate storms to initialize across the region around 6p and quickly intensify. Downstream radar and satellite trends pose a concerning look this afternoon, including several super cells and this activity is expected to expand into central IN through the evening. All modes of severe weather are possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Please heed all warnings and have your severe weather safety plan activated through the evening. Thankfully, we still anticipate rapidly improving conditions north to south towards 11p to midnight.

Confidence: High

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-severe-weather-episode-on-track-tonight/