Severe T-storms This Evening Give Way To Much Colder Air This Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Record warmth
  • Severe t-storm potential this evening
  • Scattered snow showers Saturday
  • Active pattern next week

Focused On Severe Weather This Evening…Though the day is beginning on a quiet note, we’re concerned it might not end that way, as strong to severe thunderstorms impact central Indiana this afternoon and evening.  The sunshine this morning is actually something that adds further concern for the potential of explosive thunderstorm development later today.  More specifically, we’re bracketing the hours of 4p and 10p for the likelihood of storms impacting central parts of the state (west to east), and some of these may become severe.  All modes of severe weather are in play today, including large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.  Please have a means of getting the latest warning information and ensure you know your family’s severe plan.  Otherwise, we forecast to shatter the record high today as we zoom all the way into the middle 70s with a gusty southerly wind.

Winter will return with authority tonight and set-up a much colder weekend.  That high in the upper 40s Saturday will actually come at midnight with falling temperatures (most of the daytime hours will feature low-mid 30s with ‘chills in the 20s), windy conditions, and scattered snow showers.

A weak weather system is looking less and less impressive for the second half of the weekend, but we’ll continue to keep a chance of light rain in our forecast by evening.

Better rain chances will begin to ramp up Monday evening and become widespread Tuesday, including the possibility of thunderstorms, as well.  The second half of next week will trend colder…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Looking At Friday’s Severe Set-Up…

An updated 7-day forecast will hit later today.  This morning we wanted to take the time to dig in a little deeper on Friday’s severe weather threat.

Severe Weather Outlook:

This morning the latest update from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has expanded the ‘Enhanced Risk’ of severe weather Friday.  This includes all of central Indiana.

Summary:

A sub 1000 mb surface low pressure system will track northeast from northern MO (Friday morning) to central MI (Saturday morning).  Ahead of this, a warm front will lift north through central IN and into lower MI Friday afternoon.  A strong cold front will be located near the MS River Friday morning and barrel eastward, sweeping the state Friday night.

Unseasonably warm and moist air will be drawn northward and encompass the entire region Friday.  Forecast highs should break records tomorrow and be in the lower-middle 70s for most of the region (thinking we see plentiful sunshine during the daytime hours).  Dew points will near 60°. Considering this is late February, those are impressive ingredients coming into play.  The added sunshine tomorrow is actually a bad thing as it will add “fuel to the fire,” so to speak, and help play a role in potentially explosive thunderstorm development Friday evening.

Forecast dew points will reach around 60 degrees across the region Friday afternoon.

Surface-based CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is modeled to reach between 1200-1600 J/kg Friday evening across the region.

Threats and Timing:

Most of Friday is going to be quiet, but it’s as we move into Friday afternoon and evening that we’ll need to keep close eyes to the sky and radar.  The potential exists for individual super cells to develop out ahead of an eastward-advancing line of thunderstorms Friday evening.  All modes of severe weather are possible Friday evening, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.  As of now, we bracket the hours of 4p and 10p for the period where severe weather may be impacting portions of central IN.

As mentioned yesterday, we highly recommend reviewing your family’s severe weather safety plan and ensure weather radios are charged with warning modes “on” Friday.

Wednesday Evening Thoughts: For The Love Of Weather, We Have To Get Better…

Indiana is blessed with a truly incredible weather community.  Please understand that I’m not just throwing around the word “community” lightly here.  The relationships that have stemmed from one single…

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Another Wet Day…

Screen Shot 2016-08-16 at 7.37.17 AMHighlights:

  • Periods of rain
  • Increasing sunshine as we push into late week
  • Weekend cold front

Keep The Rain Gear Handy…Whew, after an incredibly busy evening, things will be much quieter today.  Despite not having a severe threat, we will have to deal with wet times as periods of rain continue.  Rain coverage will diminish Wednesday, but we’ll keep scattered showers in the forecast.

Drier air will arrive Thursday and Friday, including a partly cloudy sky.  The next weather item on the horizon is a weekend cold front.  This frontal boundary will help increase storm chances Saturday into early Sunday (a few storms Saturday evening could be on the strong side).  MUCH cooler, early fall-like, air awaits next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″-1.25″

Here are a few photos I shot Monday evening (8.15.16), between 6:47p-6:55p, just after the tornado touched down in Whitestown.

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