Category: Tornadoes

Apr 25

Nice Weekend Before A Prolonged Rainy/ Stormy Stretch…

A mostly dry and warm weekend is underway.  The Friday afternoon sunshine we enjoyed is a preview of what the majority of the weekend will provide.  We note the threat of a scattered shower or storm across northern portions of the state during the predawn hours Saturday and across central portions of the state (including Indianapolis) during the predawn hours Sunday. That said, in both cases, most will remain rain-free.

The big event is still slated for a late Sunday night arrival.  Low pressure will sit and spin across the Plains states Saturday into Sunday.  While we stay mostly dry, a major severe weather outbreak will likely unfold across this area during the day Saturday and again Sunday.

Better chances of rain and thunderstorms will arrive across central Indiana late Sunday night.  Some of these storms may be strong, but we think it’s more in the Monday and Tuesday time frame where we really need to be on our toes in regards to severe potential.  At this juncture, it appears as if all modes of severe weather will be in play across the region, including tornadoes, hail, and damaging straight line winds.  An enhanced risk of severe weather will lie across southern portions of the state.

The Days 4 and 5 severe weather outlook from the fine folks at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) will likely be expanded north as we move forward.day48prob

Forecast radar from some of our high resolution model data suggests thunderstorms begin to rumble into the state as early as Sunday night.

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Eventually, this big spring storm will begin to weaken and turn into a large closed off upper level low pressure system. This promises a MUCH cooler stretch here mid to late next week along with continued unsettled conditions, with periods of showers and blustery northwest winds.  In fact, IND very well record measurable precipitation every day Sunday through next Saturday…

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After a warm weekend and early week, note the colder air moving in to wrap up April and open May. Temperatures are moving in the wrong direction.  Highs by the mid to latter part of next week will only make it into the lower 50s some days.  The first week of May looks much cooler than average.

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Apr 03

Update On The Heavy Rain And Severe Potential

It’s a wet and stormy morning across central Indiana, including heavy rain and embedded stronger storms.  The latest HRRR short-term data paints a continued stormy picture through the morning.

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That said, we’ll get into some dry time late morning into the afternoon, but the atmosphere will be priming itself for another noisy night ahead.  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlines the region under a slight risk of severe weather, including damaging wind, damaging hail, and a potential tornado.  The greatest risk of severe is to our south, but we must remain on our toes tonight into the wee morning hours Friday.  Please keep your weather radios on alert mode tonight.

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The simulated radar shows thunderstorms re-firing to our west late tonight, moving in during the overnight hours.

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When all is said and done (and accounting Wednesday’s rain) we still forecast widespread 2-3″ of rain across the region, with locally heavier totals.  Additionally, we bracket late tonight into the early Friday morning hours for the greatest chance of severe weather across our region.  Hail and straight line wind damage are of the greatest concerns, but a tornado can’t be ruled out.  The cold front will sweep the state clean Friday afternoon and help set up a very nice, although cooler, weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/update-on-the-heavy-rain-and-severe-potential/

Apr 01

Wet, Stormy Period…

Wed.

Thr.

Fri.

Sat.

Sun.

Mon.

Tue.

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43/ 52

50/ 66

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32/ 50

30/ 57

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Heavy

Heavy

Light

– – –

– – –

Moderate

– – –

Forecast Updated 04.02.14 @ 7:30a

Heading Into A Stormy, Wet Period. . .While periods of showers and thunderstorms will be with us through Friday morning, we break things down and focus in on this afternoon/ evening into Thursday morning for the potential of heaviest rainfall.  We then think we experience a bit of a “lull” in the action Thursday afternoon before we ramp things back up and introduce a severe weather component Thursday night into Friday morning.  Renewed heavy rains would also accompany these thunderstorms.  As for the severe risk, really all modes of severe weather are in play, including damaging hail, straight line winds, and even the possibility of a tornado or two.  We’ll continue to closely monitor the ongoing weather situation and suggest you plan to keep abreast of the latest developments in the days ahead in terms of potentially flooding and severe weather.  Severe weather outbreaks are always dangerous, but particularly so at night.

The cold front will sweep the state clean of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms Friday morning and this will set things up for a much quieter, calmer (although windy) close to the week.

When all is said and done, we forecast widespread 2-3″ rainfall through the heart of the state, including central Indiana, along with localized amounts between 3″ and 4″.

Much Needed, Calmer, Weekend. . .High pressure will build over head as we go through the weekend and this will supply a drier, calmer period Saturday and Sunday.  We’ll note a cooler air mass in place, along with a gusty northwest wind Saturday, but winds will calm Sunday, ensuring a pleasant close to the weekend.

Eyeing Our Next Storm. . .Things are still much in the air in regards to the precise details with a new storm system early next week, but we’re confident something’s brewing.  The European data suggests this is another heavy rain event for our neck of the woods Monday, while the GFS is further east, and takes the majority of the moisture up the eastern seaboard.  We’ll continue to monitor things.

One more item of note, mid to long range guidance is in agreement on the return of a below normal temperature pattern here later next week…  In fact, a few wet snow flurries may fly next Tuesday as the cold air pushes back in.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 3″ – 4″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wet-stormy-period/

Nov 17

Extremely Dangerous Severe Weather Outbreak Ahead…

Good morning!  We’re waking up to sunshine this morning after a round of rain and thunderstorms overnight.  Over 1″ of rain fell for many during the overnight period (1.53″ to be exact here at IndyWx.com HQ).

Unfortunately, skies now are clearing and this is only going to aid in the severe weather potential today, including some dangerous long-lived and strong tornadoes.

ECWVThis is a very rare November high severe weather risk day and must be taken seriously by all.

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The thinking here hasn’t changed in that we feel discrete super cells develop during the late morning and early afternoon before morphing into a squall line capable of producing damaging straight line wind. With the dynamics and energy in play here, any of these super cells could spawn a tornado. Additionally, it’s possible that a few of these tornadoes could be long tracked and very strong tornadoes.  The latest high-resolution simulated radar data shows this well.

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We still target a cold front passing through the region around, or just after, sunset and with this frontal passage the severe weather will come to an abrupt end.  The latest HRRR data shows this well as dew points begin to crash behind the cold front, indicative a much drier, cooler, and more stable air mass arriving tonight.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/extremely-dangerous-severe-weather-outbreak-ahead/

Nov 16

Late Saturday Night: Thunderstorms Develop Overnight; Update On Sunday

Good evening, Hoosiers!  Showers are developing now, and these will increase in coverage and intensity as we progress through the overnight. As we move into the wee morning hours, don’t be surprised if you’re awoken with loud claps of thunder, gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and small hail.  That said, we think overnight thunderstorms remain below what would officially be considered “severe.”

Here’s a look at the simulated radar later tonight, valid at 2am local time, courtesy of the HRRR model.

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As for Sunday, we continue to look over the latest data and our thoughts haven’t changed. It still appears the two biggest threats will be from damaging straight line winds and the possibility of quick spin-up tornadoes associated both within the squall line, itself, but also with any individual severe cells that develop before “morphing” into the squall line.  It should also be pointed out that even outside thunderstorms, southwest winds will howl across central Indiana, periodically gusting upwards of 40-45 MPH even outside of thunderstorms. Hunker down…

The latest high-resolution NAM suggests the possibility of super cells entering western Indiana early Sunday afternoon before organizing into a squall line as it moves through central and western Indiana. This line will mean business as it moves east across the state, and latest data suggests the most significant severe threat for central Indiana will be from 12 noon through 6p, moving west to east.  By sunset Sunday, most of central Indiana will see a much needed (and much colder) wind shift to the northwest, ending any threat of severe weather.

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