Category Archives: Tornadoes

Growing Severe Threat Sunday…

We have growing concerns of a severe weather event Sunday afternoon and evening across the state.  This morning, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included most of Indiana in an “Enhanced” risk of severe weather.  From this distance, all modes of severe weather seem possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado or two.

A trough and associated cold front will slice into an unseasonably warm and increasingly moist air mass Sunday.  Ahead of the approaching front, temperatures should climb into the lower 70s Sunday afternoon (average high is in the upper 50s) and dew points will reach the lower to middle 60s.  While the developing surface low isn’t expected to be terribly strong, as this feature moves northeast, it’ll help drag a cold front into this warm and increasingly unstable air mass late Sunday.  From this distance, conditions seem favorable for a couple of super cells to develop Sunday afternoon and evening.  We’ll have to keep a close eye on the northward extent of the warm front as this would be the areas of greatest concern for potential tornadic activity Sunday afternoon.  Large hail and damaging winds are also included in Sunday’s severe threat.  We’re in the second severe weather season, after all, and this kind of event isn’t unusual.  Late November 2013 comes to mind.

It’ll be important to remain weather-aware Sunday and stay tuned all weekend for future updates.  We’ll transition to a much cooler regime (back to below average) next week.

A cold front will slice into unseasonably warm and moist air Sunday afternoon and evening. A severe weather episode is a growing concern. Remain weather-aware.

 

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Harvest'17, Severe Weather, T-storms, Tornadoes, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Wednesday: Potential Of A Busy Severe Weather Day…

Highlights:

  • Stormy Wednesday
  • Snow mixes with rain Thursday
  • Gorgeous weekend upcoming
  • Busy times return next week

Remain Weather-Aware…Chilly, dry weather will continue this evening before showers and thunderstorms (non-severe) approach the western Indiana state line overnight and early Wednesday.  Initially, showers and thunderstorms will impact western and northwestern portions of the state before all of central Indiana gets into the act by the afternoon hours.  We continue to be concerned for the potential of an active severe weather day across the southern half of the state.  All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes.  As of this update (late Tuesday night), the greatest risk area appears to lie within areas from Indianapolis and points south and southeast.  We’re most concerned for the period 2p-8p and will fine tune things early Wednesday if needed.  Please remain weather-aware and have a means of getting the latest warnings.

We’ll shift gears rather abruptly from severe to more of a wintry feel to close the work week.  Much colder air will spill into central Indiana Wednesday night and Thursday and leftover, wraparound, moisture will begin mixing with wet snowflakes Thursday afternoon and evening.  Gusty northwest winds and the unseasonably chilly air will result in a downright ugly, raw day.

After early morning snowflakes Friday, drier air will begin to work into the region and result in increasing sunshine Friday afternoon.  This will be a prelude to a gorgeous weekend:  After a cold start Saturday, expect lots of sunshine and moderating afternoon temperatures.  The warming trend continues Sunday as we top the 70° mark.

Our next storm approaches early next week.  Clouds increase Sunday night and give way to showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.  Questions come into play in regards to timing with this next cold front, but thinking (as of now) only slowly moves the front along, keeping unsettled weather in our forecast early week before a much cooler, drier period of weather by midweek.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.00″ – 2.50″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, snow, T-storms, Tornadoes, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Timing Thursday Storms…

Happy Wednesday!  Today’s sunshine sure was nice and I hope you had an opportunity to get outside and enjoy it.  Unfortunately, the pleasant weather won’t last as a storm system begins to impact central Indiana as early as the overnight period.  Clouds will continue to thicken tonight and showers and thunderstorms (non-severe) will arrive during the predawn hours.

We note short-term, high resolution, forecast radar data brings the initial wave of thunderstorms through the city during the 2a-3a time frame early Thursday morning.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely impact central Indiana through the mid and late morning hours Thursday.

As we press into the early afternoon hours, model data suggests we see a “lull” in the stormy weather and potentially even a few breaks in the cloud cover.  This would serve to “up the ante” in regards to the prospects of severe weather potential Thursday afternoon, particularly mid and late afternoon through the evening hours.  Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight central Indiana for the risk of severe weather Thursday.

In fact, given a look at the most recent data, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the “enhanced” risk area expand further north in future updates.  This would also include all modes of severe weather (large hail, damaging straight line winds, and potentially a tornado). As things stand this evening, we bracket the hours of 4p and 10p Thursday for the greatest potential of severe weather.

Forecast radar paints a stormy picture Thursday evening and, as mentioned above, a few of these storms could become severe.

As we push into the overnight hours Thursday into Friday, unsettled weather will continue, but we’ll get rid of the severe potential.  “Nuisance” type showers will continue into the first half of Friday before drier air arrives Friday afternoon and evening.  This drier theme will settle in for the weekend and provide a very pleasant open to April.

Ensure you remain weather-aware Thursday and have a means of getting the latest warnings.

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Hail, Severe Weather, T-storms, Tornadoes, Windy

Unseasonably Warm And Stormy Weather Gives Way To Late Week Chill…

Monday evening is running much warmer than this time Sunday across most of the central, including right here in Indiana.

This warmer regime is the sign of stormy times that will develop as we move into Tuesday.  An initial round of showers and thunderstorms will impact central Indiana Tuesday morning and the HRRR forecast radar is picking up on this nicely, especially during the predawn hours.

The wet, stormy start to the day will give way to a mostly dry time of things through the majority of the daylight hours Tuesday, but our concentration will be on the Tuesday night-Wednesday morning period, as the potential exists for some rather turbulent weather.

We note the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center outlines all of the region for the chance of severe weather Tuesday night and also note the possibility the “enhanced” risk area may expand in future updates.  Additionally, given some of the ingredients we’re observing this evening, there’s also the possibility we may see an upgrade to a “moderate” risk for portions of the region.  It’ll be particularly important to pay attention to weather updates Tuesday night.  Primary concerns are for large hail and damaging winds in a possible squall line that develops ahead of an approaching cold front.  Additionally, if storms develop ahead of the primary line of storms, the potential exists for a couple of tornadoes.  Have a means of getting the latest watches and warnings Tuesday night.

Modeled radar suggests things may begin to get “busy” around these parts late evening and during the overnight.  The latest high resolution NAM (hot off the press as of this update) paints a rather ominous look as midnight nears Wednesday morning.

We then note modeling bringing the squall line through central Indiana during the overnight and predawn hours.  We’ll have to fine tune timing as we move through the day Tuesday, but we bracket the hours of 2a and 6a when a concentrated line of strong to severe storms rumbles through the state (northwest to southeast).  Hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out.

Our weather will turn quieter, but colder, as Wednesday progresses into Wednesday evening, including blustery conditions with falling temperatures.

A fast-moving clipper system will dive southeast Thursday evening into early Friday morning and this could produce a snow shower, or two, across the region, but shouldn’t amount to much from a snow perspective (keeping true to the tune of the winter, heh?).  The bigger story will be the “rude” feel to the air mass as we wrap up the work week, as highs only reach the upper 30s with a gusty wind.

That said, the chilly late week conditions won’t last long, and a gusty southwesterly air flow will develop as early as Saturday.  This will help give temperatures a significant boost Saturday afternoon after a cold start to the day.  60° is possible Saturday afternoon and the mercury may approach 70° Sunday!

More updates in the AM!  Have a great night, friends!

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Hail, Severe Weather, Spring, T-storms, Tornadoes, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy