Sep 10
A strong fall cold front will slice into an increasingly warm and muggy air mass across our region tonight. Associated surface low pressure will track into the Great Lakes region.…
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Jun 03
It’s been a bit of a frustrating afternoon as I’ve been trying to upload a video discussing our thoughts around tomorrow for a couple of hours….only to no avail.
So this post will have to do. Really our thoughts remain unchanged concerning the way things unfold late tonight and Wednesday. The severe thunderstorms to our northwest continue to rumble as of the 10 o’clock hour.
The Storm Prediction Center holds firm to the Slight Risk for the Ohio Valley and northern Tennessee Valley Wednesday.
We wouldn’t be surprised to see a portion (most likely the southern half) of the Slight Risk area upgraded to a rare Moderate Risk area with the update from the SPC early Wednesday morning.
Our thinking hasn’t changed in that we believe the current complex of severe storms arrives into north central Indiana in a weakened state early Wednesday morning. The rush hour will likely include heavy rain and plenty of thunder, though we think the majority, if not all, of this activity Wednesday morning will remain below severe levels across our immediate region. Showers and thunderstorms will rumble into the area, especially north of the city during the predawn hours and include plenty of heavy rain.
A second round of showers and thunderstorms will fire during the afternoon Wednesday and is likely to turn severe across south central Indiana and points south Wednesday afternoon. Dangerous conditions are a good bet, including large and destructive hail, damaging straight line winds, and tornadoes. Certainly if you have plans from Indianapolis to Louisville or Cincy tomorrow afternoon and evening please keep tuned to the latest weather conditions and radar updates. Further north, the severe potential is much less certain. We continue to think areas north of the I-70 corridor will struggle to shake the stability provided from the early morning rain and storms. We caution though that this remains a now-cast scenario and will require a close eye tomorrow afternoon.
Looking farther ahead, we’ll enjoy a refreshing blast of air Thursday-Saturday with bright sunshine, low humidity, and cooler temperatures. Warmth and humidity will return Sunday with rainfall potential around 1″ additional precipitation. This will be followed by yet another big push of cooler, drier air early next week. More on this in the days to come.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-night-update-southern-indiana-under-gun-for-a-big-severe-weather-day-wednesday/
Apr 25
A mostly dry and warm weekend is underway. The Friday afternoon sunshine we enjoyed is a preview of what the majority of the weekend will provide. We note the threat of a scattered shower or storm across northern portions of the state during the predawn hours Saturday and across central portions of the state (including Indianapolis) during the predawn hours Sunday. That said, in both cases, most will remain rain-free.
The big event is still slated for a late Sunday night arrival. Low pressure will sit and spin across the Plains states Saturday into Sunday. While we stay mostly dry, a major severe weather outbreak will likely unfold across this area during the day Saturday and again Sunday.
Better chances of rain and thunderstorms will arrive across central Indiana late Sunday night. Some of these storms may be strong, but we think it’s more in the Monday and Tuesday time frame where we really need to be on our toes in regards to severe potential. At this juncture, it appears as if all modes of severe weather will be in play across the region, including tornadoes, hail, and damaging straight line winds. An enhanced risk of severe weather will lie across southern portions of the state.
The Days 4 and 5 severe weather outlook from the fine folks at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) will likely be expanded north as we move forward.
Forecast radar from some of our high resolution model data suggests thunderstorms begin to rumble into the state as early as Sunday night.
Eventually, this big spring storm will begin to weaken and turn into a large closed off upper level low pressure system. This promises a MUCH cooler stretch here mid to late next week along with continued unsettled conditions, with periods of showers and blustery northwest winds. In fact, IND very well record measurable precipitation every day Sunday through next Saturday…
After a warm weekend and early week, note the colder air moving in to wrap up April and open May. Temperatures are moving in the wrong direction. Highs by the mid to latter part of next week will only make it into the lower 50s some days. The first week of May looks much cooler than average.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/nice-weekend-before-a-prolonged-rainy-stormy-stretch/
Apr 03
It’s a wet and stormy morning across central Indiana, including heavy rain and embedded stronger storms. The latest HRRR short-term data paints a continued stormy picture through the morning.
That said, we’ll get into some dry time late morning into the afternoon, but the atmosphere will be priming itself for another noisy night ahead. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlines the region under a slight risk of severe weather, including damaging wind, damaging hail, and a potential tornado. The greatest risk of severe is to our south, but we must remain on our toes tonight into the wee morning hours Friday. Please keep your weather radios on alert mode tonight.
The simulated radar shows thunderstorms re-firing to our west late tonight, moving in during the overnight hours.
When all is said and done (and accounting Wednesday’s rain) we still forecast widespread 2-3″ of rain across the region, with locally heavier totals. Additionally, we bracket late tonight into the early Friday morning hours for the greatest chance of severe weather across our region. Hail and straight line wind damage are of the greatest concerns, but a tornado can’t be ruled out. The cold front will sweep the state clean Friday afternoon and help set up a very nice, although cooler, weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/update-on-the-heavy-rain-and-severe-potential/
Apr 01
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Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
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43/ 52 |
50/ 66 |
43/ 62 |
32/ 50 |
30/ 57 |
38/ 56 |
33/ 46 |
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Heavy |
Heavy |
Light |
– – – |
– – – |
Moderate |
– – – |
Forecast Updated 04.02.14 @ 7:30a
Heading Into A Stormy, Wet Period. . .While periods of showers and thunderstorms will be with us through Friday morning, we break things down and focus in on this afternoon/ evening into Thursday morning for the potential of heaviest rainfall. We then think we experience a bit of a “lull” in the action Thursday afternoon before we ramp things back up and introduce a severe weather component Thursday night into Friday morning. Renewed heavy rains would also accompany these thunderstorms. As for the severe risk, really all modes of severe weather are in play, including damaging hail, straight line winds, and even the possibility of a tornado or two. We’ll continue to closely monitor the ongoing weather situation and suggest you plan to keep abreast of the latest developments in the days ahead in terms of potentially flooding and severe weather. Severe weather outbreaks are always dangerous, but particularly so at night.
The cold front will sweep the state clean of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms Friday morning and this will set things up for a much quieter, calmer (although windy) close to the week.
When all is said and done, we forecast widespread 2-3″ rainfall through the heart of the state, including central Indiana, along with localized amounts between 3″ and 4″.
Much Needed, Calmer, Weekend. . .High pressure will build over head as we go through the weekend and this will supply a drier, calmer period Saturday and Sunday. We’ll note a cooler air mass in place, along with a gusty northwest wind Saturday, but winds will calm Sunday, ensuring a pleasant close to the weekend.
Eyeing Our Next Storm. . .Things are still much in the air in regards to the precise details with a new storm system early next week, but we’re confident something’s brewing. The European data suggests this is another heavy rain event for our neck of the woods Monday, while the GFS is further east, and takes the majority of the moisture up the eastern seaboard. We’ll continue to monitor things.
One more item of note, mid to long range guidance is in agreement on the return of a below normal temperature pattern here later next week… In fact, a few wet snow flurries may fly next Tuesday as the cold air pushes back in.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
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