Category: T-storms

Nov 01

Saturday Forecast: Chilly Weekend; Eyeing Another Significant Storm…

Updated 11.01.13 @ 10:53p

Zionsville, IN After a day filled with heavy rain and damaging winds, we closed the week out with chilly, but pleasant weather conditions.  We’ll enjoy a chilly weekend ahead and we’re eyeing another significant storm system that promises to have a renewed threat of heavy rain, severe weather, and a big temperature drop next week.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconSaturday: Mostly cloudy; Passing shower (0.05) 42/ 50

Reinforcing chilly air will blow into the state Saturday.  This will be accompanied by mostly cloudy skies, blustery northwest winds, and the threat of a passing light shower or sprinkles.  Grab the coat or jacket before heading out to get those Christmas lights put up or take care of those outdoor chores.

Status-weather-clouds-iconSunday: Partly cloudy; 33/ 51

We’ll wrap up the weekend with dry and chilly weather.  Plenty of sunshine will team up with cool, crisp fall air to present a beautiful close to the weekend.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly cloudy; 35/ 57

Partly cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures will greet folks on the way back to school and work.

 

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Increasing clouds; developing nighttime showers (0.10) 48/ 60

We’ll eye our next storm system for a mid week arrival. Tuesday should start sunny, but mid and high level cloudiness will be on the increase followed by developing nighttime showers as warmer, more muggy, air moves over the top of the dry, chilly air in place initially.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconWednesday: Scattered daytime showers, increasing at night with thunderstorms (0.60)  54/ 62

A cold front will slide through the region Wednesday night and Thursday morning and this will be the focal point of more widespread showers and thunderstorms. We stress that it likely won’t rain all day Wednesday, but showers will be possible before the more widespread rain and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday.

We’re monitoring this storm for a renewed threat of heavy rain and severe weather. At this distance, it’s far too early to be precise with the threat details, but we think widespread 1″+ rains are likely along with another enhanced straight-line wind event for at least portions of central Indiana during the Wednesday night/ Thursday time period.  Each storm system is different and presents its own set of challenges, but this storm has a few similarities to that which we just dealt with.

We have time to watch things and we’ll update accordingly as we move forward.  Stay tuned.

Status-weather-storm-night-iconThursday: AM Thunderstorms (0.50″) 42/ 55

We forecast thunderstorms to be likely Thursday morning, but as the cold front slides east of the region, the rain chance will end from west to east through the day.  Temperatures will cool dramatically as we go through the afternoon and evening hours with falling temperatures after a midnight high.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 32/ 45

The big story as we wrap up next week will be the colder air.  In fact, latest model data suggests we plunge into the 20s for lows by next Saturday morning.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-forecast-chilly-weekend-eyeing-another-significant-storm/

Oct 29

Tuesday Forecast: Changes Brewing…

Updated 10.29.13 @ 9:37a

Zionsville, IN It’s another calm, cold, quiet start to the day, but changes are brewing. These changes include warmer, more muggy air by tonight and Wednesday, widespread rain and storms for mid week, and another temperature plunge for the weekend.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Mostly cloudy; scattered nighttime showers; 0.10″; 37/ 62

After a calm, cold start to the day, clouds will increase and showers will develop tonight. We currently note widespread rain and embedded thunder across MO, but this will weaken as it encounters our dry air mass tonight. Light rain will likely overspread the region from southwest to northeast as we move through the nighttime hours.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconWednesday: Scattered showers; 0.10″; 55/ 67

The big story on Wednesday won’t be the rain, but instead the briefly warmer surge of air out ahead of our cold front. In fact, most of Wednesday should remain rain-free. Latest high resolution short term model data points to showers and a rumble of thunder exiting stage right Wednesday morning and while we can’t rule out an additional shower or thundershower through the day, most of the time will be rain-free Wednesday. South winds will begin to increase during the afternoon, gusting over 20 MPH.

Status-weather-storm-night-iconHalloween: Showers and thunderstorms; 1.10″; 59/ 66

A strong cold front will plow into the state Thursday night. Out ahead of this boundary, abundant moisture will surge north into the area. We’re not looking at all day rains Thursday, but target the afternoon-nighttime hours when rain and thunderstorms will be the most widespread. Additionally, we continue to monitor the severe threat with this system. Widespread and significant severe thunderstorms will be likely across southern IN and points south to include the western TN Valley. That said, severe weather reports will likely extend north to include central Indiana, as well. As of now, the primary severe threat appears to be from a damaging straight line wind perspective across our neck of the woods. Heavy rainfall will also be common as widespread 1″+ rains are likely.  Needless to say, you’ll certainly want to keep those weather radios tuned in Thursday.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy and breezy; 45/ 59 

The cold front will be to our east Friday, allowing the sunshine to return. It’ll be a breezy day, but the true cold air advection will hold off until Saturday, so temperatures will be very near seasonal levels Friday with a gusty northwest breeze.

imagesSaturday: Mostly cloudy; PM scattered showers (wet snow flake mixed in); 0.05″; 37/ 47

Fresh cold air will pour into the state Saturday and be accompanied by some upper level energy to create the threat of afternoon scattered showers.  Precipitation may mix with a wet snow flake Saturday evening. We think the day shapes up as a cold, raw day that will certainly require that jackets and sweaters.

Status-weather-clouds-iconSunday: Partly cloudy; 32/ 55

We’ll wrap up the weekend with sunshine returning.  Temperatures will begin to moderate closer to where we should be for this time of year, after a cold and frosty start.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly cloudy; 37/ 63

As high pressure moves to our east, it’ll allow a warmer return flow out of the southwest to help take over the region for the start of another work week. We’ll monitor a storm system to our west, but forecast dry skies for now next Monday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-forecast-changes-brewing/

Oct 06

Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

Rain was plentiful over the region over the past 48 hours.  While widespread 2″ rainfall was common for all of central Indiana, the heaviest rainfall fell across southern and eastern Indiana.

Here are a couple of illustrations of the rainfall totals.  The first image is storm total rainfall from the past 24 hours. Note the heavy, 4″ type rains over southern and eastern Indiana. The second image is off the awesome Weatherbell model site and shows the heavy rainfall event over Indiana that unfolded on a bigger scale.  Needless to say, the short term drought concerns that we were dealing with August and September have been erased.

1379925_643932488960824_62568978_n

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

rtma_precip_48

Temperatures are running MUCH cooler over the region today and we also note a drier, more fall-like, air mass building into the region.  A couple of other items- it’s easy to see where the cold front is currently located (as of this post) as many in Ohio are still dealing with warm, humid conditions.  Additionally, the cold core upper level low remains to our west and will rotate over our region Monday.  This will lead to an unseasonably cool day with mostly cloudy skies and the potential of a scattered shower.

rtma_glus

As we move forward, despite the cooler air to welcome in the new work week, we remain in a warmer than average pattern overall.  The PNA continues to dominate the pattern and until this goes positive, don’t look for any sort of sustained cool weather across the eastern US.

gfs_pna_bias

 

 

 

 

 

 

The European operational and ensemble show the current trough and associated cool air retreating and allowing a warmer southwesterly air flow to build in this week.

Monday

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_24

 

 

Thursday

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_96After a quiet time ahead (and much needed to dry out), our next significant storm system appears to arrive around mid month.  Both the GFS and European model are in agreement with this idea.  Does another potential significant rain maker and associated severe weather event lie ahead mid month?  Possibly.

Here’s a look at the upper air pattern out at Day 10 off the European model.  We note another significant storm system ejecting out into the Plains states, most likely after dumping another impressive early autumn snow on the central and northern Rockies.

ecm_z500_anom_noram_11

The GFS idea is something similar to that of the European, suggesting confidence is relatively high, at least from this distance.

gfs_z500_sig_noram_37

All of that said, we’re still in a “transient” pattern as the next big storm is shown crashing onshore along the west coast by both models.  We shouldn’t be surprised by a “transient” pattern this time of year. It’s October, after all- a month notorious for many swings on the thermometer.

We’ll close with a look at the European’s temperatures anomalies over the course of the next 10 days.  Note the chill of early week erased with above normal warmth for the majority of the period. Also, pay attention to the unseasonable chill coming off the Rockies and into the Plains towards the end of the period below.  This is associated with the mid month storm.

tavg_anom_ecmwf_conus_1

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-afternoon-rambles/

Oct 05

Noisy Night Ahead; Longer Range Thoughts

A noisy night is ahead as the promised heavy rain event and strong to severe thunderstorms arrive in the city around, or just prior to 8pm.  A couple of rounds…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/noisy-night-ahead-longer-range-thoughts/

Oct 04

Monitoring Where The Heaviest Axis Of Rain Sets Up

Good Friday morning!  Overnight model data is in and we continue to look things over from a total rainfall perspective, as well as any severe weather threat that exists Saturday evening. As of now, we anticipate the best chance of any kind of severe thunderstorms to occur Saturday evening/ night and the biggest threat appears to be from a damaging wind standpoint.  The latest severe weather outlook from the trusted Storm Prediction Center (SPC) places central and western Indiana under a Slight Risk of severe weather Saturday.

day2otlk_0600

 

 

 

 

 

The 12z NAM is hot off the press and suggests the heaviest rainfall threat is mostly east of Indianapolis proper.  There’s the chance rainfall amounts approach 2″ across far eastern Indiana.  We’ll continue to analyze the data as it comes in this afternoon and have a complete update posted later today.

nam_60hr_precip_east_21

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monitoring-where-the-heaviest-axis-of-rain-sets-up/