Category Archives: T-storms

Dry And Turning Hot; Watching Late Week…

Screen Shot 2016-08-07 at 10.47.30 AMHighlights:

  • Sun-filled days
  • Heat cranks up
  • Late week questions

Turning Up The Heat…After a refreshing weekend, the heat returns later this week.  Look for highs in the lower 90s with an oppressive feel to the air, as humidity builds.  “Air you can wear” will be an appropriate forecast title come mid week.  The forecast is easy through the midweek stretch with sunshine as the rule.

Things become more unclear as we approach the back half of the week and the weekend.  We note the GFS is rather progressive in swinging a cold front through here with scattered showers and thunderstorms, followed by a significantly cooler/ drier air mass a week from today.  On the  other hand, the European solution is drastically different as it slows the front to a “crawl” coming through the Ohio Valley and also entrains GOM (Gulf of Mexico) moisture from the serious rain/ flood maker later this week across the Gulf states.  It’s a significantly wetter look, locally, and a situation we’ll continue to keep a close eye on in the coming day, or two.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″
7-Day Outlook, Flooding, Forecast, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm

Lots Of Sunshine…

Screen Shot 2016-08-02 at 7.14.48 AMHighlights:

  • Lots of sunshine
  • Best storm chances Friday this week
  • Turning less humid this weekend

Sunglasses Required…The storm axis has set itself up to our west, including IA and MO.  At one point, data and upper level steering currents seemed to align in a manner that would be further east, but that’s obviously not the case.  The end result here will be a drier forecast, overall.  We’ll still have to remain on our toes for storm potential through week’s end, but the confidence is low and the drier regime looks good this morning.

Less humid air will push in this weekend, along with continued sunny conditions.  All in all, the first weekend of August looks very pleasant.  Plans to go to the State Fair anyone?

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″-0.50″ (locally heavier totals)
7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, T-storms

More Active Pattern Early Week…

The Corn Belt and parts of the Ohio Valley will be in a favorable position for periods of storminess as we progress through the early portions of the new week.

It’s an admittedly tricky pattern when it comes down to the all-important details (timing, track, etc.), but just know from this distance, it’s a pattern conducive for thunderstorm development and localized flash flooding.

The region will be located on the NE flank of a hot dome centered to our SW.
The region will be located on the NE flank of a hot dome centered to our SW.

Disturbances love to ride northwest to southeast around the periphery of the ridge.  Accordingly, the subtle northwest flow aloft will likely send a couple disturbances into the region over the early week stretch.

NWFlowThe atmosphere will be loaded with moisture and precipitable water values (2″+) will promote localized flash flooding within the storm complexes.

MoistureWe think the initial wave of storms will ride southeast late tonight and early Monday and could encompass SW portions of the forecast area.  The pattern is favorable for additional storm complexes to travel southeast Tuesday and Wednesday, however.

With the moisture content in the atmosphere, localized flash flooding will result where training takes place.  We caution that this won’t be a uniform event (some neighborhoods will see a half inch of rain this week while others may see as much as 3″-4″).  We’ll have to treat each complex as they come and fine tune the specifics within the forecast.

Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, T-storms