Category: T-storms

Oct 29

Tuesday Forecast: Changes Brewing…

Updated 10.29.13 @ 9:37a

Zionsville, IN It’s another calm, cold, quiet start to the day, but changes are brewing. These changes include warmer, more muggy air by tonight and Wednesday, widespread rain and storms for mid week, and another temperature plunge for the weekend.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Mostly cloudy; scattered nighttime showers; 0.10″; 37/ 62

After a calm, cold start to the day, clouds will increase and showers will develop tonight. We currently note widespread rain and embedded thunder across MO, but this will weaken as it encounters our dry air mass tonight. Light rain will likely overspread the region from southwest to northeast as we move through the nighttime hours.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconWednesday: Scattered showers; 0.10″; 55/ 67

The big story on Wednesday won’t be the rain, but instead the briefly warmer surge of air out ahead of our cold front. In fact, most of Wednesday should remain rain-free. Latest high resolution short term model data points to showers and a rumble of thunder exiting stage right Wednesday morning and while we can’t rule out an additional shower or thundershower through the day, most of the time will be rain-free Wednesday. South winds will begin to increase during the afternoon, gusting over 20 MPH.

Status-weather-storm-night-iconHalloween: Showers and thunderstorms; 1.10″; 59/ 66

A strong cold front will plow into the state Thursday night. Out ahead of this boundary, abundant moisture will surge north into the area. We’re not looking at all day rains Thursday, but target the afternoon-nighttime hours when rain and thunderstorms will be the most widespread. Additionally, we continue to monitor the severe threat with this system. Widespread and significant severe thunderstorms will be likely across southern IN and points south to include the western TN Valley. That said, severe weather reports will likely extend north to include central Indiana, as well. As of now, the primary severe threat appears to be from a damaging straight line wind perspective across our neck of the woods. Heavy rainfall will also be common as widespread 1″+ rains are likely.  Needless to say, you’ll certainly want to keep those weather radios tuned in Thursday.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy and breezy; 45/ 59 

The cold front will be to our east Friday, allowing the sunshine to return. It’ll be a breezy day, but the true cold air advection will hold off until Saturday, so temperatures will be very near seasonal levels Friday with a gusty northwest breeze.

imagesSaturday: Mostly cloudy; PM scattered showers (wet snow flake mixed in); 0.05″; 37/ 47

Fresh cold air will pour into the state Saturday and be accompanied by some upper level energy to create the threat of afternoon scattered showers.  Precipitation may mix with a wet snow flake Saturday evening. We think the day shapes up as a cold, raw day that will certainly require that jackets and sweaters.

Status-weather-clouds-iconSunday: Partly cloudy; 32/ 55

We’ll wrap up the weekend with sunshine returning.  Temperatures will begin to moderate closer to where we should be for this time of year, after a cold and frosty start.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly cloudy; 37/ 63

As high pressure moves to our east, it’ll allow a warmer return flow out of the southwest to help take over the region for the start of another work week. We’ll monitor a storm system to our west, but forecast dry skies for now next Monday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-forecast-changes-brewing/

Oct 06

Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

Rain was plentiful over the region over the past 48 hours.  While widespread 2″ rainfall was common for all of central Indiana, the heaviest rainfall fell across southern and eastern Indiana.

Here are a couple of illustrations of the rainfall totals.  The first image is storm total rainfall from the past 24 hours. Note the heavy, 4″ type rains over southern and eastern Indiana. The second image is off the awesome Weatherbell model site and shows the heavy rainfall event over Indiana that unfolded on a bigger scale.  Needless to say, the short term drought concerns that we were dealing with August and September have been erased.

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Temperatures are running MUCH cooler over the region today and we also note a drier, more fall-like, air mass building into the region.  A couple of other items- it’s easy to see where the cold front is currently located (as of this post) as many in Ohio are still dealing with warm, humid conditions.  Additionally, the cold core upper level low remains to our west and will rotate over our region Monday.  This will lead to an unseasonably cool day with mostly cloudy skies and the potential of a scattered shower.

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As we move forward, despite the cooler air to welcome in the new work week, we remain in a warmer than average pattern overall.  The PNA continues to dominate the pattern and until this goes positive, don’t look for any sort of sustained cool weather across the eastern US.

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The European operational and ensemble show the current trough and associated cool air retreating and allowing a warmer southwesterly air flow to build in this week.

Monday

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Thursday

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_96After a quiet time ahead (and much needed to dry out), our next significant storm system appears to arrive around mid month.  Both the GFS and European model are in agreement with this idea.  Does another potential significant rain maker and associated severe weather event lie ahead mid month?  Possibly.

Here’s a look at the upper air pattern out at Day 10 off the European model.  We note another significant storm system ejecting out into the Plains states, most likely after dumping another impressive early autumn snow on the central and northern Rockies.

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The GFS idea is something similar to that of the European, suggesting confidence is relatively high, at least from this distance.

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All of that said, we’re still in a “transient” pattern as the next big storm is shown crashing onshore along the west coast by both models.  We shouldn’t be surprised by a “transient” pattern this time of year. It’s October, after all- a month notorious for many swings on the thermometer.

We’ll close with a look at the European’s temperatures anomalies over the course of the next 10 days.  Note the chill of early week erased with above normal warmth for the majority of the period. Also, pay attention to the unseasonable chill coming off the Rockies and into the Plains towards the end of the period below.  This is associated with the mid month storm.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-afternoon-rambles/

Oct 05

Noisy Night Ahead; Longer Range Thoughts

A noisy night is ahead as the promised heavy rain event and strong to severe thunderstorms arrive in the city around, or just prior to 8pm.  A couple of rounds…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/noisy-night-ahead-longer-range-thoughts/

Oct 04

Monitoring Where The Heaviest Axis Of Rain Sets Up

Good Friday morning!  Overnight model data is in and we continue to look things over from a total rainfall perspective, as well as any severe weather threat that exists Saturday evening. As of now, we anticipate the best chance of any kind of severe thunderstorms to occur Saturday evening/ night and the biggest threat appears to be from a damaging wind standpoint.  The latest severe weather outlook from the trusted Storm Prediction Center (SPC) places central and western Indiana under a Slight Risk of severe weather Saturday.

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The 12z NAM is hot off the press and suggests the heaviest rainfall threat is mostly east of Indianapolis proper.  There’s the chance rainfall amounts approach 2″ across far eastern Indiana.  We’ll continue to analyze the data as it comes in this afternoon and have a complete update posted later today.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monitoring-where-the-heaviest-axis-of-rain-sets-up/

Oct 02

Thursday Forecast; Warm & Muggy Conditions Prevail

Forecast updated 10.03.13 @ 7:32a

Zionsville, IN It sure is hard to believe we’re in early October.  Multiple days with dew points running at summer-like levels, along with temperatures a solid 10 degrees above normal will continue as we wrap up the work week. We discuss rain/ storm chances below. Even this morning there are considerable differences between the European and GFS, in particular.

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Today: Scattered showers- 0.20″; 66/ 81

We think considerable cloudiness dominates the central Indiana landscape with scattered showers.  Rainfall amounts will be light for most and certainly much less than the aggressive European model suggested earlier in the week. We’ll sum today up as Mostly cloudy, warm, and muggy, with scattered showers.  We’re not looking at all day rains by any means, but keep the rain gear handy in case a shower moves through while you’re out and about.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 65/ 83

While we can’t completely rule out an isolated to widely scattered shower Friday, we anticipate most neighborhoods remaining dry.  Warm and unseasonably humid conditions will persist as we put a wrap on another work week.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconSaturday:  Partly cloudy, late night showers and t-storms- 0.40″; 66/ 82

Most of your Saturday should feature nice early autumn weather conditions.  In fact, it’ll feel more like summer rather than fall as gusty southwest winds help temperatures zoom into the lower 80s with a partly cloudy sky. Winds will gust upwards of 25 MPH in the open country Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, clouds will begin to increase later Saturday afternoon and showers and thunderstorms will move in Saturday night, in advance of a cold front.

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Sunday: Early showers and t-storms then decreasing clouds- 0.50″; 48/ 66

After reviewing latest model data we now think most of the showers and thunderstorms fall during the first half of your Sunday with decreasing cloudiness, falling temperatures, and a distinct wind shift taking shape Sunday afternoon. That said, as mentioned to open the forecast above, considerable model differences remain between our two more powerful forecast models. Stay tuned. Once the front blows east of the region, you’ll certainly know it as a MUCH cooler and drier air mass is ushered in on winds gusting upwards of 25 MPH.

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly cloudy; 44/ 63

“Now this is what it’s supposed to be like!”  That’s at least what this weatherman will be saying Monday. After a period of multiple days of unseasonably warm and muggy conditions, it’ll be nice to get some actual fall-like weather to enjoy as we kick off the new work week.

Status-weather-clouds-icon

Tuesday: Partly cloudy; 43/ 69

I hope you liked Monday’s weather forecast, as we’ll repeat that on Tuesday- perhaps just with a touch more sunshine and moderating afternoon temperatures, after a chilly start to the day.  Pumpkin spice latte anyone?

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Wednesday: Partly cloudy; 49/ 74

The early take at the middle of next week shows dry skies remaining with temperatures moderating back to above normal levels.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-forecast-warm-muggy-conditions-prevail/