Weekend Video Update…
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Warm, But Unsettled Week…
Highlights:
- Unseasonably warm week
- Multiple rounds of rain and embedded thunderstorms
- Eyeing winter’s return next week
Have The Rain Gear Handy…While we’ll enjoy unseasonably mild temperatures, the wet and unsettled theme we’ve been dealing with as of late we’ll continue this week.
Most of the daytime today will feature more dry time than wet with just scattered showers expected before more widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms arrive by nightfall. Wet and periodically stormy times continue tonight into the early morning hours Tuesday. After a predawn high in the mid 50s, temperatures will slowly fall during the day Tuesday before remaining steady in the middle to upper 40s for the balance of the afternoon.
We may get a brief (rare) look at the sun Wednesday as we’ll be in between weather systems, but have no fear, as our next storm will be developing to our south and arrive with showers Thursday. 🙂 Rain and perhaps a thunderstorm continue Friday, especially through the first half of the day.
The majority of Saturday will feature dry and warm (early spring-like) conditions, but clouds will increase during the second half of the day and showers will push north into the state at night. Windy, wet conditions continue Sunday.
Longer-term, forecast models continue to paint a significantly colder, wintry pattern as we go through the last week of the month.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″
Weekend Ice And Heavy Rain Next Week…
Highlights:
- Turning colder
- Freezing rain develops Friday night
- Wet times continue
Active Times; Excessive Rainfall Risk Next Week…The overall weather pattern remains very active AND very wet. By the time all is said and done, an additional 3″ of rain is possible for a widespread portion of the region by the middle of next week, with locally heavier amounts. Lets time it out.
The focus in the shorter-term is for colder air to build in. Temperatures today will fall (after a spring-like feel during the wee morning hours). We’ll be in the 30s by mid to late afternoon and below freezing later this evening. Arctic high pressure will continue to force cold, dry air south across central IN as we wrap up the work week. At the same time, warm, moist air aloft will ride over the cold air trapped at the surface and trouble looms by Friday night. We expect light freezing rain to develop after dark and continue into Saturday morning. As disturbances move along the arctic boundary, additional precipitation (mostly light) will overspread central Indiana from time to time over the weekend. We want to continue to reiterate that a 1-2 degree temperature difference will mean a tremendous difference between additional ice accumulation and plain ole cold rain. Thinking is that the freeze line will shift north of the I-70 corridor Saturday afternoon before settling south towards I-70 again Saturday night and Sunday morning. We still have time to fine tune things, but as of now it seems likely that anywhere from 0.10″ to 0.20″ of glaze (freezing rain) will be possible across most central IN communities Friday night into Saturday.
We’ll get rid of the freezing rain early next week and bust back into a warm southwesterly air flow. Models are struggling with the precise details of how things evolve in the early-mid week period, but confidence remains very high on continued wet times. In fact, the GFS pulls a slug of 1.5″ precipitable water values (PWATs) north into the state the middle of next week and suggest the heavy rain threat remains Tuesday and Wednesday. By the middle of next week, we have to start becoming concerned for flood potential across the region.
Hang in there, we’ll see the sunshine return…some day.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 2.50″ – 3.00″
Turning Colder After A Wet Open To The Week…
Highlights:
- Unsettled open to the week
- Turning colder Tuesday
- Couple snow chances, but low confidence
Wet Open To The Week…Clouds waited to increase until after sunset Sunday and the more than expected sunshine led to a downright beauty of a kickoff to 2017, complete with mild temperatures. Unfortunately, those pleasant conditions won’t last as we deal with increasing coverage of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Monday. Rain coverage appears greatest during the evening into the nighttime hours.
An arctic cold front will sweep through the state Tuesday afternoon and lead to a dramatic temperature plunge for the rest of the week. Showers Tuesday will end as a touch of wet snow before precipitation moves out.
Forecast models are still struggling with handling Pacific energy for mid and late week. This is leading to a lower than normal confidence level with two potential systems Thursday and again Saturday. For now, we’re eyeing the threat of light snow with both and believe modeling will come around to more of a weather maker once time draws closer. Stay tuned. Cold weather remains as we progress through next weekend.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Unseasonably Warm; Wet Day After Christmas…
Highlights:
- Unseasonably warm today
- Showers and perhaps a t-storm by lunchtime
- Turning more seasonable later this week
Wet At Times Today…A cold front will push across the state later this afternoon. Ahead of the front, a warm southwesterly air flow will lead to a spring-like feel on this day after Christmas. Coverage of showers will increase by late morning and around lunchtime, including the possibility of an embedded thunderstorm. Once the front sweeps through the region, our winds will flip to the northwest and result in a cooler feel as early as tonight. Tuesday will feature much more seasonable conditions.
Reinforcing chilly air will blow into town Thursday afternoon and with enough upper level energy around, we’ll mention scattered snow showers in our forecast. Colder weather will be with us to close the week and head into New Year’s weekend.
Speaking of New Year’s, we still eye a storm system around New Year’s Eve. Confidence is low in the overall set-up in regards to storm track and timing and fine tuning will be required. For now, we’ll simply go with a developing light wintry mix Saturday and “sure up” the details later this week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: Dusting
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″