Category Archives: T-storms

Weekend Ice And Heavy Rain Next Week…

Screen Shot 2017-01-12 at 7.08.19 AM

Highlights:

  • Turning colder
  • Freezing rain develops Friday night
  • Wet times continue

Active Times; Excessive Rainfall Risk Next Week…The overall weather pattern remains very active AND very wet.  By the time all is said and done, an additional 3″ of rain is possible for a widespread portion of the region by the middle of next week, with locally heavier amounts.  Lets time it out.

The focus in the shorter-term is for colder air to build in.  Temperatures today will fall (after a spring-like feel during the wee morning hours).  We’ll be in the 30s by mid to late afternoon and below freezing later this evening.  Arctic high pressure will continue to force cold, dry air south across central IN as we wrap up the work week.  At the same time, warm, moist air aloft will ride over the cold air trapped at the surface and trouble looms by Friday night.  We expect light freezing rain to develop after dark and continue into Saturday morning.  As disturbances move along the arctic boundary, additional precipitation (mostly light) will overspread central Indiana from time to time over the weekend.  We want to continue to reiterate that a 1-2 degree temperature difference will mean a tremendous difference between additional ice accumulation and plain ole cold rain.  Thinking is that the freeze line will shift north of the I-70 corridor Saturday afternoon before settling south towards I-70 again Saturday night and Sunday morning.  We still have time to fine tune things, but as of now it seems likely that anywhere from 0.10″ to 0.20″ of glaze (freezing rain) will be possible across most central IN communities Friday night into Saturday.

We’ll get rid of the freezing rain early next week and bust back into a warm southwesterly air flow.  Models are struggling with the precise details of how things evolve in the early-mid week period, but confidence remains very high on continued wet times.  In fact, the GFS pulls a slug of 1.5″ precipitable water values (PWATs) north into the state the middle of next week and suggest the heavy rain threat remains Tuesday and Wednesday.  By the middle of next week, we have to start becoming concerned for flood potential across the region.

Hang in there, we’ll see the sunshine return…some day.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall:  2.50″ – 3.00″ 
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Freezing Rain, Heavy Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm

Turning Colder After A Wet Open To The Week…

screen-shot-2017-01-01-at-7-25-02-pmHighlights:

  • Unsettled open to the week
  • Turning colder Tuesday
  • Couple snow chances, but low confidence

Wet Open To The Week…Clouds waited to increase until after sunset Sunday and the more than expected sunshine led to a downright beauty of a kickoff to 2017, complete with mild temperatures.  Unfortunately, those pleasant conditions won’t last as we deal with increasing coverage of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Monday.  Rain coverage appears greatest during the evening into the nighttime hours.

An arctic cold front will sweep through the state Tuesday afternoon and lead to a dramatic temperature plunge for the rest of the week.  Showers Tuesday will end as a touch of wet snow before precipitation moves out.

Forecast models are still struggling with handling Pacific energy for mid and late week.  This is leading to a lower than normal confidence level with two potential systems Thursday and again Saturday.  For now, we’re eyeing the threat of light snow with both and believe modeling will come around to more of a weather maker once time draws closer.  Stay tuned.  Cold weather remains as we progress through next weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Rain, snow, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Unseasonably Warm; Wet Day After Christmas…

screen-shot-2016-12-26-at-8-33-12-amHighlights:

  • Unseasonably warm today
  • Showers and perhaps a t-storm by lunchtime
  • Turning more seasonable later this week

Wet At Times Today…A cold front will push across the state later this afternoon.  Ahead of the front, a warm southwesterly air flow will lead to a spring-like feel on this day after Christmas.  Coverage of showers will increase by late morning and around lunchtime, including the possibility of an embedded thunderstorm.  Once the front sweeps through the region, our winds will flip to the northwest and result in a cooler feel as early as tonight.  Tuesday will feature much more seasonable conditions.

Reinforcing chilly air will blow into town Thursday afternoon and with enough upper level energy around, we’ll mention scattered snow showers in our forecast.  Colder weather will be with us to close the week and head into New Year’s weekend.

Speaking of New Year’s, we still eye a storm system around New Year’s Eve.  Confidence is low in the overall set-up in regards to storm track and timing and fine tuning will be required.  For now, we’ll simply go with a developing light wintry mix Saturday and “sure up” the details later this week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Forecast, Rain, snow, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Wintry Mix

Merry Christmas Eve…

screen-shot-2016-12-24-at-8-03-42-amHighlights:

  • Areas of fog
  • Rising temperatures Christmas night
  • Turning more seasonable next week

Ah, Christmas Eve…From our home to yours, we wish you a very merry Christmas and a blessed holiday season.  It’s hard to believe Christmas Eve is upon us.  Despite areas of fog and an overcast, chilly day, weather really won’t present much of a challenge, locally, for travelers or last-minute shoppers (surely we don’t have any of those in central IN).  😉  Rudolph will be needed tonight as areas of fog and low clouds remain across portions of the state.

Conditions will remain damp and chilly into Christmas as most of the day remains in the 30s.  Our air flow will shift to the south Christmas afternoon and provide a late day boost on the thermometer into the 40s after dark and near 50 by midnight.  As we see the southerly wind erode the chilly conditions in place we’ll also have to be on the look out for a passing shower Christmas afternoon.

Better shower coverage will push in ahead of the cold front Monday morning.  An embedded clap of thunder is also possible.  Winds will shift to the NW with the passage of the cold front Monday afternoon and cooler air will spill into central IN Monday night. That high you see in the upper 50s will come just prior to the frontal passage.

After the mild start Monday, seasonable temperatures will return next week.  Models are struggling with handling a piece of energy the middle of next week.  We’ll keep an eye on it over the next day or so.  Scattered snow showers will likely accompany a push of colder air Thursday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting
  • Rainfall: 0.50″-0.75″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Forecast, Rain, snow, T-storms

Changeable Weather Christmas To New Years…

It’s hard to believe we’re only a few days from Christmas!  Through the 22nd, Indianapolis is running a whopping 6 degrees below average.  Cold rules across the Lower 48, month-to-date.

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomThis is, of course, is in stark contrast to December 2015.

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2015As we move forward, an active pattern awaits between now and the end of the year.  This comes after a few days to catch our breath, including moderating temperatures leading up to Christmas.

An initial wave of moisture will lift northeast and result in a rather gloomy day Friday with increasing rain chances Friday afternoon and evening.  Initially, precipitation won’t make it to the ground, but we should saturate the column enough that rain reaches the ground for most of central IN by evening.  Showers continue Friday night into the wee morning hours Christmas Eve.  (If traveling towards Chicago, a wintry mix and snow will be a good bet Friday PM).

hires_ref_ky_18Christmas Eve will feature overcast skies with areas of fog and drizzle, but the majority of the concentrated rain should fall south of the region.  Santa’s ride into central IN should be uneventful, weather-wise.

Christmas Day will start off with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s along with cloudy conditions and an increasingly gusty breeze that will shift out of the southeast to the south Christmas night.  Shower chances will be present by the evening before giving way to more widespread showers and embedded thunder overnight into Monday morning.  Temperatures will be stuck in the 40s most of the daytime Christmas before rising into the upper 50s predawn Monday.

gfs_ptype_slp_indy_17Temperatures will fall through the day Monday and we should run much closer to seasonable temperatures next week.  A couple of additional storm systems will have to be monitored for rain and snow prospects the middle of next week and again around New Year’s Eve/ Day.  Initially, we’ll be rather mild, but there may be more in the way of cold air readily available to make the storm system around New Years “more interesting” from a wintry perspective.

Longer term, we have to wonder if the negative EPO isn’t about to take control just past the New Year.  More and more data is coming around to the idea that the arctic hounds may (yet again) be on the attack early January… Time will tell and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

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2 Comments 10-day, Arctic Cold, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, snow, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Wintry Mix