Category Archives: T-storms

Storms May Rumble In Later Today; Cooler For Midweek…

We’ve enjoyed a warm and beautiful weekend, and most of Sunday will follow that pleasant them.  However, a cold front will drop south into the state later today and this “trigger” mechanism, combined with the heating of the day, will likely spark a broken line of thunderstorms.  These storms will sink south into central Indiana later this evening, and a couple of storms could become strong.

Modeled radar shows how things may evolve later this evening, including time stamps at 5p, 8p, and 10p.

Most significant rainfall will occur across the northern half of the state, including a couple of 1″+ totals in the heavier storms.

As we push into the midweek stretch, cooler, refreshing air will take up residence across the region.  Temperatures will run significantly cooler than average, including lows in the upper 40s for some Wednesday and Thursday morning and highs only in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  Dry weather will continue, as well.

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Overall Dry And Pleasant Weather Continues…

Highlights:

  • Scattered late-day storms Sunday
  • Dry weather returns
  • Cooler next week

Scattered Strong Storms Late Sunday…Our beautiful weekend weather will continue into Sunday.  Expect a mostly dry day along with warm and humid conditions.  A cold front will approach late in the day and we still think a broken line of thunderstorms will slip south into central Indiana Sunday evening into Sunday night.  A couple of these could become strong, but a widespread severe weather event isn’t anticipated.

We’ll quickly get back to dry conditions as we open the new work week and another extended spell of rain-free conditions should carry us through the balance of the upcoming forecast period.  Additionally, a notable cooling trend will engulf the region.  With dry skies, low humidity, and highs in the lower 70s it’ll be picture-perfect to spend time outdoors.

Moisture will begin to return next weekend and, accordingly, we’ll introduce scattered showers and thunderstorms into our forecast next Saturday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Drier Trend Continues This Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Dry close to the work week
  • Mostly dry weekend
  • Slightly cooler next week

Models Continue To Trend Drier…It was only a couple days ago that models were suggesting the threat of heavy rain and scattered strong storms this weekend- beginning Friday.  In this business, it doesn’t take long for things to change sometimes, but this is the first legitimate change for the “drier” that we’ve seen with storm systems since winter.  Time and time again as we draw closer to events, modeling has had to play “catch up” for the wetter over the past few months.

The end result is one that will feature a mostly dry weekend, including only isolated storm coverage Saturday afternoon and evening (most stay dry) and scattered coverage Sunday.  As a whole, many more dry hours are expected this weekend than stormy.

The other big takeaway over the past few days is the cool bias models have had.  This is noted and documented and we’re adjusting our forecast accordingly moving forward.  Drier and cooler air will arrive after Monday showers, but temperatures won’t run nearly as cool as once projected.  For the second week in a row, very pleasant and refreshing weather is ahead for the middle of the week.  Not bad, at all, by June standards.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Pleasant Now; Weekend Storm Chances Return…

Highlights:

  • Sunshine returns
  • Very pleasant
  • Weekend storms
  • Much cooler next week

Very Pleasant…After a couple of gusty thundershowers overnight we’re quickly back to dry and very pleasant weather conditions today.  Thankfully, sunshine and refreshing temperatures will continue Thursday.

Moisture begins to return as early as Friday afternoon and scattered late-day thunderstorms are possible.  While scattered thunderstorms will continue Saturday, there will be more dry time than wet and stormy.  The most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will occur Sunday as a cold front moves in.

That cold front will be off to our east Sunday night and help usher in a much cooler feel early next week.  Gusty northwest winds and a couple showers are still possible at times through early week.  The bigger story will be the unseasonably cool temperatures as we expect highs in the upper 60s both Monday and Tuesday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 2.00″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Challenging Northwest Flow Remains…

The region will remain in a challenging northwest flow for the balance of the upcoming 10-14 day period.  This can play havoc with forecast models, particularly from a timing standpoint.  In short, expect a continuation of active weather, including wetter and cooler than normal conditions.

Another weak disturbance will kick up a few scattered showers and potentially an embedded thunderstorm tonight.  Similar to Monday, this will come after a gorgeous day.

Forecast radar at 1a Wednesday shows scattered showers still impacting portions of the state:

The majority of our midweek stretch looks rain-free, but more widespread showers and thunderstorms will return as we push into the weekend.  Recent trends have also slowed the FROPA (frontal passage) down significantly- now perhaps not until late Sunday.

There will be dry time this weekend, but with a moisture laden air mass in place, locally heavy downpours can be expected, including rainfall potential of 1″+ this weekend for neighborhoods that get under a heavier storm.

Longer-term, modeling continues to suggest a cooler than normal pattern persists as we push through the first half of June.

In fact, there may be a couple of days early next week where highs struggle to reach 70° with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.  Very refreshing, indeed, for early June.

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather