Category Archives: T-storms

Highly Amplified Pattern; Making Up For Lost Time In The Summer Department…

So far this month, unseasonably cool conditions have set up shop across the eastern portion of the country (IND is running more than 4° below normal through the 16th) while the west has experienced a much warmer than average pattern.

That will flip around in big time fashion this week as a highly amplified pattern takes hold.  The mean trough position will shift into the west and lead to an early taste of winter, including mountain snow.  Meanwhile, our region will make up for lost time in the summer department, including highs generally in the mid to upper 80s (around 10° above average).

Daily chances of widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be with us beginning today through the majority of the upcoming week.  Everyone won’t get wet, but there will be a couple of localized heavy downpours on area radars at times.  As dry as we’ve been, we’ll take what we can get.

Eventually, the pattern will “relax” (at least briefly) out towards Day 10.  This will feature a more seasonable regime returning to the region, along with better chances of more widespread rains as a cold front approaches.  We’ll also have to keep a close eye on additional tropical threats to the southeast region…

10-day, Autumn, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Still Some Summer Left In The Tank…

Highlights:

  • Warmth builds
  • Storms chances (finally) return
  • Rinse and repeat

Summer Isn’t Finished Yet…We may be inching ever so much closer to the official start of autumn (next Friday), but don’t tell Mother Nature that.  After an unusually cool close to August and open to September, we’re set to make up for lost time over the next couple of weeks.  Heat will build and expand across the Mid West this weekend and that will set the tone for the upcoming forecast period.

Weather conditions should remain dry to kick off the weekend (great day for the Whitestown Brewfest, by the way), but moisture will return for the second half of the weekend.  Combine the increasing moisture with enough lift and widely scattered thunderstorms will fire Sunday.  Overall coverage won’t be particularly impressive, but will be a harbinger of things to come as the new week unfolds.  A couple of surface fronts will push up against the strong ridge in place as we progress through the work week.  While these will “wash out” over the Ohio Valley, they’ll be sufficient enough to provide scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms next week.  Our parched soils will take anything they can get!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm

Mid-October Weather…

Highlights:

  • Widely scattered storms this afternoon
  • Well below average temperatures
  • Overall dry pattern continues

Jackets Required…Hoosiers are waking up to temperatures all the way down into the middle and upper 40s away from the city this morning (sure is hard to beat this crisp fall air).  Sunshine will greet us out the door, but we’ll notice increasing cloudiness this afternoon and widely scattered thundershowers will follow.  Most will stay dry, but enough upper level energy will interact with the cool air aloft to generate “pop corn” variety thundershowers this afternoon and evening.  Additionally, highs in the mid 60s today and Thursday will be more like mid-October than early-September.

There’s no reason to waste a lot of pixels on the rest of the forecast period.  Dry weather will dominate.  Reinforcing cool air will arrive by the weekend and that cooler than average feel will remain throughout the forecast period.  We’ll notice a gusty easterly wind at times late in the weekend and early next week as the pressure gradient tightens a bit between an area of high pressure to our northeast and Irma moving north into the Southeast.

Tropics:  Irma continues to dominate the headlines, and rightfully so.  This morning we have (2) additional storms: Jose and Katia. Jose is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane tonight, but should remain a “fish storm.”  Katia will meander around the Bay of Campeche over the next few days and doesn’t pose a threat to the US.

Irma remains a category 5 beast this morning and overnight data continues to paint an ominous picture for the southeastern coast. Folks from the southern FL peninsula all the way up the coast to include the Carolinas need to remain abreast of the latest developments on Irma in the days ahead.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Friday evening for southern Florida.  Eventually, more of the southeast can expect impacts from Irma late weekend and next week, including interior areas such as the southern Appalachians…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.00″ – 0.10″
7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Irma, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather

VIDEO: Severe Potential Tonight, October-Like Chill, And Irma…

The Storm Prediction Center includes an Enhanced Risk of severe weather across north-central parts of the state this evening.  Damaging winds are of greatest concern with the stronger storms embedded in a squall line that will move from north to south this evening (generally between 6p-midnight).

MUCH cooler air will descend into the region as we progress through the week.  Temperatures will be so cool, it’ll feel more like October rather than September, including multiple nights with lows settling into the 40s and highs not making it out of the 60s.

Autumn, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Irma, Labor Day Weekend, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Videos

Strong Cold Front Delivers Storms And Another Surge Of October-Like Air…

Today will be dry and pleasant and most of Labor Day, itself, will follow suit.  We’ll notice an increasingly gusty southwest wind by afternoon and this will help boost temperatures into the upper 80s Monday afternoon.

However, once to Labor Day evening, attention will shift off to our north as a line of thunderstorms approaches.  A few embedded storms within this line may reach strong-to-severe levels.  Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with the stronger storms.  The Storm Prediction Center has included the region in a Slight Risk of severe weather Monday evening.

After a mostly dry and warm Labor Day, we’ll focus on the evening hours (bracketing 6p-10p) for storms to rumble in.  As mentioned, a couple of these could reach strong to severe levels.

6p forecast radar
8p forecast radar
9p forecast radar
10p forecast radar

Once the front blows through, our winds will shift to the northwest and help usher in a much cooler air mass.  Average highs in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 40s don’t occur until early-October.  We’ll be around 30 days ahead of schedule throughout the majority of the upcoming week, as overnight lows in the upper 40s to around 50 and highs in the upper 60s to around 70 will be common.

 

Autumn, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Labor Day Weekend, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather