Category: T-storms

Jun 14

Another Stormy Day Ahead…

The Storm Prediction Center includes the northwestern portions of the state in a Slight Risk of severe weather later this afternoon and evening.  Given the overall set-up and morning trends from data, it wouldn’t surprise us if this threat expands further southeast in future updates later today from the SPC.

Similar to Tuesday, any storms that develop will be capable of locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  While storms should move in a quicker fashion today, precipitable water values (PWATs) remain downright tropical and will exceed 2″ later this afternoon.

Overall storm coverage should become more widespread as we push into the afternoon and evening hours.  Here’s what the radar may look like during the 4p, 6p, and 10p time frames:

From a severe perspective, the biggest concern is damaging straight line winds with stronger storms.  Remain weather-aware later today, friends!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/another-stormy-day-ahead/

Jun 13

“Soupy” Now, But Changes Loom…

Highlights:

  • Scattered storms remain
  • Oppressive feel
  • Cooler times next week

Locally Heavy Storms…We’ll remain locked into a very warm and moist air mass through the remainder of the week, but there’s light at the end of the tunnel.  If you’re not a fan of the hot, humid weather, hang in there; next week will offer up a much different feel!

Before we discuss the cooler times that loom next week we still have to face several days of muggy weather and daily scattered storms.  With such a “soupy” air mass in place (precipitable water exceeding 2″), any storms will be capable of producing torrential downpours.  Similar to that of today, there will be “haves and have nots” over the next few days, but any storms that develop will have the potential of quickly pulsing to strong to severe levels and producing localized flash flooding.

Once to Sunday, a cold front will sweep through the state and finally wash all of the warm and humid air off to the southeast.  While scattered storms will remain in our forecast through the weekend, a drier and cooler air mass will arrive on the scene early next week.  Hang in there, friends!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″ (locally heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/soupy-now-but-changes-loom/

Jun 13

VIDEO: Hot, Humid Weather Gives Way To Better Storm Chances…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-hot-humid-weather-gives-way-to-better-storm-chances/

Jun 11

Model Data Remains Consistent On A More Active Pattern Returning…

Today’s 12z model suite is in and it remains consistent on a more active weather pattern returning to the delight of many Hoosiers! A blend of the GFS and European 10-day rainfall numbers print out 2″ for Indianapolis.  The GFS ensemble ‘mean’ (a blend of 21 individual members) agrees.

Best overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms should come in (3) waves over the upcoming 10-day period:

  • Wednesday into Thursday
  • Saturday into Sunday
  • Middle parts of the following week

While we don’t see any sort of uniform type rains in the upcoming period, the “smattering” of storms should help most neighborhoods get in on the rainy “goods” at one time or another over the upcoming week and a half.  Keep in mind, we’re in mid-June now and it’s mighty difficult to ask for anything much more than scattered storms this time of year on through late-summer…unless a tropical entity gets involved.  That’s just the way this time of year is.  With that said, localized torrential downpours are a very good bet from time to time, beginning as early as mid-week, as precipitable water values approach, or exceed, 2″ (about as moisture-rich as you can ask the air mass to get around these parts) into the upcoming weekend.

As I type this outside on the back porch this evening, I hear the sounds of sprinklers in full-force through the ‘hood.  Thankfully, Mother Nature will help save on the water bill later this week.  Longer-term, you’ll hear us use the word “transient” many times this summer when discussing the overall weather pattern.  Thankfully that tends to result in a fairly busy time of things.  Before you know it, college football season will be back (83 days until my beloved Auburn Tigers kick-off), those wetter autumn storms will return, and thoughts will begin to shift to winter (they may have already started here :-))- not that we’re trying to rush summer away or anything…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/model-data-remains-consistent-on-a-more-active-pattern-returning/

Jun 11

Hot And Humid; Storms Chances Return…

Highlights:

  • Dry conditions continue
  • Hot and turning humid
  • Storm chances return

Tropical Feel Develops…Pleasant air is on borrowed time and we’ll begin to notice an increasingly muggy feel to the air as early as this afternoon.  Dew points will reach oppressive levels Monday into Tuesday (70° and above).  With the increased moisture, isolated thunderstorms will develop Tuesday, but most should still remain rain-free.  Better shower and thunderstorm coverage will be noted Wednesday into Thursday as a frontal system moves through the state.  This won’t be a “uniform” rain, but locally heavy downpours can be expected in the stronger storms.  As dry as we’ve been, we’ll take what we can get.  It’s a start, at the very least, towards a more active second half of June.

We’ll dry things out briefly Friday before another storm system approaches next weekend.  Early indications would suggest next weekend’s storm system will provide more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.

Tropics:  Interesting times appear to be looming in the Gulf of Mexico as we push into the last couple weeks of the month.  Models continue to paint various scenarios on potential early season tropical development and any one solution can’t be bought just yet.  That said, the overall pattern does seem to want to promote some tropical “mischief” in the coming 10 days, or so.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hot-and-humid-storms-chances-return/