Category: T-storms

Jun 20

Active Weather Pattern Remains; Much Cooler To Close June…

Highlights:

  • PM storms
  • Dry midweek
  • Wet close to the work week
  • Much cooler air looms

Busy Times…Upper level energy and just enough instability could spark another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  Similar to Monday, these will be quick-movers, but shouldn’t be quite as strong as yesterday.

Dry weather will return through midweek and while pleasant air will still be with us Wednesday, a more humid feel will develop Thursday.  Showers and thunderstorms will begin to creep back into the picture Thursday downstate, but we believe most of central Indiana should remain rain-free.

We’ll be in a “squeeze play” of sorts to close the work week and head into the weekend.  A cold front will drop in from the north while remnant tropical moisture moves north out of the Deep South.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms should result, including the potential of locally heavy rain.

The big story over the weekend into the last week of the month will be unseasonably cool air.  Enough upper level energy will be around in a fast northwest flow aloft to lead to shower chances Sunday, otherwise early next week looks stunning- including plentiful sunshine, dry air, and unseasonably cool temperatures.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/active-weather-pattern-remains-much-cooler-to-close-june/

Jun 19

Refreshing Open To The Week; Scattered Storm Chances Remain…

Highlights:

  • Feelin’ nice
  • Scattered storms remain
  • More widespread storms late week

Pleasant Open To The Work Week…A step out the door this morning will reveal a much more pleasant feel than what we’ve grown accustomed to over the past week, or so.  Much lower humidity and cooler air will be with us through the day Tuesday.  With that said, enough upper level energy will be nearby to spark afternoon and evening showers and embedded thundershowers both today and Tuesday.

Humidity will return for the midweek stretch, and temperatures will also be on the climb.  While the weekend looks unsettled, the precise details remain a bit “murky” at this point.  We know a cold front will slice into the warm and humid air mass, which will serve as a trigger for more widespread showers and thunderstorms (some with locally heavy rain).  Some model guidance wants to get tropical moisture involved (from whatever comes of what’s currently Invest 93L). Stay tuned as we continue to look over the data this week.  Regardless, a much cooler and drier air mass will arrive next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/refreshing-open-to-the-week-scattered-storm-chances-remain/

Jun 18

Upcoming Week Headliners…

I. Drier and Cooler Air Returns:  A cold front will pass this evening and allow a much less humid and cooler air mass to return to the state.  Dew points will fall into the 50s by Monday morning and highs should only reach the upper 70s to around 80 Monday afternoon.  Refreshing air will remain in place through the day Tuesday.

A much less humid air mass will arrive to open the work week.

II. Watching the Gulf:  All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico this week as it tries to breed early season tropical “mischief.”  There are many more questions than answers right now concerning the all-important details (ultimate track and strength), but confidence is high on a depression or storm forming in the Gulf by middle to latter portions of the week.  Early thinking would place more emphasis on this being a big inland rain event across portions of the southeast, as opposed to this thing ramping up fast enough to be a big wind/ surge problem, but stay tuned.

Confidence is high on early season tropical development this week in the Gulf of Mexico.

III. Unsettled Weather Returns:  A storm system will approach the region by the latter portions of the work week, including the weekend.  As a result, a warmer and increasingly moist air mass will return and help spawn showers and thunderstorms.  Unfortunately, timing isn’t our friend as numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast Friday-Sunday.  Locally heavy rain is also a good bet.

Heavy rain and storm chances increase late week.

IV. June Ends On A Cool Note:  Once we get rid of the significant storm next weekend, an unseasonably cool air mass will build in over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in the 8-10 day time period.  How do highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s sound and lows in the middle 50s?

Models agree on an unseasonably cool close to June.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/upcoming-week-headliners/

Jun 17

Tropical Feel; Stormy Later Tonight…

Highlights:

  • Strong storms late tonight
  • Turning cooler and less humid
  • Unsettled pattern back half of next week

Storms Rumble In Late Tonight…Most of the daytime today will be dry and hot.  High humidity will also be with us and will help boost heat indices into the middle 90s.  Take it easy outdoors today.

We’ll have to keep a close eye on radar trends upstream tonight as a complex of thunderstorms is expected to erupt to our northwest this evening.  This storm complex will track southeast and begin impacting Indiana by late-evening (thinking around 11p, or so, across northwest portions of the state as of now).  As we push into the overnight, these storms will continue to settle southeast, including central Indiana.  A couple of these storms may be strong and with such high moisture content, locally heavy rainfall is, once again, a good bet.

A couple of showers or thunderstorms will be with us Father’s Day, but outdoor plans shouldn’t be cancelled, as most of the day appears to be dry.  It’ll be a cooler day and less humid air will filter into the state Sunday night.  This will produce a glorious open to the work week!

Unsettled weather will return by the middle and latter portions of next week, along with a briefly warmer and more humid feel.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″ 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tropical-feel-stormy-later-tonight/

Jun 15

JMA Weeklies: Heat Relief Coming And An Active Pattern As We Get Into July…

The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:

  • Heat relief on the way through Week 1
  • Core of heat, relative to normal, backs west through the period
  • Active NW flow regime to open July

Week 1:  

The JMA Weeklies really try to emphasize the “transient” nature of the pattern and associated dry, hot weather some folks were becoming concerned about only a couple of days ago.  Week 1 is highlighted by a much wetter regime through the Ohio Valley and most of the East.  As the ridge pulls back west, a cooler regime returns to our region, while the Southwest bakes with anomalously hot weather.

Week 2:  

The pattern favors wetter than normal conditions across the upper Mid West, including Great Lakes.  The mean upper ridge is forecast to remain out west.  Fittingly, the warmest temperatures, relative to average, will be confined to the west.

Weeks 3-4:  

As we push into July, the upper pattern sets-up in a manner that will require us to keep a very close eye on storm potential.  With a northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to be mindful of the potential of storm clusters impacting the region- tracking northwest to southeast.  Through the balance of the period, the hottest weather should remain to our west, relative to normal.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/jma-weeklies-heat-relief-coming-and-an-active-pattern-as-we-get-into-july/