Updated 08.07.23 @ 7:45a
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Aug 07
Updated 08.07.23 @ 7:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/07/video-pattern-evolution-into-mid-august/
Aug 05
Updated 08.05.23 @ 10:20a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/05/multiple-rounds-of-strong-severe-storms-this-weekend-autumn-rambles/
Aug 04
Updated 08.04.23 @ 7:55a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/04/video-tracking-a-sunday-severe-weather-threat-mid-late-august-pattern-thoughts/
Aug 03
Updated 08.03.23 @ 7:07a
Heavy rain and localized flooding impacted far southwestern Indiana overnight and this morning. With that said, all will remain quiet on the home front today.
The quiet times will begin to change as we flip the page into the weekend. Scattered storms will fire up Friday afternoon and evening and this will set the tone for a more unsettled regime as we move through the upcoming 6-10 days as a whole (noted by image 2 below).
After dealing with scattered storms Friday afternoon, we anticipate a more widespread rain and storm complex to roll into central Indiana Saturday evening into Sunday morning.
This will likely be followed up with another round of scattered to numerous showers and storms Sunday evening into Monday morning.
The active times won’t stop there as additional heavy rain and storms will rumble across the Ohio Valley and central Indiana into the middle and latter part of next week.
This unsettled and wet theme is all part of the overall pattern expected to carry us through the bulk of the last month of meteorological summer. Certainly a far cry from the dry, hot Augusts of years past.
More later tonight or Friday morning around the long range pattern, including updated thoughts on meteorological fall.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/03/active-times-return/
Aug 02
Updated 08.02.23 @ 6:25a
For the 3rd consecutive morning, many central Indiana communities are starting the day in the 50s. – Not bad at all by late July or early August standards if you ask me.
We’ve already reviewed the favorable teleconnections through mid month and while we’ll continue keeping close eyes on the MJO (it’ll want to join the party eventually), through the next couple weeks, it doesn’t look like it’ll have much, if any, influence on the pattern.
Data the past couple of days has trended cooler and wetter through mid-month. After a quiet open to August (our neighbors across southwest Indiana won’t say the same), the pattern will take a renewed active turn late week.
You know the drill by now: this all has to do with the ‘mean’ ridge position, or hot dome.
Note how the upper air pattern evolves from Day 1 (below) to mid-month.
The bottom line over the next couple weeks is that we shouldn’t see any excessive heat (seasonal to slightly cooler than normal) and an increasingly wet time of things as the region will be in a favorable northwesterly flow aloft.
It sure appears that the 3rd and final month of meteorological summer will close on a rather busy note, but without much in the way of uncomfortable heat.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/02/evolving-wet-cooler-than-normal-august-pattern/
Aug 01
Updated 08.01.23 @ 7:40a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/01/video-seasonal-to-slightly-cooler-than-normal-1st-half-of-august/
Jul 31
Updated 07.31.23 @ 7:58a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/31/video-pleasant-open-to-the-work-week-rain-and-storm-chances-return-late-week/
Jul 30
Updated 07.30.23 @ 11:25a
I. We can already feel a difference in the nature of the airmass this morning, but there’s a much bigger push of dry air inbound tonight. By Monday morning, dew points across central Indiana will fall into the 40s and 50s- a far cry from the oppressive “jungle-like” dew points from last week. Talk about a breath of fresh air. The good news in this pleasant airmass will hold through the middle of the week.
II. While we can’t totally rule out a shower this afternoon, most of the period will remain rain-free between now and Wednesday. Look for plentiful sunshine through this period as well.
Rain and storm chances will return towards the latter part of the week. While we’re not expecting any sort of washout, it’ll be a good idea to have a Plan B in mind from Thursday through the weekend in the event a storm cluster threatens from time to time.
III. Over the next couple weeks, the primary pattern drivers continue to look like a combo of the EPO and PNA- both of which will, for the most part, be in favorable phases to deliver seasonal to slightly cooler than normal conditions across our neck of the woods. At times, it’s appeared like the MJO will start to amplify, but that hasn’t been the case and doesn’t appear to be a big player in our pattern through mid August, at least. Bottom line, our idea is that August features seasonal temperatures, as a whole, with slightly above normal rainfall throughout central Indiana. (For perspective, the average high at IND in August is 84.3° with an average low of 65°. On average, we pick up nearly 3.5″ of rain during any given August).
The most anomalous and long-lasting heat should continue to be featured across Plains and points west with coolest anomalies across the Northeast.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/30/sunday-morning-rambles-much-less-humid-start-to-the-week-updated-thoughts-on-the-august-pattern/
Jul 29
Updated 07.29.23 @ 10:25a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/29/major-improvements-on-the-way/
Jul 28
Updated 07.28.23 @ 8a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/28/heat-takes-a-back-seat-to-an-unseasonably-cool-open-to-august-strong-storms-in-between-the-transition/