Dec 09
Updated 12.09.23 @ 10:51a We’re tracking a narrow line of showers and embedded thunder this morning. This is in association with a cold front that will pass through central IN…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/09/video-evolving-active-pattern-into-mid-and-late-december/
Oct 26
Updated 10.26.23 @ 6:45a
The next couple days will be the last of temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s until next spring. The first of 2 cold fronts will settle into central Indiana tomorrow evening followed by a strong frontal passage Monday. If you rather go right to the punch line instead of reading through the rest of this post, trick or treaters will need the heavy cold gear this year.
A few showers will skirt northern counties later this evening but the lions share of the next 36 hours will be rain-free. A line of showers and even thunderstorms will be associated with Friday evening’s cold front.
A much more widespread, heavier rain will build into central Indiana through our Saturday afternoon. It’s this period, continuing into Sunday where the bulk of our widespread 1”+ rain will come. A smaller axis of heavier totals (2”+) likely sets up shop south of the city, itself.
After a “step down” process to cooler air Friday into Saturday, the bottom will really fall out Monday. This will set us up for a downright cold Halloween (lows in the upper 20s with highs in the lower 40s). Add in winds and the “feels like” will be in the 10s and 20s into the 1st day of November.
If that isn’t enough, trailing upper level energy will push into the area Halloween night and have enough moisture to generate snow showers late into Wednesday morning. A renewed push of gusty winds can also be expected during this time period.
Coldest mornings of this stretch will likely take place next Wednesday or Thursday with overnight lows into the middle to upper 20s.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/26/first-taste-of-winter-the-wild-swings-of-autumn/
Oct 21
Updated 10.21.23 @ 7:34a
The upcoming week will feature a pattern shift, albeit a transitional one, that will drive unseasonably warm temperatures north into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. This will be on the heels of the first widespread frost of the season Monday morning. Ah, Indian summer at its finest.
A couple of disturbances will try to make inroads into this ridge mid and late week, but will likely struggle in providing much in the way of precipitation or cooler air initially. As we push into the latter part of next week and the Halloween weekend, a larger storm system is anticipated to move east out of the Plains region. This storm will likely deliver the first widespread winter impacts (outside of the mountains of course) of the fall season.
Specifics will be fine tuned as we get closer, but we expect a widespread rain (perhaps a clap of thunder) here next weekend followed by sharply colder weather prior to Halloween, itself.
We’re left with a much different pattern to open November. This is the type regime that will likely lead to the first lake effect snow in the snow belt, drive the 1st widespread freeze into the Ohio Valley, and result in highs in the 40s in the wake of the frontal passage.
Farmers and those with ag interests, we’d suggest wrapping up harvest 23 efforts by mid next week if at all possible. Conditions will certainly become harsher and less favorable by next weekend. More to come…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/21/the-pending-halloween-pattern-transition-and-initial-taste-of-winter/
Oct 19
Updated 10.19.23 @ 7:17a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/19/video-damp-thursday-gives-way-to-a-gusty-saturday-a-lot-to-discuss-over-the-next-10-days/
Oct 17
Updated 10.17.23 @ 5a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/17/video-new-seasonal-guidance-ups-the-ante-for-upcoming-winter-unsettled-close-to-the-work-week/
Oct 16
Updated 10.16.23 @ 7:38a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/16/video-early-and-midweek-improvements-ahead-of-a-new-storm-system/
Oct 15
Updated 10.15.23 @ 7:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/15/video-throwing-it-on-repeat/
Oct 13
Updated 10.13.23 @ 7:25a
I’ve had the opportunity this week to spend time with family and loved ones in the gorgeous western NC and eastern TN mountains. Fall foliage is starting to pop above 2,000 feet, especially after the cooler air this week.
At any rate, thank you for your patience and flexibility this week as posts have been a bit off schedule. We’ll resume “normal programming” Saturday.
When we look ahead to this week, there are 2 storms of note. The easy and obvious first system will deliver a round of storms this evening. A few of these will have gusty winds and a few leftover “backlash” showers will continue through the weekend as the upper low swirls overhead. Once again, we’ll turn much cooler tonight and continue into the new week.
Rainfall totals of 0.25” to 0.75” will be common for central and southern Indiana with heavier amounts of 1” to 1.5” across the northern 1/3 of the state.
Our second system is much more complex and will come into the picture late week (next Friday/ Saturday time frame). Guidance agrees on the energy becoming cut off from the main steering flow but is far from etched in stone with the specifics at this distance. It’ll certainly be a topic of discussion in the days ahead.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/13/tracking-2-storms-in-the-week-ahead/
Oct 11
Updated 10.11.23 @ 7:42a
A cold front and associated area of low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley as we close the week. Briefly warmer air will surge north into the region Thursday and Friday with temperatures flirting with 80° both days.
Moisture levels will also increase as dew points creep up closer towards 60°.
A weakening area of rain and embedded storms will rumble into the state late Friday and Friday night. Widespread severe weather isn’t expected but the Storm Prediction Center outlines the far western portion of the state in a marginal risk, primarily for a wind threat. We still bracket 0.25” to 0.75” rain potential.
Speaking of wind, non-thunderstorm gusts towards 30 MPH can be expected Friday and Saturday.
With the cold core upper low hanging around, additional spotty showers, mixed with graupel, can be expected over the weekend into early next week.
The theme over the next couple weeks is for cooler than normal conditions to dominate overall.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/11/briefly-warmer-blustery-close-to-the-week-with-rain-and-a-few-storms/
Oct 10
Updated 10.10.23 @ 12:53p
I. A warm front will lift north through Indiana Wednesday. This will serve as a focal point for locally heavy rain across the northern tier of counties Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Most high resolution modeling keeps central Indiana out of the heavy rain axis but a passing shower is certainly possible.
II. A cold front and associated area of low pressure will rumble across the Ohio Valley Friday with more widespread rain (embedded thunder) impacting central Indiana Friday evening and Friday night.
III. A cold core upper low will drop southeast Sunday into Monday. With the cold air aloft and just enough daytime heating, showers (potentially mixed with graupel) will develop. Otherwise, anticipate a “raw” close to the weekend and open to the new work week.
IV. Our recent chilly turn will only be reinforced that much further behind the passage of Friday’s cold front. Most of next week is looking below to well below normal. Time to start thinking about stocking up that wood pile. Long Range charts show another big blast of the coldest air so far this season the following week…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/10/lunchtime-rambles-time-to-start-thinking-about-stocking-that-wood-pile/