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Category: T-storms
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/03/video-beautiful-open-to-the-new-week-stormy-finish/
Jun 02
Overnight Storms Serve As A Small “Speed Bump” To A Gorgeous Weekend…
The morning is starting off on a beautiful note- brilliant blue skies (aside from a little patchy fog for northwestern ‘burbs early on), lower humidity, and temperatures around 60°. Pleasant conditions will continue today with plentiful sunshine and highs topping out in the middle 80s.
A cold front will approach late tonight, passing through central Indiana Sunday morning. This will deliver scattered thunderstorms during the overnight and pre dawn hours Sunday.
Unfortunately, this won’t be a widespread soaking rain, but there will be a few neighborhoods that cash in on locally heavy downpours. Where thunderstorms track, a couple of 1″+ reports can be expected.
A pleasant air mass will arrive on the scene for the second half of the weekend and remain with us into early next week. With lower humidity in place, overnight lows will fall into the 50s early next week.
Dry conditions will remain as high pressure gains control before thunderstorm chances return by the middle of next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/02/overnight-storms-serve-as-a-small-speed-bump-to-a-gorgeous-weekend/
Jun 01
VIDEO: Analyzing Rainfall Totals; 1st Half Of June Look Ahead…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/01/video-analyzing-rainfall-totals-1st-half-of-june-look-ahead/
May 31
Steamy Thursday Ends Stormy…
The Storm Prediction Center has placed southwestern Indiana under a Slight risk of severe weather, with extreme southern Indiana now included in an Enhanced risk.
Upper level energy will push east this afternoon and combine with an unstable air mass, along with unseasonably hot and humid air (highs today will reach the lower 90s across the southern half of the state with dew points around 70°), resulting in explosive thunderstorm development this evening. Storms will rumble east during the nighttime hours before exiting off to the east and diminishing during the early morning hours.
We target the time frame of 6p to midnight for greatest storm coverage and the possibility of severe weather. While the greatest threat of severe is just south of the city, itself, I think all of central IN is in play for the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms tonight. In addition to locally heavy rain, stronger storms could pose a damaging straight line wind threat along with large hail.
A couple of storms may still fire Friday afternoon in the warm and humid air mass, but a boundary will pass Friday evening, allowing less humid air to arrive Saturday. On that note, even cooler and less humid air awaits early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/31/steamy-thursday-ends-stormy/
May 30
VIDEO: Alberto’s Remnants Pull North; Strong Storms Thursday…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/30/video-albertos-remnants-pull-north-strong-storms-thursday/
May 29
Light At The End Of The Tunnel From The Recent Dry Regime?
In our JMA Weekly recap from last week, we noted the model was transitioning towards a wetter pattern for early and mid June.
It’s encouraging to see the latest ensemble data from the American GFS and European (courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com) support this idea, as well.
In addition to a wetter pattern, we would also want to pay attention to the potential of a gusty storm complex or two riding southeast around the hot dome off to our southwest.
After an unusually dry May (- 3.44″ as of this post), Alberto’s remnant moisture will help us, at the very least, cut into the rainfall deficit tomorrow. Longer term, it sure is nice to see the medium range guidance in agreement on a wetter time of things. As we’re all aware, this is a crucial time to determine the overall long-standing summer pattern. Dry ground and early warmth can easily “feedback” on itself, and it’s easy to understand some of the concern, particularly AG-related over the past few weeks. With that said, it’s certainly not too late to try and at least ease some of the worry a bit.
When we look at the MJO, we note the amplitude and it’s forecast to swing through the wetter phases, at least locally, (4,5,6) through the month of June:
In closing, the JMA Weeklies led the charge in the idea of more active times returning in June, and the combination of GFS and European ensemble data suggests they had merit. With the added bonus of having the MJO on our side, it’ll be hard to avoid a change of the guard towards an overall wetter pattern in the weeks ahead. Perhaps Alberto’s remnant moisture is only the beginning…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/29/light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel-from-the-recent-dry-regime/
May 26
VIDEO: Couple Storms Around Today; Watching Alberto’s Remnants Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/26/video-couple-storms-around-today-watching-albertos-remnants-next-week/
May 25
VIDEO: Heat Builds For The Indy 500 & Memorial Day Weekend; What About Rain Chances?
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/25/video-heat-builds-for-the-indy-500-what-about-rain-chances/
May 24
Looking Over The New JMA Weeklies…
The JMA Weeklies update every Thursday morning and this gives us another tool to look at when developing the forecast over the upcoming 3-4 weeks. Here are some highlights from the most recent update:
Week 1
The big story in Week 1 is the surge of tropical moisture with the area of disturbed weather in the GOM (Gulf of Mexico). Unfortunately, it’s not until possibly Week 2 that remnant tropical moisture may interact with an approaching cold front to provide better rain chances here. The big story for the balance of the upcoming Week 1 period, locally, will be the heat. An unseasonably warm stretch will continue through the Memorial Day weekend and on into the middle of next week.
Week 2
The model shows a bit of a transition in the pattern with the core of the heat shifting west during the Week 2 period. With this, there are some hints that the pattern will turn increasingly wet and stormy, locally, including a backing off of the extreme 90° heat.
Weeks 3-4
An intriguing “ring of fire” pattern develops in the Weeks 3-4 time frame. If correct, this would result in a more active pattern across the Mid West with a busy northwest flow pattern emerging. Storm complexes are notorious for tracking in a northwest to southeast fashion around the hot dome. Sure enough, the model is going with a wetter than normal pattern here. It’s hard to disagree with that given the look at 500mb.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/24/looking-over-the-new-jma-weeklies/
May 22
The Heat (And Humidity) Is On This Indy 500; Memorial Day Weekend…
As we grow closer to the big Indy 500 and Memorial Day weekend, forecast guidance continues to back away from what at one point looked like a rather unsettled weekend. Instead, it appears as if heat and humidity will grab the headlines. While we can’t rule out an isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm (best chances of that coming Sunday and Monday), most will remain rain and storm free this weekend. Even if you’re one of the “lucky ones” to get under a storm, it’ll pass quickly and sunshine will return.
While “tropical mischief” approaches the central Gulf Coast this weekend, an upper level ridge will dominate our weather. This supports the drier trend the models are now going to and also will help boost temperatures. We forecast highs at or around the 90° mark Saturday through Memorial Day- well above the average high of 78°.
The other big story, especially for those planning to attend the race, will be increasing humidity over the weekend. Forecast dew points will approach and exceed the 70° mark Sunday afternoon, providing a very tropical feel to the air.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/22/the-heat-and-humidity-is-on-this-indy-500-memorial-day-weekend/