Category: T-storms

Feb 02

Friday Morning Notes On The Pattern Ahead…

Updated 02.02.24 @ 7:37a

We don’t see any reason to deviate from the longstanding ideas on the overall pattern evolution ahead. February will continue to provide an unseasonably mild and quiet stretch through the first 1/3 of the month ahead of a pattern transition back to colder around or just after 2/10.

2/2 – 2/8

2/9 – 2/16

Note the ridge begins to break down across the East during the Week 2 period above. This is the transition to colder times, locally, as heights begin to build across western Canada and the northeastern Pacific. By mid-month, we’re talking about an entirely different pattern as a trough continues to deepen across the East along with unseasonably cold air become more entrenched.

In the shorter term period, not only are we talking about unseasonably warm temperatures (it’ll push 60°+ here late next week) but also incredibly quiet weather. In fact, we aren’t looking at another opportunity for measurable precipitation until next Thursday.

A warm front and trailing cold front will return a round of unsettled weather (rain and even thunderstorm potential) here as we get set to close the work week next week. More on expected rain coverage and amounts as we get into the weekend and next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-morning-notes-on-the-pattern-ahead/

Dec 09

VIDEO: Evolving Active Pattern Into Mid And Late December…

Updated 12.09.23 @ 10:51a We’re tracking a narrow line of showers and embedded thunder this morning. This is in association with a cold front that will pass through central IN…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-evolving-active-pattern-into-mid-and-late-december/

Oct 26

First “Taste” Of Winter; The Wild Swings Of Autumn…

Updated 10.26.23 @ 6:45a

The next couple days will be the last of temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s until next spring. The first of 2 cold fronts will settle into central Indiana tomorrow evening followed by a strong frontal passage Monday. If you rather go right to the punch line instead of reading through the rest of this post, trick or treaters will need the heavy cold gear this year.

A few showers will skirt northern counties later this evening but the lions share of the next 36 hours will be rain-free. A line of showers and even thunderstorms will be associated with Friday evening’s cold front.

A much more widespread, heavier rain will build into central Indiana through our Saturday afternoon. It’s this period, continuing into Sunday where the bulk of our widespread 1”+ rain will come. A smaller axis of heavier totals (2”+) likely sets up shop south of the city, itself.

After a “step down” process to cooler air Friday into Saturday, the bottom will really fall out Monday. This will set us up for a downright cold Halloween (lows in the upper 20s with highs in the lower 40s). Add in winds and the “feels like” will be in the 10s and 20s into the 1st day of November.

If that isn’t enough, trailing upper level energy will push into the area Halloween night and have enough moisture to generate snow showers late into Wednesday morning. A renewed push of gusty winds can also be expected during this time period.

Coldest mornings of this stretch will likely take place next Wednesday or Thursday with overnight lows into the middle to upper 20s.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/first-taste-of-winter-the-wild-swings-of-autumn/

Oct 21

The Pending Halloween Pattern Transition And Initial Taste Of Winter…

Updated 10.21.23 @ 7:34a

The upcoming week will feature a pattern shift, albeit a transitional one, that will drive unseasonably warm temperatures north into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. This will be on the heels of the first widespread frost of the season Monday morning. Ah, Indian summer at its finest.

A couple of disturbances will try to make inroads into this ridge mid and late week, but will likely struggle in providing much in the way of precipitation or cooler air initially. As we push into the latter part of next week and the Halloween weekend, a larger storm system is anticipated to move east out of the Plains region. This storm will likely deliver the first widespread winter impacts (outside of the mountains of course) of the fall season.

Specifics will be fine tuned as we get closer, but we expect a widespread rain (perhaps a clap of thunder) here next weekend followed by sharply colder weather prior to Halloween, itself.

We’re left with a much different pattern to open November. This is the type regime that will likely lead to the first lake effect snow in the snow belt, drive the 1st widespread freeze into the Ohio Valley, and result in highs in the 40s in the wake of the frontal passage.

Farmers and those with ag interests, we’d suggest wrapping up harvest 23 efforts by mid next week if at all possible. Conditions will certainly become harsher and less favorable by next weekend. More to come…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/the-pending-halloween-pattern-transition-and-initial-taste-of-winter/

Oct 19

VIDEO: Damp Thursday Gives Way To A Gusty Saturday; A Lot To Discuss Over The Next 10 Days…

Updated 10.19.23 @ 7:17a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-damp-thursday-gives-way-to-a-gusty-saturday-a-lot-to-discuss-over-the-next-10-days/