The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:
- Heat relief on the way through Week 1
- Core of heat, relative to normal, backs west through the period
- Active NW flow regime to open July
Week 1:
The JMA Weeklies really try to emphasize the “transient” nature of the pattern and associated dry, hot weather some folks were becoming concerned about only a couple of days ago. Week 1 is highlighted by a much wetter regime through the Ohio Valley and most of the East. As the ridge pulls back west, a cooler regime returns to our region, while the Southwest bakes with anomalously hot weather.
Week 2:
The pattern favors wetter than normal conditions across the upper Mid West, including Great Lakes. The mean upper ridge is forecast to remain out west. Fittingly, the warmest temperatures, relative to average, will be confined to the west.
Weeks 3-4:
As we push into July, the upper pattern sets-up in a manner that will require us to keep a very close eye on storm potential. With a northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to be mindful of the potential of storm clusters impacting the region- tracking northwest to southeast. Through the balance of the period, the hottest weather should remain to our west, relative to normal.
Similar to Tuesday, any storms that develop will be capable of locally heavy rain and flash flooding. While storms should move in a quicker fashion today, precipitable water values (PWATs) remain downright tropical and will exceed 2″ later this afternoon.
Overall storm coverage should become more widespread as we push into the afternoon and evening hours. Here’s what the radar may look like during the 4p, 6p, and 10p time frames:
From a severe perspective, the biggest concern is damaging straight line winds with stronger storms. Remain weather-aware later today, friends!
Highlights:
Best overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms should come in (3) waves over the upcoming 10-day period:
As I type this outside on the back porch this evening, I hear the sounds of sprinklers in full-force through the ‘hood. Thankfully, Mother Nature will help save on the water bill later this week. Longer-term, you’ll hear us use the word “transient” many times this summer when discussing the overall weather pattern. Thankfully that tends to result in a fairly busy time of things. Before you know it, college football season will be back (83 days until my beloved Auburn Tigers kick-off), those wetter autumn storms will return, and thoughts will begin to shift to winter (they may have already started here :-))- not that we’re trying to rush summer away or anything…