Category Archives: Summer

Rain Returns; Late Week “Backdoor” Cold Front…

Highlights:

  • Rain and storm chances increase
  • Late week cold front
  • Gearing up for a bigger blast of fall air

Dry Close To The Weekend…First and foremost, our thoughts and prayers are with Texas as one of the worst flood events in our country’s history is unfolding this morning.  With days of heavy rain ahead, an additonal 20″-30″ will fall on eastern Texas.  Just horrific.

Here on the home front, we’ll wrap up the weekend on a dry note, but upper level energy will drift overhead late tonight and help generate scattered showers and thunderstorms as early as the predawn hours Monday.  We’ll maintain a bit of an unsettled regime into Tuesday before dry conditions return Wednesday.

A backdoor cold front will push through central Indiana Thursday and a broken line of showers and thunderstorms may accompany this frontal passage.  A northeasterly flow will usher in an unseasonably cool, early fall-like, close to the work week.

Looking ahead, an even stronger cold front has it’s eyes set on the region late next weekend or early the following week.  Strong thunderstorm potential is present with this storm system followed by the coolest air since last spring…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall:  0.50″ – 1.00″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Flooding, Forecast, Harvey, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Chances Of Needed Rain Increasing For Central Indiana…

August, month-to-date, is running bone-dry.  Officially, IND has only accumulated 0.18″ of rain, but that may be changing as early as this afternoon and evening.

We note high resolution, short-term data is becoming more aggressive with the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  Initially, storms will impact w-central parts of the state before encompassing more of central Indiana.  The following are images of what the local radar may look like at 4p, 6p, and 8p.

With leftover boundaries from early morning storms across northern parts of the state (likely will serve as a “trigger” for PM storm development), combined with a hot and muggy airmass, confidence is increasing on numerous showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana this afternoon and evening.  Widespread heavy rain isn’t expected this afternoon, but localized hefty downpours are a good bet with precipitable water values (PWATs) approaching 2″ this afternoon.

Unsettled times remain Tuesday before a much cooler regime looms for the second half of the week…

No Comments Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Hot, Humid Weather Gives Way To Much Cooler Times…

Highlights:

  • Hot and humid open to the week
  • Scattered early week storms
  • Much cooler and less humid times loom

Time To Sweat…A hot and increasingly humid airmass will be with us as we open a new week.  While most of the upcoming 24-48 hours will remain rain-free, we will mention chances of an isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm Monday.  Most will remain free of rain and storms, but those lucky folks who do find themselves under a storm Monday can expect to pick up a quick 1″ of rain.  Better overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms will develop late Monday night into Tuesday.

Typically, a pattern change such as what we’ll undergo this week (summer-like to early fall-like) would yield widespread showers and thunderstorms.  However, a look at short-term, higher resolution data isn’t particularly “excited” about widespread significant rainfall across central Indiana.  We expect a weakening complex of thunderstorms off to our northwest to drift southeast Monday night.  Depending on how quickly this complex weakens will determine rainfall amounts, locally.  Additionally, it’s very possible this weakening storm complex will serve to limit new thunderstorm development Tuesday as the cold front moves closer.  We do note high resolution data places emphasis on northern and southern parts of the state for heaviest rains and it’s tough to disagree with that idea given what we’re looking at right now.  Stay tuned.

Regardless of the rain and storm situation, locally, we’ll all turn significantly cooler by midweek.  In fact, temperatures will grow cool enough to feel like mid-September.  Dry conditions will carry us into next weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall:  0.25″ – 0.75″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Thursday Morning Weather Notebook: Changes Brewing To Close August…

I.  A cold front will move across the state this evening.  Ahead of the front, a warm and moist air mass will remain in place and the frontal boundary will serve as a “trigger” to ignite scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and evening.  While widespread, uniform rains aren’t anticipated, a couple of strong storms and localized downpours will develop ahead of the front.

Scattered t-storms will impact the state today.
Eastern IN is included in a Slight Risk of severe weather this afternoon.

II.  After a drier close to the work week (less humid, as well), an upper level disturbance will race across the Ohio Valley Saturday.  This will provide enough lift to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region, but all day rains won’t occur.

III.  Ridging will return early next week and, though brief, a shot of late-summer heat will eject northeast across the Mid West and Ohio Valley.  Sunday through Tuesday will feature temperatures that top out in the upper 80s to around 90°.

IV.  A cold front will drop in by the middle of next week.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal boundary, but the bigger story will be a dramatic change to a much cooler regime as we get set to put a wrap on the month of August.  In fact, temperatures may grow cool enough to allow some 40s to develop across central and northern parts of the state at night.  Meteorological summer sure looks like it’ll end with more of a fall-like feel…

No Comments Autumn, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Highlights, Weather Rambles