The second half of the weekend will feature beautiful weather, albeit breezy conditions at times. Strong southwesterly winds will gust upwards of 40 MPH this afternoon, but also aid in pushing mid to upper 70s northward into central Indiana. Despite the strong winds, we still recommend finding a way to get outside and enjoy this weather!
Highs will run close to 15° above average this afternoon.
Stormy weather returns Monday as a frontal boundary slips into the state. A couple storms may become strong or severe Monday afternoon and the Storm Prediction Center highlights northwestern portions of the state for a Slight Risk. Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with any severe storm that may develop.
High pressure returns for midweek and supplies a dry regime, along with increasing sunshine and temperatures that will run slightly above average (mid-40s at night and 65°-70° during the day).
There are questions once to the end of the period as the GFS and European handle the evolution of our late-week storm differently. The GFS brings energy out into the Ohio Valley and results in unsettled weather returning Friday, continuing into Easter weekend, while the European is slower. We’ll keep an eye on things over the next few days and update accordingly. The GFS suggests some localized heavier downpours would be possible in the Friday-Sunday period as the majority of the 7-day precipitation snapshot below falls within the timeframe.
Highlights:
Highlights:
2.) We’ll get a breather on Tuesday, but our next storm system will move in quickly and begin impacting central Indiana during the day Wednesday. A couple strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and will require our attention over the next day, or so. We’ll have more details with our updated 7-day later today.
3.) We’ll get into the colder side of the storm to close the work week and thoughts will shift from storms to snow. Wind-whipped snow showers will be a good bet in the unseasonably cold air Thursday into Friday morning.
4.) Timing will once again be our friend as we push into the weekend. Weak high pressure will arrive on the scene and help ensure dry conditions. After a cold start Saturday, a moderating trend will develop.
Precipitation is running above normal, locally, to the tune of nearly 1″ month-to-date. Heaviest rains have fallen across southeastern Indiana over the past (30) days.
A look at precipitation anomalies across the mid west, month-to-date:
As we progress through the upcoming (10) days, a transient weather pattern will persist. This will keep forecasters busy, but it should also be stressed it’s not all a “doom and gloom” type pattern, either. There will be plenty of dry time over the upcoming period, including drier conditions building in tomorrow (Tuesday) into a good chunk of Wednesday.
However, timing is our friend this go around as upper ridging develops over the upcoming weekend. Not only will we dry out, but we’ll also enjoy increasing sunshine as the weekend progresses.
That said, looking further down the pipe line, another (potentially more significant) storm system looms during the 8-10 day period. This would fall in the April 3rd-4th time frame. From this distance, models are bullish on hefty rainfall totals with this storm system and we’ll keep a close eye on things as time draws closer.
Speaking of April, our overall thoughts for the fourth month of the year (where does time go?) would imply a warmer than average month and active (wetter than average). Relative to average, we feel we still may have some chill to traverse early month, but there’s also some indication we could bust into an early summer-like feel mid and late month. With the mean trough position west and ridging east, we’ll have to also be mindful for the potential of an active severe weather month- especially mid and late month. Overall, the CanSIPS idea below is one we would agree with from a mean 500mb perspective.