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Category: Spring Tease
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-morning-all-access-video-pattern-turns-more-active-next-week/
Mar 21
More On The Late March-Early April Pattern And Reviewing The NEW JMA Weeklies…
As we look ahead, a persistent western Canada/ Alaska ridge continues to show up on the medium to long range data. The downstream implications are for cooler than normal temperatures, overall, across the eastern and central portions of the country into early April.
Given the time of the year (and pattern), cool won’t rule the entire period. It’s just that the cold will “out do” the transient warmth in between storm systems over the next couple of weeks.
When we look at the teleconnections (combo of negative EPO and neutral to slightly positive PNA is ruling the day for now), they support the lingering chill into early-April.
However, as we turn the page from early-April to mid-April, the idea here is that an eastern ridge will begin to expand west with more “umph” and eventually lead to warmth overwhelming the pattern. We aren’t budging from the original idea of a warmer than normal April by month’s end. It sure appears as if the NEW JMA Weeklies are catching onto this idea.
From a precipitation perspective, the majority of medium and long range model data does show a return of wetter times (relative to normal) as we move into April, including an active storm track. The beginning of this overall shift in the pattern back towards wetter than normal conditions will begin early next week.
We’ll recap our latest short-term thinking, including an update on the NEW European Weeklies that will arrive this evening later tonight in a video update.
In the meantime, make it a fantastic Thursday- and happy tip off to March Madness!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-on-the-late-march-early-april-pattern-and-reviewing-the-new-jma-weeklies/
Mar 16
Now We’re Talking…
Meteorological Spring has gotten off to a cold start- to the tune of nearly 5 degrees below average at IND through 3/15.
Note the brutal cold across the Northern Plains and Rockies.
The upcoming week will feature a positive PNA pattern and associated cooler than average theme to open, before beginning to moderate mid-to-late in the work week.
That said, time is limited on the chilly pattern and an overall significant shift to more of a sustained spring-like pattern awaits to close March and as we head into April.
Note the warmth that follows:
This will result in many more days in the 60s and 70s as we put a wrap on March and open April.
While weak systems will continue to impact the area (tomorrow, Wednesday, and again next Sunday), the deeper, moisture-laden storms will take a “backseat” during the fast-moving northwest flow. That begins to change during the last few days of the month and on into April. The latest ensemble guidance sees the return of a more active pattern, likely complete with heavier rain events and the potential of stronger storms.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/now-were-talking-4/
Mar 09
VIDEO: Storms Rumble In This Afternoon; Looking Ahead To The Remainder Of March…
A wet and stormy time of things will develop this afternoon, followed by increasingly gusty winds tonight and early Sunday. Winds will gust in excess of 50 MPH at times…
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Mar 06
Running the Gamut; Looking Ahead to April…
We’ll apologize in advance for the long-winded post tonight, but there’s a lot to cover. Not only do we have the accumulating snow on deck, a couple of strong storm systems this weekend into the middle of next week, but the long range pattern is set to turn cold (again) after a mid-month respite. We also want to look ahead to our early thoughts towards April…
Let’s take things one at a time:
Thursday-Friday Snow
While we don’t have major changes to our ongoing snowfall forecast, we have “sagged” the swath of 1″ to 3″ snow south just a hair given the latest computer model guidance. Steadiest snow should fall Thursday night into the predawn hours Friday. We’d anticipate a slick Friday morning commute through the heart of central Indiana.
Snow should exit off to the southeast around, or just before, lunchtime Friday. As always, your ground-truth reports are welcome (feel free to send to us on Twitter or via e-mail).
Warmer Side Of Things
The ‘mean’ trough position will shift to the west (temporarily) and lead to an overall milder time of things for the mid-month stretch. Unfortunately, the milder air will come with a wetter pattern.
This milder, wetter pattern will be highlighted by (2) storms:
I. Saturday, 3/10
II. Tuesday-Wednesday, 3/12-3/13
Both storm systems will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours and embedded thunder. Greatest chances of severe will remain south of central IN with this weekend’s storm, but may be further north next week. We’ll keep a close eye on things and issue Client Briefs if need be as we get closer.
A combination of the GFS and European computer models print-out rainfall totals between 1″ and 2″ over the upcoming 10-days and this seems reasonable given the fact both storm systems will be able to tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture.
From a temperature perspective, the brutal cold will come to an end behind our late week snowmaker. While “transient” chill will follow both of the upcoming storm systems, we’re heading into a much milder pattern, overall, through the mid-March stretch. Mildest air will come directly in front of the storm systems, highlighted by a couple of 60 deg. + days the middle of next week.
Positive PNA takes over
Unfortunately (for lovers of spring), the mid-month warm-up will be only a “tease” as we’re set to trend cooler, relative to normal, for the last 10 days of the month. The reason? A developing positive PNA.
To no surprise, we see the cooler pattern returning on the computer models:
Not only will we turn colder to close the month, but Thursday likely won’t be our last accumulating snow of the season…
Looking Towards April
Despite the late-March “set back” to a chilly time of things, we continue to think a more sustained “stick and hold” spring pattern looms around the corner. In fact, we agree with the latest CFSv2 delivering a warmer than normal pattern for April, as a whole, to the eastern portion of the country.
Note that as we go, the model is getting warmer for April with each passing day. As things stand now, we think the trough will pull back to the west with a more sustained ridge in place across the eastern portion of the country in April. With this, a wetter than average regime likely awaits, including an uptick in severe chances further north into the region.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/running-the-gamut-looking-ahead-to-april/