Highlights:
- Dense morning fog
- Tuesday showers
- Severe potential Friday
- Much colder this weekend
Two Seasons This Week…We’re starting the work week with dense fog across central Indiana. This will eventually burn off to a variably cloudy sky by afternoon, along with continued unseasonably warm temperatures.
A weak weather system will press through the state Tuesday and this will help lead to a period of showers Tuesday morning into the early afternoon hours. This won’t be a big event (most neighborhoods should accumulate between 0.10″-0.25″ of rain), but plan to pack the rain gear as you leave the house Tuesday morning.
A much stronger storm system will impact the region Thursday into Friday. As strong low pressure passes by to our northwest it’ll help pull anomalously warm, moist air northward Friday. Strong to severe thunderstorms may occur along the strong cold front that will pass late Friday. While we still have time to “fine tune” details on timing, early thinking would place greatest emphasis on large hail and damaging wind potential. Stay tuned.
Much colder air will hit with authority Friday night and set-up a wintry weekend. The spring-like feel of this past weekend will be all but a distant memory and flurries may fly Saturday morning in the colder, blustery air.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: Trace
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Despite the lack of sunshine this morning, temperatures continue to run much milder than average. We’re currently running nearly 20° above where we should be at the 9a hour.
A quiet start to the work week is ahead as high pressure dominates early on. That said, a weak storm system will scoot through the state Monday night and Tuesday morning and this will help offer up the chance of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder.
The next (more significant) storm system will pose a severe weather risk to close the week. We continue to keep a close eye on Friday and the Storm Prediction Center is as well, with western IL, IN, and western KY in their Day 6 Outlook. It’s still early, but the primary focus with the severe potential this storm may pose will be large hail and damaging straight line winds. Stay tuned as we continue to analyze the latest data.
We’ll turn sharply colder Friday night and Saturday. Though it’ll feel much colder, we’ll really only “chill” to seasonal levels, including a gusty northwesterly breeze Saturday.
Longer-term, we’re rumbling into a much more active weather pattern through the mid range period. As the mean trough sets-up position in the west, the ridge will flex it’s muscle across the east yet again during early portions of Week 2. This will set the stage for a repeat of what we deal with Friday and, accordingly, we’ll have to monitor early next week for portions of severe weather yet again.
Highlights:
Highlights:
The second week of the month warmed significantly and continues, overall, for the next week.
The mid-January warmth is attributed to a roaring PAC jet which is currently helping flood the country with temperatures much more like spring than the dead of winter. We continue to forecast 60+ this weekend across central IN.
This Weekend:
Next Thursday:
Next Weekend:
The pattern begins in the short-term with a look that will power anomalous warmth through the weekend, along with renewed rain chances Thursday night into Friday (another 1″+ for most), but begins to shift next week towards the colder look. The 2nd (weekend) storm system will be significant and poses a severe risk to the southeast region. Modeling has backed away on the heavy rain threat Sunday, but showers will be around early next week along with very windy conditions (40+ MPH gusts). Blocking is forcing the low south. By the time we get to next weekend, the pattern has done a 180 and in a position to drill unseasonably cold air back into the central and eastern portions of the country.
