Category: snow

Feb 04

Mild Week Ahead; More Prolonged Cold Pattern On The Table?

Updated 02.04.24 @ 8:55a

An unseasonably mild and quiet week is on tap. We aren’t forecasting rain to return into the picture until late week and the upcoming Super Bowl weekend. Highs will likely flirt with, if not exceed, the 60° mark Friday ahead of a frontal passage.

An unseasonably mild week is on tap.
Highs will flirt with, if not surpass, the 60° mark Friday.

After Friday’s FROPA, we’ll watch the trailing, more significant piece of energy impact the Ohio Valley next weekend. Obviously, it’s far too early to determine if we’re talking about more rain and/ or snow, but the initial hunch here is that this should be primarily a liquid event, despite the snowy solution on the overnight European model. We’ll watch carefully in the coming days.

The more active pattern late week and over the weekend is a signal that the pattern is changing. Once again, we believe that we’re heading into more of a prolonged version of what we dealt with in January, thought the jury is still out on the extreme solutions on the table with respect to just how cold (should we get into Phase 8 of the MJO then look out). As it is, the teleconnection suite aligning in a manner that they are is reason enough to be fired up on an all-out return of winter for mid-February. The forecasted strongly negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) provides us with a greater than normal confidence level that this cold pattern will have staying power not only through the remainder of the month, but into the 1st half of March (at least).

Latest long range modeling highlights the prolonged nature of the cold pattern:

Temperature anomalies Feb. 17 – Mar. 20

Make it a great Sunday, friends!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/mild-week-ahead-more-prolonged-cold-pattern-on-the-table/

Jan 30

VIDEO: Weak Clipper Today; Unusually Quiet Stretch Of Weather Ahead…

Updated 01.30.24 @ 7:16a A weak clipper will deliver mixed showers this morning and a round of light snow showers this evening. Totals with both rounds of precipitation will be…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-weak-clipper-today-unusually-quiet-stretch-of-weather-ahead/

Jan 29

VIDEO: Tuesday Clipper Followed By An Extended Stretch Of Quiet Conditions…

Updated 01.29.24 @ 5:59a We’ll close January and open February with an extended stretch of unseasonably quiet (and mild) conditions. The only exception? A weak clipper that will offer up…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-tuesday-clipper-followed-by-an-extended-stretch-of-quiet-conditions/

Jan 28

A Quieter Pattern To Close January; Open February…

Updated 01.28.24 @ 7:07a

The narrow but more organized band of locally moderate-heavy precipitation failed to materialize overnight. The result is a busted snowfall forecast. Sure some are dealing with wet snow this morning, but the type of precipitation rates weren’t achieved to cool the entire column of air enough to allow the accumulating snow axis of 1”-2” to materialize.

Regardless of what type of precipitation you’re seeing this morning, this will all pull out of the state around lunchtime. Western portions of Indiana will dry out much sooner.

We’ll be left with blustery conditions today, including north, northwest winds that will reach speeds north of 30 MPH at times.

Expected wind gusts of 30+ MPH through the afternoon

With all of this said, the great news is that the balance of the upcoming week (into next weekend) will be significantly quieter around these parts when compared to this past week. We’ll watch a clipper system that will likely deliver a cold rain and/ or a wintry mix Tuesday morning into the afternoon but this shouldn’t be a big deal across central Indiana.

That’s all she wrote on the precipitation front heading into next weekend. Heights will build over Hudson Bay (Hudson Bay block) this week and force a more active pattern to our south late week. While we’ll have to continue monitoring the potential of interesting times to our south (lower Ohio Valley, TN Valley and Deep South) going into Friday and the weekend, this upper air pattern should keep our immediate weather much quieter, aside from a “back door” cold front that will pass through here dry. We will certainly notice a much colder time of things developing during this period, along with gusty winds at times.


Looking Ahead: The overall pattern should feature a milder than normal regime (as a whole), along with drier than average conditions to close January and open February.

Week 1

Jan 28-Feb 3

Week 2

Feb 4-10

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-quieter-pattern-to-close-january-open-february/

Jan 27

Stripe Of Accumulating Wet Snow Falls Tonight; Blustery Sunday To Follow…

Updated 01.27.24 @ 1:46p

An area of low pressure continues to organize in northeastern MS this afternoon and will move northeast into the lower Ohio Valley before transferring energy off to a secondary (and eventually “primary”) low that will take control Sunday off the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast.

Rain will lift north into central Indiana through the late afternoon and evening, falling moderately at times tonight. As just enough cold air pours into the backside of the low, rain will transition to a wet snow after midnight. We note high resolution guidance is also becoming more “excited” about the potential of a narrow deformation band of precipitation that may setup shop across portions of central Indiana into northeastern parts of the state Sunday morning. If this does, indeed, take place, a wet “thump” of snow to the tune of 1″ to 2″ can be expected by 9a Sunday. That said, even hours away from this event, “bust potential” is still much higher than normal. Should we not realize the narrow band of heavier precipitation rates, it’ll be difficult if not impossible to get the column to cool enough to generate a band of accumulating snow.

All in all, still a far cry from anything significant, but this could surprise a few folks Sunday morning all the same. Most, if not all of this wet snow will be confined to grassy and elevated surfaces, but there could also be a few slick spots early Sunday morning during periods of heavier snowfall rates.

Speaking of Sunday, we turn quite blustery with northwesterly winds gusting upwards of 30+ MPH and highs in the middle 30s. Dry conditions will return after the early morning snow departs.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/stripe-of-accumulating-wet-snow-falls-tonight-blustery-sunday-to-follow/