Category: snow

Oct 29

Wintry Feel For Halloween…

Wed.

Thr.

Halloween

Sat.

Sun.

Mon.

Tue.

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41/ 54

38/ 53

32/ 46

28/ 41

27/ 48

40/ 57

45/ 49 

Mid Week Sunshine…Though our northern counties will deal with periods of cloudiness into the afternoon, most of the region will enjoy lots of sunshine and cool, crisp temperatures (below normal levels).  Most neighborhoods will see frost tonight with many dipping into the middle 30s.

After a sunny start Thursday, skies will cloud up and a couple sprinkles will be possible during the afternoon hours.  Temperatures will remain cool.

Wintry Feel; Light Snow For Halloween…A secondary push of early season arctic air will invade for Halloween, including trick-or-treat, itself.  After an early high in the middle 40s, temperatures will fall through the day and developing light rain will begin to mix with and transition to light snow Friday evening.  Though we’re not forecasting widespread accumulating snow, it wouldn’t surprise us to see a few reports of a dusting to “coating” type accumulation reports atop cars and roof tops.  Needless to say, with falling temperatures, rain to snow, and gusty winds, plan to dress warm while out and about Friday evening.  Wind chill values will fall into the 20s throughout Friday evening.

Weekend Hard Freeze…Back-to-back hard, killing freezes can be anticipated Saturday and Sunday mornings.  Though we’ll introduce weekend sunshine into the forecast, it won’t help the temperature department all that much as highs remain 15-20 degrees below average.

Early Week Storm System…Our next weather maker will arrive Tuesday and produce a rather rainy, chilly day.  Early indications suggest light to moderate rainfall totals Tuesday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 0.75″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting

Jason Burton sent in this awesome Union City sunset shot from Monday evening.  Thank you, Jason!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wintry-feel-for-halloween/

Oct 28

Tuesday Evening Video Update

Quick Tuesday evening video update to discuss the colder times ahead…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-evening-video-update-2/

Oct 28

Early Rain Then Cooler…

Latest surface analysis shows a cold front just west of the state this morning and this front will push west to east across the state through the morning hours. Forecast…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/early-rain-then-cooler/

Oct 25

The Ups And Downs Of Autumn…

It simply doesn’t get much better than this!  Wall-to-wall sunshine and temperatures in the lower to middle 70s across central Indiana this afternoon…  If you aren’t outside now, we are making it mandatory to get outside upon reading this!  🙂  Enjoy, as the ups and downs of autumn will send us in an opposite direction late in the upcoming week.

Forecast models are coming into better agreement on the evolution of things heading into next weekend.  While there are still a couple of important differences between the GFS and European, we’re growing increasingly confident on a much colder feel next weekend.

Note the latest GFS operational run stacked atop individual ensemble members.  Needless to say, there’s ensemble support and leads to a higher confidence forecast in the mid range of a deep trough carving itself out across the Mid West and East.  Unseasonably cold air would be associated with this.

GFS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile, the European model is more extreme, suggesting a cut off feature develops across the southeast before helping spawn a Nor Easter and leading to high ground accumulating snows from the southern Appalachians northeast along the spine of the mountains.

Again, there’s ensemble support (left) to go with the operational run (right).

EC1

EC2

Whether or not we get some sort of cut off low pressure system to really dig in and help generate high ground snow is up for debate and will be the focal point for many for the upcoming week.

Back here on the home front we’re becoming increasingly confident on the first push of wintry type air here next weekend and timing will have to be fine tuned as we move forward, including the all-important Halloween forecast.  The type air mass moving in will most likely put an end to the growing season across these parts as it’s likely capable of producing multiple below freezing nights.

Much more in the days ahead!  In the meantime, enjoy what we have in front of us now!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/the-ups-and-downs-of-autumn/

Oct 06

Weekly Outlook: Active And Cool!

Another active period of weather is in store for the region. (After an extended stretch of pleasant conditions from late September into the opening of October, I guess we shouldn’t complain too much).

Dry days will be at a premium over the course of the upcoming 7-days.  The final in a series of disturbances in the fast northwest flow will blow through the region Tuesday.  This will offer up a threat of scattered showers and a possible rumble of thunder through the daytime hours. Latest forecast radar data suggests showers and embedded thunder will be ongoing Tuesday morning.

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After a dry day Wednesday (filled with lots of sunshine), we anticipate clouds and rain to quickly return as early as Thursday.  Forecast models handle the evolution of things differently at this juncture. For now, we’ll side with a blend of the GFS and Euro and serve up best rain chances late Thursday into Friday, followed by less concentration of rain Saturday, coupled with cool north winds.

gfs_slp_precip_conus_21

Saturday is a tough call at this point.  The cold front will be south of our area and chilly Canadian high pressure will be building in, but we may keep considerable cloudiness and pesky showers around (similar to last Saturday?). Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune.

Note the cooler than normal air settling in over the weekend.

gfs_t2m_anom_conus_21

7-day rainfall numbers vary greatly from model to model.  Upcoming weekly rainfall totals range from as little as 1″ to as much as 2″.  The Canadian model is the most aggressive, suggesting over 2″ on a widespread basis.

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Just beyond this time next week we may be looking at an even more significant storm system, but we still have time to fine tune things as we move forward.

Despite the dry weather late September through October’s open, the past 30 days have featured beneficial to excessive Corn Belt rainfall…

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Year-to-date has featured a wet eastern region.  Also note the dry pattern across the southwest (some places under 1″ YTD)!  Officially, we’re just slightly wetter than normal at IND, year-to-date (+0.53″).

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Thinking longer term towards the darker, colder, and snowier months ahead… The JAMSTEC remains “bullish” on a regime plenty capable of delivering the cold and snowy “goods” for the region…  BTW- we usually post our annual winter outlook the first Friday of October.  Things have been very hectic as of late and we’re going to have to delay this release by a few weeks….

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-outlook-active-and-cool/