Highlights:
- Mostly sunny and pleasant into mid week
- Gusty SW winds usher in near-record warmth to close the work week
- Friday night showers and storms
- Coldest air and first flakes of the season ahead
Brace For Changes…The short-term remains very quiet and pleasant. If you haven’t already, we suggest knocking out that remaining yard work for the season, or get a jump on the outdoor Christmas lights! (Rude changes loom).
Winds will turn gusty out of the southwest Thursday, especially by afternoon. These strong and gusty SW winds will top 40 MPH Thursday into Friday, but also serve to help give temperatures a boost. Highs both Thursday and Friday will be near record levels.
We should remain dry through the daytime Friday, but a band of showers and embedded thunder will rumble through the state Friday night as a strong cold front passes through. Behind the cold front, expect an abrupt wind shift to the northwest and falling temperatures through the day Saturday. Heavier jackets and coats will be required as wind chills in the 20s fall into the teens Saturday night into Sunday morning. Left-over, “backlash” moisture will fall in the form of flurries and scattered light snow showers. Further north, light accumulations of snow are possible across northern IN snowbelt communities.
Cold, dry weather will continue into early next week. Looking further ahead, another storm system looms around Thanksgiving.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″-0.50″
In addition to the central PAC anomalies, we also are keying in on some other items of interest in the overall SST configuration:
The SST CA model is quickly becoming one of our more trusted seasonal forecast models. We note how it becomes increasingly bullish on a central and eastern trough as winter wears on (by the way, this is likely to go deep into spring this year, too).
Cold overwhelms the pattern and when you combine it with the active storm track (noted by the green hues, suggesting above normal precipitation through our neck of the woods), confidence is continuing to grow for an above normal snow season.
The SST configuration on the JAMSTEC would suggest a cold, stormy set-up, locally. That said, while it sees the above average precipitation, it’s awfully warm at the surface.
The NMME (to no surprise…) would suggest a very warm, wet winter.
As a reminder, our complete and final annual winter outlook will be posted here during the second half of October. That will include additional model data, along with several other points behind our reasoning for our winter forecast. As we always do, we’ll put “pen to paper” when it comes to our winter forecast, including our expected temperature and snowfall anomalies. Given the data above, including the warm JAMSTEC and NMME, it’s going to be very, very hard to see a warm winter here. In fact, our idea is for the exact opposite, given the SST configuration, and lines up more closely with the SST CA idea at this point. We’re also in the camp of a very, very active storm track through the Ohio Valley. “Big-hitter” potential is present from a winter storm perspective, especially given that we are likely to see resistance from the SE ridge.
