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Category: snow
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekend-video-update/
Jan 18
Times Are Changing, Or Are They?
January-to-date is running milder than normal across the region- to the tune of 3.3 degrees (F). This is after a frigid open to the month, as you recall.
The second week of the month warmed significantly and continues, overall, for the next week.
The mid-January warmth is attributed to a roaring PAC jet which is currently helping flood the country with temperatures much more like spring than the dead of winter. We continue to forecast 60+ this weekend across central IN.
Winter lovers, have no fear as changes appear to be in the offing as we go through the last few days of January and head into February. The winter so far has featured conflicting signals that continue to try and compete with one another to take hold of the pattern. Can we get these drivers to align in a way that would pull a more persistent trough into the east for the second half of the winter and, ultimately, set-up a sustained cold pattern helping make up for lost time in the snowfall department? Time will tell, but we do note the following late month:
- (+) PNA pattern
- Sudden stratospheric warming event
- High latitude blocking
All are encouraging for a shift back towards a wintry regime. As always, the devil is in the details and we’re skeptical as to the longevity of these signals. “Cautiously optimistic” would be the way to sum up our current feel longer-term into the month of February, but we’re not as bullish on lock and hold cold, wintry conditions at this time as what you may hear from some of our national compadres. Understanding that various drivers can have a different impact mid and late winter as opposed to early is one thing. It’s also important to note that long term modeling has been abysmal as of late and we want to tread through the next couple of weeks with caution to see whether or not the cold drivers can finally take hold.
Needless to say, at least through late month, one can see the significant changes take place at 500mb.
Thursday:
This Weekend:
Next Thursday:
Next Weekend:
The pattern begins in the short-term with a look that will power anomalous warmth through the weekend, along with renewed rain chances Thursday night into Friday (another 1″+ for most), but begins to shift next week towards the colder look. The 2nd (weekend) storm system will be significant and poses a severe risk to the southeast region. Modeling has backed away on the heavy rain threat Sunday, but showers will be around early next week along with very windy conditions (40+ MPH gusts). Blocking is forcing the low south. By the time we get to next weekend, the pattern has done a 180 and in a position to drill unseasonably cold air back into the central and eastern portions of the country.
As far as storms go later in the period, it’s far too early to discuss specifics, but the pattern seems to be one that will promote the chance to get into the act on high-ratio producing clippers. It’s the first time we can say that this year. Time will tell…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/times-are-changing-or-are-they/
Jan 08
Changeable Weather; Late Week Ice Threat…
Highlights:
- Another bitter day
- Moderating temperatures ahead
- Late week ice threat looms
Bitter Cold Gives Way To Moderating Temperatures…The first half of the forecast period is easy, but we caution big time headaches loom and details are far from etched in stone once to the second half of this forecast period.
First thing’s first and that’s today. Look for a continuation of bitterly cold air, but slow moderation will be noted this afternoon: Not AS bitter and lighter winds. We may even crack the 20 degree mark! I know, break out the swim suits, right?! This moderating trend is setting the tone for a more significant jump in the mercury later in the week. Before a “taste of spring” arrives, we’ll have to deal with a brief opportunity for freezing drizzle Monday evening. Temperatures will zoom to around 50 Tuesday and around 60 for mid week. Showers will be with us off and on- focused on Tuesday and Thursday for most widespread coverage.
Then comes the “fun.” A strong, sprawling arctic high will push south into the northern Plains Friday. At the same time, “resistance” from the southeast ridge (that can be thanked for the spring-like feel here Wednesday and Thursday) will result in the arctic front only slowly being able to push south. Ripples of energy, or waves of low pressure, will move along the arctic boundary and result in periods of widespread precipitation Friday into the weekend. As the cold, dense arctic air oozes south, we have concern for icing- freezing rain and sleet Friday into Saturday. Depending on how things evolve, this may continue into Sunday, as well. If you have travel plans this weekend, please keep a close eye on the developments in the forecast from Friday on. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Snowfall: 1.00″
Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/changeable-weather-late-week-ice-threat/
Jan 07
Saturday Morning Rambles…
1.) Coast-to-coast cold: The Lower 48 is waking up in an ice box this morning as widespread arctic air and below normal temperatures engulf the country (minus the FL peninsula this morning). The arctic express will remain with us through the weekend, including temperatures once again tonight that threaten to dip into the sub-zero range across central Indiana. Highs today will only reach the middle 10s and upper 10s to lower 20s Sunday. Bundle up and stay warm.
2.) Expanding Snowpack: 65.4% of the country is covered in snow this morning. The cold, arctic high suppressed the winter storm threat south as we alluded to in previous posts. Places across the Deep South that aren’t used to wintry precipitation are waking up to snowy and icy conditions this morning, including MS, AL, GA, SC, and into the Mid Atlantic. Heavier snowfall accumulated across east TN, including 5″-8″ in the high country. Heavy snow also fell through western and central NC and Blizzard Warnings are up in rare areas including VA Beach this morning.
3.) Moderating Temperatures: Our air flow will back around to the southwest and this will help temperatures begin to moderate early next week (around freezing Monday and all the way to around 50 Tuesday). As the moderating trend gets underway, we may have to deal with a brief period of freezing drizzle/ freezing rain Monday evening.
4.) Rainy Midweek: A more significant surge of moisture will arrive midweek and result in periods of moderate to heavy rain Wednesday PM into Thursday. Potential is present for 1″+ during this timeframe.
5.) Weekend Wintry “Fun And Games?” A tremendous battle will take place next weekend between a strong and sprawling arctic high pressure system and the southeast ridge. In between it’ll be fascinating to watch things unfold, and as you’d imagine, that includes Indiana. Despite the southeast ridge flexing it’s muscle, the concern here is that the shallow dense arctic air will “ooze” south and present an icy set-up for portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid West for the weekend. We still have some time to watch this, but the potential of significant icing is very much present for some and this will require a close eye through the week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-morning-rambles-9/
Jan 05
Snow Intensifies Again Early Afternoon; Turning Much Colder…
Highlights:
- Snow intensifies for a period this afternoon
- Bitterly cold weekend ahead
- Moderating trend early next week
Snowy Thursday…Light snow developed during the predawn hours and made for a slick morning commute across central Indiana. We note a steadier band of snow currently falling south of the city for places like Bedford, Columbus, and Seymour as of this update (9:30a). As additional energy pushes across the state late morning into the afternoon, look for snow to expand in coverage and intensity for a time across more of central Indiana around lunchtime into the early afternoon before sliding off to the east. Our ongoing snowfall forecast remains unchanged:
Conditions will remain bitterly cold (most of today is spent in the 10s), and with even the slightest bit of snow cover, conditions will turn even more frigid to end the week. Area-wide single digits can be expected to begin the day Friday (Saturday and Sunday, as well) with wind chills below zero. Dry conditions return this weekend. We’ll watch as our friends to the south enjoy a winter storm from Alabama, northern GA, into the Carolinas.
Moderating temperatures return early next week and as the warm advection begins Monday, it could help produce a wintry mix by evening before precipitation transitions to rain Tuesday, along with a breezy SW wind.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
- Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/snow-intensifies-again-early-afternoon-turning-much-colder/