Category Archives: snow

Nice Today; Busy Weather Week Ahead…

Screen Shot 2017-02-05 at 8.48.07 AMHighlights:

  • Lots of sunshine for Super Bowl Sunday
  • Rain and storms early week
  • Mid week snow

Beautiful Super Bowl Sunday; Changes Await…We suggest taking your pregame Super Bowl parties outside today to enjoy what’ll be a rare sunny day!  Temperatures will also be milder today, topping out in the upper 40s.

Unfortunately, the sunny skies won’t last as clouds increase Monday morning and showers move in by afternoon.  As surface low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes, heavier rains and embedded thunderstorms will increase Monday night into Tuesday morning.  A couple of these storms could become strong to severe, and include strong and damaging winds and hail.  Colder air will pour into Indiana on gusty northwest winds Tuesday night behind the frontal passage.

Our attention will then shift to a colder regime for mid week.  We have to iron out the details, but forecast models suggest an area of low pressure will scoot across the central Plains to the East Coast Wednesday into Thursday.  This will spread moisture north into the colder air mass and the result may be a swath of accumulating snow north of the low’s track, including central Indiana.  We’ll be left with very cold air to wrap up the work week.

Next weekend, the “tug of war” regime will continue.  Southwest winds will usher in milder conditions Saturday with showers.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″
7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, snow, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

February Tug Of War…

With data only encompassing the first couple days of the month, February has gotten off to a warm start.  As we know, the trend over the past 24 hours has been colder and this will continue as we open up the weekend.

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2017However the cold air won’t last and milder times will return by the second half of the weekend.  This back and forth “tug of war” type regime will remain as cold and warmth (relative to average) continue to battle over the upcoming couple weeks.  The latest European ensemble shows this nicely.

EPS2317This also favors a rather active pattern and confidence is high on a wetter than average period upcoming over the next couple weeks.  See the GFS ensembles support this idea.  A couple strong storms are also possible Tuesday.

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_4Unfortunately for snow lovers, the majority of significant moisture should fall as rain.  Best snow chances appear to come with “backlash” wrap around snow showers and squalls Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  Accumulating snow is possible, but most amounts should be light.  We’ll keep an eye on it.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_19Longer-term, the fight continues deeper into the month.  As mentioned this morning, teleconnections and analogs would suggest cold and wintry conditions, but modeling sure isn’t going in that direction as of yet.  The battle rages on and given the trends of the winter, it’s hard to bet against the warmer solutions, albeit with lower confidence than we’d like to have from this distance.

10-day, Arctic Cold, European Model, Forecast Discussion, GFS, Heavy Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Hold On To Your Hat; Accumulating Weekend Snow?

Screen Shot 2017-01-31 at 8.07.29 AMHighlights:

  • Windy Tuesday
  • Scattered flurries; snow showers tonight-Wednesday AM
  • Accumulating weekend snow?

Bumpy Ride…Wind will be the big weather item today as a clipper low passes to our north.  Gusty west breezes will reach 30 MPH at times.  Otherwise, it’ll be a mild day as highs reach the lower 40s.  Cooler air will arrive tonight and will promote the chance of a passing flurry or scattered snow shower into Wednesday morning.

We’ll close the week with cold and dry conditions, including highs below freezing both Thursday and Friday.

As we move into the upcoming weekend, a storm system will attack the lingering cold air and this will allow for a period of snow to develop Saturday night into Sunday morning.  We still have time to monitor this event, but as of now this appears to be a relatively weak, flatter wave and “light” is the key word to describe the snow intensity Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Models want to drive a more significant storm system to our northwest early next week.  What’s new this winter?  A windy warm-up would result, including heavier rains late Monday into Tuesday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall:  0.25″ – 0.50″
7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy