Feb 06
That sunshine sure was nice…while it lasted. Clouds lowered and thickened through the afternoon and a wind-driven mist is falling across most of central Indiana this evening. That mist will…
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Feb 06
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-storms-develop-tonight-accumulating-snow-wednesday/
Feb 05
Highlights:
Beautiful Super Bowl Sunday; Changes Await…We suggest taking your pregame Super Bowl parties outside today to enjoy what’ll be a rare sunny day! Temperatures will also be milder today, topping out in the upper 40s.
Unfortunately, the sunny skies won’t last as clouds increase Monday morning and showers move in by afternoon. As surface low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes, heavier rains and embedded thunderstorms will increase Monday night into Tuesday morning. A couple of these storms could become strong to severe, and include strong and damaging winds and hail. Colder air will pour into Indiana on gusty northwest winds Tuesday night behind the frontal passage.
Our attention will then shift to a colder regime for mid week. We have to iron out the details, but forecast models suggest an area of low pressure will scoot across the central Plains to the East Coast Wednesday into Thursday. This will spread moisture north into the colder air mass and the result may be a swath of accumulating snow north of the low’s track, including central Indiana. We’ll be left with very cold air to wrap up the work week.
Next weekend, the “tug of war” regime will continue. Southwest winds will usher in milder conditions Saturday with showers.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
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Feb 04
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-nice-sb-sunday-tuesday-severe-potential/
Feb 03
With data only encompassing the first couple days of the month, February has gotten off to a warm start. As we know, the trend over the past 24 hours has been colder and this will continue as we open up the weekend.
However the cold air won’t last and milder times will return by the second half of the weekend. This back and forth “tug of war” type regime will remain as cold and warmth (relative to average) continue to battle over the upcoming couple weeks. The latest European ensemble shows this nicely.
This also favors a rather active pattern and confidence is high on a wetter than average period upcoming over the next couple weeks. See the GFS ensembles support this idea. A couple strong storms are also possible Tuesday.
Unfortunately for snow lovers, the majority of significant moisture should fall as rain. Best snow chances appear to come with “backlash” wrap around snow showers and squalls Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Accumulating snow is possible, but most amounts should be light. We’ll keep an eye on it.
Longer-term, the fight continues deeper into the month. As mentioned this morning, teleconnections and analogs would suggest cold and wintry conditions, but modeling sure isn’t going in that direction as of yet. The battle rages on and given the trends of the winter, it’s hard to bet against the warmer solutions, albeit with lower confidence than we’d like to have from this distance.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/february-tug-of-war/