Category: Short term update

Mar 11

Rain Mixes With And Changes To Snow Overnight; 2 Shots Of Late Season Arctic Air…

Updated 03.11.23 @ 6:40a

Today will be a quiet and calm weather day across the region. It’s not until we get into the late evening hours when precipitation will overspread central IN from the west. We target an arrival of light rain into the area between 9p and 11p west to east. This light rain should then increase in intensity and begin to transition to wet snow towards midnight, continuing into and through the mid morning hours Sunday.

With only marginally cold temperatures in place and a lack of overly heavy precipitation rates, the thought here is that wet snow accumulation will be in the dusting to 1” range for the bulk of central IN. North of the city, including northern ‘burbs stand a better shot of 1”-2” of wet snow accumulation.

Our attention then shifts to the cold. A couple blasts of late season arctic air will plunge into central IN Monday and Tuesday (lows in the lower 20s and highs in the upper 30s), followed by another cold blast St. Patrick’s Day weekend. We’ll have to also monitor for the potential of additional snow prospects next weekend, but will get through this event first. Speaking of this event, snow should diminish in intensity and come to an end towards 8 to 9a and we don’t anticipate widespread pavement issues due to the recent relative warmth.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/11/rain-mixes-with-and-changes-to-snow-overnight-2-shots-of-late-season-arctic-air/

Jan 01

VIDEO: New Year’s Update On The Short And Longer Range Set-Up…

Updated 01.01.23 @ 6:25p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/01/video-new-years-update-on-the-short-and-longer-range-set-up/

Nov 12

Morning Snow “Thump” Gives Way To Afternoon Snow Showers…

Updated 11.12.22 @ 7:05a

0.8” is the average November snowfall in Indianapolis. We have no changes to our ideas from yesterday with most across the region picking up anywhere from 0.5” to 1.5”, but there will likely be a couple 2”-3” reports by the time the “system” snow diminishes towards lunchtime. Please keep us posted on what you see. Despite relatively warm ground conditions, the time of day that the snow is falling along with the intensity should be more than enough to even generate slushy road conditions at times as well. Take it slow and allow yourself extra time to reach your destination if traveling this morning.

After this morning’s “thump” of snow moves to the northeast, lake effect snow showers and embedded squalls will scoot southeast across the state. These won’t add much to the morning accumulation. Temperatures will then fall into the middle 20s for most tonight.

Don’t look now but another accumulating snow event will likely ride into town Tuesday…

Back-to-back accumulating snow events are tough to come by around these parts in mid November. Flip off a dime and an early start to the snow season, indeed…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/12/morning-snow-thump-gives-way-to-afternoon-snow-showers/

Oct 17

Evening Lake Effect Update…

Updated 10.17.22 @ 6:02p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/10/17/evening-lake-effect-update/

Aug 28

Pre – Sunday Lunch Update…

Updated 08.28.22 @ 11:02a

Temperatures are already pushing the 80° mark before lunchtime with sunny skies across the region.

The airmass is certainly much muggier than we’ve enjoyed as of late. Note dew points around 70° late Sunday morning across the region.

The combination of heat and humidity with just enough lift present from a warm front lifting north through the state this evening, should be enough to allow widely scattered storms to develop by evening, continuing into the early portion of the overnight. Everyone won’t see a storm and coverage won’t be nearly as widespread as what we expect at times through the early portion of the work week, but a few locally heavy downpours are likely to develop between 6p and midnight. High resolution guidance is beginning to also pick up on this.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/28/pre-sunday-lunch-update/

Aug 13

Storms Arrive Overnight…

Updated 08.13.22 @ 7:52a

Just a quick update this morning before a more complete video discussion hits the site tonight.

We’re off to a quiet and cool start to the day with many once again waking up to temperatures down into the 50s with clear conditions. Majority, if not all, of today will be free of any rain and storm activity but that will change tonight. We’re still targeting an elevated storm cluster that will blow southeast across the region during the overnight hours and into Sunday morning.

Majority of central Indiana rain gauges will likely pick up around half an inch of rain.

While the majority of “organized” rain and storms will move out of the region by mid to late morning, a pesky cloud deck and light showers will likely linger for most into the afternoon hours.

More on this and looking ahead to the remainder of August later tonight!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/13/storms-arrive-overnight/

Jul 08

Central Indiana Poised To Finally Cash In On Heavy Rains…

Updated 07.08.22 @ 7:30a

0.14″. That’s it in the rainfall department, officially recorded at IND, for the month so far. While several neighborhoods have seen much more rainfall than that, it reiterates just how dry it’s been here for most immediate central Indiana communities. In fact, we have to go all the way back to June 12th to find the last 24 hour period where IND recorded anything close to even half an inch of rain (0.49″).

With all of that said, a combination of ingredients should come together to finally allow a widespread chunk of central Indiana to accumulate hefty rain totals as we get set to close out the work week.

I. We have added forcing from a cold front and wave of low pressure that will move along the boundary as it sags south this evening. This will aid in helping more widespread coverage of rain and thunderstorms fire, especially as we progress into the afternoon and evening.

II. A truly tropical airmass engulfs the region this morning and this will remain in place until the cold front clears the area late tonight. Precipitable water values in excess of 2″ combined with dew points in the lower to middle 70s will allow rain and storms to feed off the juicy air this afternoon and evening. Rainfall rates of 2″+ per hour will be common in the heavier cells. Should storms train over the same areas, flash flooding will likely develop.

III. As the wave of low pressure moves across the state this afternoon and evening, it could help enhance the threat of severe weather, especially along and south of the I-70 corridor. A quick spin-up tornado isn’t out of the realm of possibility but the bigger severe threats appear to be from wet microbursts (damaging wind/ hail).

We anticipate many central Indiana neighborhoods to accumulate at least an inch of rain today with some communities seeing locally heavier totals. Again, where heavier cells train, localized flash flooding will develop.

Eventually the front will settle south and clear the state tonight. This will allow drier and MUCH less humid to return to the region just in time for the weekend. We expect plentiful sunshine, low humidity, and cooler temperatures to dominate through the day Monday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/07/08/central-indiana-poised-to-finally-cash-in-on-heavy-rains/

Jul 06

VIDEO: Looking At The 2nd Half Of The Week And Into Week 2…

Updated 07.06.22 @ 5:05p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/07/06/video-looking-at-the-2nd-half-of-the-week-and-into-week-2/

May 27

VIDEO: Perfect Timing For Our Improving Weather; Quiet Regime Into Early Next Week…

Updated 05.27.21 @ 7:50a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/05/27/video-perfect-timing-for-our-improving-weather-quiet-regime-into-early-next-week/

Feb 23

Mid-Morning Update…

Updated 02.23.22 @ 10:04a

As we analyze downstream radar trends and fresh high resolution, short-term guidance, it appears as if the initial burst of precipitation is speeding up. It now looks like a mixture of light snow and light sleet will arrive into central Indiana between 7p and 10p.

Forecast radar at 10p Wednesday.

Along and north of the I-70 corridor, this should fall primarily as snow (up to 1”). Further south, a mixture of sleet and freezing rain is expected this evening (where things remains all freezing rain, a light glaze, perhaps up to 0.1”. is expected to develop on elevated surfaces by sunrise).

Our updated client brief will be posted later this evening and include additional thoughts as the 12z data streams in.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/02/23/mid-morning-update/

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