Category: Short term update

Mar 31

Friday Afternoon Briefing: Severe Threat Continues To Increase…

Updated 03.31.23 @ 2:15p

The talented folks over at the Storm Prediction Center have increased the Day 1 severe threat to now include most of the state in a Moderate (level 4 out 5) risk. It should also be pointed out that all modes of severe weather are in play, including tornadoes, some of which could be long track.

We continue to believe discrete cells will begin to fire later this evening (targeting initiation between 4p and 6p) across the state and it won’t take much for these to begin to show signs of rotation. If you don’t have to travel tonight, we recommend making it a night in and keeping tuned to the latest watches and warnings that will be sure to come.

As we progress deeper into the evening and early overnight hours, that’s when we expect a squall line, capable of producing damaging straight line winds, to march across the state from west to east. We bracket the hours of 10p to 2a west to east for impacts. In addition to the heightened damaging wind threat, it’s possible some of the embedded cells within the line will try and rotate, leading to a spin up tornado potential within the advancing line, especially for western and central parts of the state.

No need for panic or alarm, these events take place every year around these parts. Just ensure to review your severe weather plan and stay tuned to local media for the latest warnings that will be issued later this afternoon and into the evening.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-afternoon-briefing-severe-threat-continues-to-increase/

Mar 30

Latest Details; Timing Out Storms Friday Into The Overnight…

Updated 03.30.23 @ 7:48a

Today is easy. We’ll have a few clouds drifting through the state at times, but also expect a good deal of sunshine and temperatures warming into the upper 50s to lower 60s after the cold start to the day.

In the short-term, all eyes remain squarely focused on Friday into the early morning hours Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest severe weather outlook Friday places all of the state in some sort of risk of severe. Far northeastern Indiana (Auburn and Angola) is in a “marginal” risk. The majority of the state, including Indianapolis, Bloomington, South Bend, and Lafayette is in a “slight” risk, and places such as Terre Haute down to Evansville and Jasper is included in an “enhanced” risk. Bottom line, all of us can expect a threat of severe weather tomorrow and it’ll be important to have a means of getting the latest information regarding any warnings that will likely be issued.

As we time things out, we’ll wake up to widespread showers and embedded thunder Friday morning, but most, if not all, of this activity will remain well below severe levels.

Showers and embedded thunder (non-severe) will be with us out the door Friday morning

It’s as we progress into tomorrow evening and the overnight that the concern of severe weather will increase. We bracket the hours of 10p and 3a from west to east that should feature a heightened risk of severe, with the biggest concern being damaging straight line winds with a line of storms that will roll across the state. There’s also an opportunity for a couple of discrete cells within the broader line to rotate and produce a tornado or two.

A line of severe storms is expected to impact the state Friday night. We bracket 10p (west) to 3a (southeast) for the biggest impacts.
Forecast radar at 12a Saturday.

We also want to be sure to hit on the “gradient” (non thunderstorm) winds that will impact the entire area. Gusts approaching 50 MPH can be expected Friday afternoon/ evening and again Saturday morning into the afternoon.

Speaking of Saturday- it’ll feature improving conditions from a severe perspective, but we’ll be left with falling temperatures (it’ll be one of those days with a “midnight high”), gusty winds, and a few leftover light showers. After a high around 60° at midnight, temperatures will be spent in the 30s and 40s most of the day with colder ‘chills.

Bigger improvements are on deck Sunday before we have to turn our attention to our next severe weather episode early next week. More on that and updated long range thoughts later this evening.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/latest-details-timing-out-storms-friday-into-the-overnight/

Mar 11

Rain Mixes With And Changes To Snow Overnight; 2 Shots Of Late Season Arctic Air…

Updated 03.11.23 @ 6:40a

Today will be a quiet and calm weather day across the region. It’s not until we get into the late evening hours when precipitation will overspread central IN from the west. We target an arrival of light rain into the area between 9p and 11p west to east. This light rain should then increase in intensity and begin to transition to wet snow towards midnight, continuing into and through the mid morning hours Sunday.

With only marginally cold temperatures in place and a lack of overly heavy precipitation rates, the thought here is that wet snow accumulation will be in the dusting to 1” range for the bulk of central IN. North of the city, including northern ‘burbs stand a better shot of 1”-2” of wet snow accumulation.

Our attention then shifts to the cold. A couple blasts of late season arctic air will plunge into central IN Monday and Tuesday (lows in the lower 20s and highs in the upper 30s), followed by another cold blast St. Patrick’s Day weekend. We’ll have to also monitor for the potential of additional snow prospects next weekend, but will get through this event first. Speaking of this event, snow should diminish in intensity and come to an end towards 8 to 9a and we don’t anticipate widespread pavement issues due to the recent relative warmth.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/rain-mixes-with-and-changes-to-snow-overnight-2-shots-of-late-season-arctic-air/

Jan 01

VIDEO: New Year’s Update On The Short And Longer Range Set-Up…

Updated 01.01.23 @ 6:25p

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-new-years-update-on-the-short-and-longer-range-set-up/

Nov 12

Morning Snow “Thump” Gives Way To Afternoon Snow Showers…

Updated 11.12.22 @ 7:05a

0.8” is the average November snowfall in Indianapolis. We have no changes to our ideas from yesterday with most across the region picking up anywhere from 0.5” to 1.5”, but there will likely be a couple 2”-3” reports by the time the “system” snow diminishes towards lunchtime. Please keep us posted on what you see. Despite relatively warm ground conditions, the time of day that the snow is falling along with the intensity should be more than enough to even generate slushy road conditions at times as well. Take it slow and allow yourself extra time to reach your destination if traveling this morning.

After this morning’s “thump” of snow moves to the northeast, lake effect snow showers and embedded squalls will scoot southeast across the state. These won’t add much to the morning accumulation. Temperatures will then fall into the middle 20s for most tonight.

Don’t look now but another accumulating snow event will likely ride into town Tuesday…

Back-to-back accumulating snow events are tough to come by around these parts in mid November. Flip off a dime and an early start to the snow season, indeed…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/morning-snow-thump-gives-way-to-afternoon-snow-showers/