Jul 10
This afternoon’s video update covers what will be a beauty of a close to the work week, potential strong to severe storms over the weekend, and a true feel of…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/10/stormy-weekend-followed-by-an-autumn-ish-feel/
Jul 10
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Today will be another beautiful day across central Indiana with low humidity, cooler than normal temperatures, and plentiful sunshine. Be sure to enjoy because we’re eyeing stormier times and increasing humidity for the weekend. Most of Friday will feature more pleasant conditions, but storm chances will increase Friday night and this is just the beginning of what will likely be a rather busy weekend, including multiple storm chances. We’ll have to fine tune timing of thunderstorm complexes as we move forward, but for now we may have to deal with a round of gusty (strong to severe not out of the question) storms Saturday morning and again later through the weekend. Severe threats this weekend include damaging straight line winds and large hail. A strong cold front will sweep the state late Monday and early Tuesday and help usher in a fall-like feel for the majority of next week! It’ll be hard to believe it’s mid July with the type cool air mass we’ll enjoy!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/10/weekend-turns-stormy/
Jul 07
This evening’s video covers a potential round of thunderstorms Tuesday morning and takes a deeper look at the mid range. Yet ANOTHER unseasonably cool blast of air awaits on deck for mid-month and will provide a hint of early fall, per the EC ensemble run below for next week. This is just one piece of data amongst several pieces pointing towards a big mid-month cool down. Much more in the video update below!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/07/monday-evening-video-update-2/
Jul 06
What a weather year this has been for central Indiana. Snow and cold translated to wet and stormy as winter turned to spring. Now as summer rumbles into the supposed “dog days” we’re really left with the exact opposite. Our weather pattern will be dominated by a fast moving northwest flow over the upcoming (7) days and this spells an active and stormy open to the work week and next weekend, with an “island” of cool, pleasant weather thrown in the mix Wednesday through Friday.
The GFS operational run shows that we’ll remain locked into the rather active northwest flow pattern through the upcoming week. Note that while the trough axis moves east with time, the northwest flow remains intact.
There’s excellent ensemble support from the GEFS and EC, as well.
The end result is a (7) day stretch that remains cooler than normal when all added up, highlighted by the cooler punch of air (worthy of open windows yet again) Wed-Fri.
This also remains quite the active pattern in regards to thunderstorm complexes and rounds of locally heavy rainfall. We bracket late tonight into Monday morning and again Monday night into Tuesday, followed by next weekend for possible storm complexes that will make for a rather noisy time of things here. As for the severe threat, we’ll have to keep a close eye on each complex. It’s possible one or two of these could pose a damaging wind threat as they race southeast and that’s our biggest concern as of now.
When you total it all up, the upcoming (7) day period, July 7th-14th, is likely to lead to more significant rainfall over the region. The Canadian isn’t holding back, suggesting widespread 2-3″ totals. That may be a bit “bullish,” but we’ll forecast 1.5″-2″ with ease during the upcoming week, including locally heavier totals.
Quick summary:
Monday through Tuesday will be highlighted by rainy and stormy periods before we introduce a much cooler and drier regime Wednesday through Friday. Humidity builds over the upcoming weekend with additional rain and thunderstorm chances returning.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/06/here-we-go-again-2/
Jul 06
Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. 62/ 83 66/ 83 70/ 81 61/ 78 52/ 75 54/ 81 62/ 83 Light Light…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/06/busy-week-of-weather-ahead/
Jul 04
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Happy Independence Day! Canadian high pressure remains firmly in control of our weather today and for the majority of the weekend for that matter. As a result, look for plentiful amounts of sunshine and temperatures that will continue the cooler than normal regime we enjoyed Thursday. Today’s conditions, once again, will have that feeling of early fall. ENJOY! A more active weather pattern will return early next week as we potentially have to deal with a couple thunderstorm complexes in the Monday-Tuesday time period. Heavy rain and the chance of severe weather will return to your forecast Monday night into Tuesday and we’ll have more details around this as we move closer. A cooler and drier regime will build in by the middle portion of next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/04/sun-filled-and-unseasonably-cool/
Jun 30
As we type this, a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been hoisted to include much of northwestern Indiana. The concern is that the complex of storms, already responsible for damaging weather across Iowa, gains steam as it plows east and intensifies this evening.
There’s no doubt in overall thinking that northern Indiana is at greatest risk for damaging severe weather later this evening and overnight, but we do have some concern that areas further south aren’t out of the woods. Is there risk at being wrong in the further south idea? Absolutely. However, a look over the latest model data continues to suggest there’s plenty of moisture and fuel readily available. Additionally, similar thunderstorm complexes have been known to “hook” south as they intensify racing east and short-term modeling has been known to have to play catch up at the very end in some particular cases. That’s not something we want to play around with tonight, given what the potential is. Will potential become reality here across central Indiana? Big question at the moment, but one can’t be too careful with this particular situation as a rather widespread damaging wind event should expand in the coming hours. Nowcasting will be key. Should central Indiana get in on the stormy action it would be late this evening and overnight- midnight-ish, and after, for most.
Our best educated projection at this juncture would place north-central Indiana (a line from Crawfordsville to Muncie) and points north under the greatest risk for potential severe weather late tonight. Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with this complex tonight. Know that we’ll keep a close eye on things moving forward and suggest setting the weather radio on alert mode before heading off to bed this evening. As always, have a means to get watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/30/more-on-tonights-severe-threat/
Jun 30
We spoke Sunday of a couple complexes of thunderstorms potentially impacting the region today. The first complex of thunderstorms is moving into northwestern portions of the state as we write this and short-term modeling is already struggling on the track of this complex. Note the forecast radar, via the HRRR and 4km NAM, valid 8am versus the actual radar snapped at 7:30am.
The first complex of thunderstorms will likely blow through north-central Indiana counties later this morning.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the region under a slight risk of severe today, including a heightened moderate risk across Iowa, MO, and IL. All modes of severe weather are in play, including potential tornadoes, large hail, and damaging straight line winds.
The latest 4km NAM shows complex number 2 erupting over Iowa later this afternoon.
This is the complex of storms that could pose a rather active time of things across Indiana tonight.
Moisture and energy will be plentiful, meaning storms will likely remain strong to severe as they push into central Indiana. Additionally, locally heavy downpours are a good bet.
Forecast CAPE is to be around 3500-4500 J/kg tonight when complex number 2 is eyeing the region. In short, this means “energy” will be plentiful for storms to remain strong to severe as they blow into the region. Think of CAPE as fuel for storms.
Forecast PWAT, or precipitable water, shows a ribbon of 2″ streaking through the central portions of the state and suggests torrential downpours with any storm.
Bottom line, it’ll be important to have a means of getting your latest weather information and radar trends later this evening. The greatest severe threat to our immediate region appears to be with a straight line wind component, but as stated above, we’ll have to be on guard for all modes of severe weather.
Now casting will be key later tonight as we eye another round of potential severe weather impacting the state. While the first complex of storms will impact northern counties this morning, it’s complex number 2 late tonight that could pack a punch across a more widespread portion of the region. More later this afternoon!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/30/severe-threat-tonight-for-portions-of-the-region/
Jun 28
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A warm front is lifting north through the region this morning and rain will continue to expand in coverage this morning as the front lifts north. Sunshine will then quickly build back into central Indiana this afternoon, along with plenty of humidity. We’ll get back into the scattered afternoon/ evening “splash and dash” thunderstorm regime later today and again Sunday. Looking further ahead, concern is growing about a potential severe weather event here Monday and we’ll have an additional post later this weekend discussing this potential in more detail. For now, plan to pay special close attention to Monday’s forecast with damaging severe weather potential in play (all modes of severe weather at hand). We still forecast a MUCH cooler, drier regime building in mid week and remaining in place through the upcoming holiday weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/28/humid-weekend-severe-potential-monday/
Jun 24
The pattern continues to look as if it’ll evolve in a way that will assist in delivering the hottest air so far this year during the course of the upcoming weekend into early next week. That said, the seeds are once again being planted that should promote a trough and associated cooler than normal pattern returning as we head closer to the Independence Day holiday.
In short, an active and progressive pattern is set to continue across our immediate neck of the woods. This promises a continuation of above average precipitation and while shots of hot air will invade from time to time, it’s going to be mighty tough to get any sort of hot pattern to stick around for any sort of staying power over the course of the upcoming couple weeks.
In the short-term, we’ll enjoy a couple of cooler, drier days for the mid week stretch, but ridging will build this weekend into the middle part of next week and we should have no problem reaching the hottest levels of the year so far. Note, however, how the upper pattern reverses and allows a trough to develop over the Lakes and Ohio Valley by Day 10, or the Independence Day holiday.
There’s relatively good agreement between the GFS and European during the 8-10 day period with the trough and associated cooler pattern returning.
The NAEFS and CFSv2 highlight the warmer than normal pattern giving way to cooling week 2.
The GFS ensembles show the transient regime ahead. Note the warming giving way to cooling and then warming again towards week 3. Again, this is a good indication of wetter than normal conditions as well across a good portion of the Mid West and Ohio Valley.
To sum things up, the hottest air so far this year will likely move into the Hoosier state early next week and feature a day or two of 90 degrees +. The heat won’t have staying power as a trough and associated cooler air mass will return heading into the Independence Day holiday, and could potentially be highlighted by a round of gusty storms as the heat gives way to cooling. We’ll have to keep an eye on this as we draw closer.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/24/hot-weekend-coming-but-were-set-to-cool-going-into-the-holiday/
