Oct 05
A noisy night is ahead as the promised heavy rain event and strong to severe thunderstorms arrive in the city around, or just prior to 8pm. A couple of rounds…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/05/noisy-night-ahead-longer-range-thoughts/
Oct 05
http:/ Good Morning! Here’s a quick video showing what the ECMWF and GFS see as far as the coming heavy rainfall event goes. Your full forecast is below. As…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/05/quick-video-brief-discussing-rain-severe-potential/
Oct 04
Updated 10.05.13 @ 6:32a
Zionsville, IN After a pleasant end to the work week (how about highs once again zooming into the 80s Friday?!), we begin to undergo major weather changes as we progress through the weekend. Our hats are off to the European model for nailing this heavy rain threat days in advance. After a sub-par performance earlier this week with rainfall amounts, it’s making up for “lost time” and in quick fashion.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, showers and t-storms; 1.00″ 66/ 78
While we may muster a little sunshine during the daytime hours Saturday, we think most of the day is mostly cloudy, warm, and humid, with an increasing risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. We bracket the evening and overnight as the best time period for significant thunderstorms, including a severe thunderstorm. We anticipate damaging straight line winds as the primary focus for severe weather, but a quick spin-up tornado or two is possible. Severe weather is dangerous any time of the day, but particularly dangerous at night. Be sure to keep tuned to local media and make sure to have your weather radio on alert mode. Another item of concern? The heavy rainfall threat. Most of central Indiana should check in with 1″, or more, of rainfall by the end of the day.
Sunday: Thunderstorms; 1.25″ 51/ 66
The cold front will slow to a crawl as it progresses through the state and as a result, we look for heavy rain and embedded thunder continuing Sunday, especially during the morning and early afternoon. Rain will end from west to east as we progress through the afternoon hours. Heavy rainfall is likely for the entire region, but especially for the eastern and southeastern portions of the state. Temperatures will begin to fall as we go through the afternoon.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, showers; 0.10″ 50/ 59
An upper level low will remain overhead Monday creating a much cooler day along with considerable cloudiness and scattered showers. Highs likely won’t make it out of the 50s for many across central Indiana.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, small shower chance; 0.10″ 45/ 62
Weather conditions will begin to improve as we move into Tuesday. We should add a little more sunshine to the mix and rain chances will diminish. An isolated shower is possible, but many communities will remain rain-free Tuesday.
Wednesday through Friday: Mostly sunny; lower to middle 40s/ lower to middle 70s
We’ll enjoy dry conditions with lots of sunshine and moderating temperatures as we progress through the back half of next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/04/saturday-forecast-stormy-weekend-unfolding/
Oct 04
Good Friday morning! Overnight model data is in and we continue to look things over from a total rainfall perspective, as well as any severe weather threat that exists Saturday evening. As of now, we anticipate the best chance of any kind of severe thunderstorms to occur Saturday evening/ night and the biggest threat appears to be from a damaging wind standpoint. The latest severe weather outlook from the trusted Storm Prediction Center (SPC) places central and western Indiana under a Slight Risk of severe weather Saturday.
The 12z NAM is hot off the press and suggests the heaviest rainfall threat is mostly east of Indianapolis proper. There’s the chance rainfall amounts approach 2″ across far eastern Indiana. We’ll continue to analyze the data as it comes in this afternoon and have a complete update posted later today.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/04/monitoring-where-the-heaviest-axis-of-rain-sets-up/