Category: Severe Weather

Feb 27

Dinnertime Rambles: Active Night And Sharply Colder Wednesday…

Updated 02.27.24 @ 6:42p

As we write this update, severe storms are firing across northern IL where a Tornado Watch has been issued until 11p (eastern). Meanwhile, all is quiet on the home front, thanks to strong “capping” in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Unfortunately, that cap likely won’t hold and we still anticipate scattered strong to severe storms to impact central and southern Indiana during the overnight.

All modes of severe weather remain on the table, including damaging straight line winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Initiation of convection across central/ southern IN should come around or just after midnight and end by 3a to 4a (west to east).

Please make sure you have a means to receive the latest severe weather alerts prior to heading to bed tonight.

By the time most are waking up Wednesday, we’ll be talking about an entirely different array of conditions. Sharply colder air, light snow showers, and strong northwesterly winds will ensure to remind folks it’s late-February, after all.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/27/dinnertime-rambles-active-night-and-sharply-colder-wednesday/

Feb 27

VIDEO: Severe Weather Expected This Evening And Overnight; Sharply Colder Wednesday…

Updated 02.27.24 @ 5:58a An unseasonably warm and quiet daytime will take a stormy turn tonight. All modes of severe weather are in play late evening and into the overnight,…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/27/video-severe-weather-expected-this-evening-and-overnight-sharply-colder-wednesday/

Feb 26

Monday Evening Thoughts On Storm Potential Tonight – Wednesday…

Updated 02.26.24 @ 5:51p

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the ‘marginal’ risk area within their Day 1 Outlook. This is for the potential of isolated strong cells developing later this evening and through the overnight (large hail being the biggest concern from any stronger cell that pops), but this shouldn’t be a widespread severe weather event by any stretch of the imagination.

The Day 2 Outlook remains largely unchanged from this morning across our immediate area.

Concern remains that all modes of severe weather will be realized across northern IL and northern IN Tuesday evening into the overnight.

We want to reiterate that the majority of the daytime should be void of any sort of significant rain or storms across the state. It’s after 7p, and more so after 9p, that we expect discrete cells to initialize and roll across northern IN. These discrete cells will be capable of rotating (TOR potential remains), but also have the potential of damaging winds and large hail. The most widespread of evening convection should be focused north of the city, itself, but we’ll keep a close eye on tonight’s and Tuesday morning’s data.

We continue to believe a more pronounced squall line will march east across the state, including central and southern Indiana, during the overnight and predawn hours and it’s with this line that an elevated damaging wind threat will be hoisted. Timing this threat out features the 2a to 5a Wednesday time block from west to east. We recommend reviewing your severe weather safety plan and have a means of receiving the latest warning information should they be issued.

Showers and embedded thunder will remain widespread through the early morning hours before pushing off to our east by mid morning. By this time, we’ll be trending sharply colder (temperatures will fall off the cliff Wednesday morning), drier, but very windy.

Predawn highs around 60° Wednesday will be shaved by 30° by late morning along with a biting northwesterly wind gusting 30-40 MPH.

High pressure will deliver a colder, but sunny Thursday before a weak system delivers a return of clouds and light (insignificant) showers to close the work week.

The weekend continues to look mighty nice, including a quick rebound in the mercury and another taste of spring ahead of our next approaching storm early next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/26/monday-evening-thoughts-on-tonight-wednesday/

Feb 26

VIDEO: Forecasting Record Warmth Today; Timing Out Rounds Of Storms Late Tonight – Wednesday AM…

Updated 02.26.24 @ 7:30a We’ll go from “chamber of commerce” type weather to open the work week, including pushing for a record high later this afternoon, to rounds of storms…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/26/video-forecasting-record-warmth-today-timing-out-rounds-of-storms-late-tonight-wednesday-am/

Feb 25

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 02.25.24 @ 7:55a

Though a bit earlier than usual this year, it’s time to “dust off” our dedicated weekly post aimed solely at looking at the potential of severe weather in the week ahead. You can expect this to be posted each Sunday morning moving forward through the spring and summer before sunsetting for another year come late September.

An anomalous pattern will dominate the period as we close February and open March. The eastern ridge will become stronger in response to a digging trough across the Western CONUS.
Well above average temperatures can be expected for the Plains and Eastern CONUS through the upcoming week. Cooling behind our midweek frontal passage will be brief before another significant warm-up late week.
The upcoming 2-week period should yield above average precipitation to the majority of the forecast area (to well above average across the Southeast).

Forecast period: 02.25.24 through 03.03.24

The “headliner” system in the forecast period is an area of low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday (02.27 and 02.28). This will drag a trailing cold front through the Ohio Valley Wednesday morning into the afternoon (west to east).

The Storm Prediction Center includes most of the region in some sort of risk of severe weather Tuesday. The greatest risk of severe appears to include an area north and west of a rough line from Evansville northeast to Bloomington and Toledo, OH. While all modes of severe weather are in play, we remain most concerned for the threat of damaging straight line winds Tuesday PM.

Ingredients aren’t off the charts (rarely are this time of year), but parameters are sufficient enough to warrant the chance of strong to severe storms Tuesday into very early Wednesday morning before the cold front moves through the region and results in falling temperatures and a much more stable airmass engulfing the entire OHV through the day. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune specific timing of storms.

Beyond this point, an area of high pressure will settle overhead, resulting in a much more stable pattern to close the week and head through the weekend. Expect sunshine to return and another quick warm-up to get underway during this period. Highs will zoom back into the 60s next weekend.

Looking ahead, we’ll need to monitor the threat of another potential strong-severe storm window during the early to middle stages of next week. Far too early for specifics, but similar ingredients appear in play which isn’t shocking given the ‘mean’ upper air pattern shown to open this post. We also want to reiterate the above to well above average precipitation expected throughout meteorological spring. Image 3 above highlights the wet look over the upcoming couple weeks.

Upcoming Storm Dates to keep an eye on:

  • 02.26 – 02.27
  • 03.03 – 03.05

*10-day rainfall projection: 1.25″ – 2.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/25/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-45/

Feb 24

VIDEO: Overall, Strong Signal For Unseasonable Warmth Remains On Charts Into Early March. Watching Storms Early Next Week…

Updated 02.24.24 @ 8a Any lingering light snow showers will quickly come to an end this morning and we’ll welcome sunshine back into the picture later today. Sunday will feature…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/24/video-overall-strong-signal-for-unseasonable-warmth-remains-on-charts-into-early-march-watching-storms-early-next-week/

Feb 23

VIDEO: Tracking Snow Tonight Followed By A Quick Warm-Up And Storms Next Week…

Updated 02.23.24 @ 7:34a

A fast moving clipper system will offer up a round of snow tonight across northern and central IN. Here’s our latest thinking with respect to accumulation numbers. Snow lovers, we recommend getting out to enjoy early Saturday as an increasingly powerful late February sun angle will have many asking “what snow?!” as early as the afternoon.

A quick warm-up is on deck for the 2nd half of the weekend and we’re eyeing the potential of a couple rounds of storms Tuesday. A few of these storms could become severe, with damaging straight line winds the biggest concern from this distance with any of the severe activity that potentially develops.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/23/video-tracking-snow-tonight-followed-by-a-quick-warm-up-and-storms-next-week/

Feb 22

Just A Little Busy In The Forecast Office…

Updated 02.22.24 @ 7:20a

“Busy” is one way to describe the upcoming week to 10 days worth of weather as the pattern around these parts, and a large chunk of the East, takes on a spring look and feel. Everything from thunderstorms, rain, clipper snow, and an opportunity for strong to severe storms is included in the week ahead.

An area of low pressure will move through central and southern Indiana this afternoon, continuing to present scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area. While north-central Indiana has been the focal zone for early morning activity, we anticipate more of central and southern Indiana will be impacted throughout the afternoon and early evening.

All of this precipitation and embedded thunder will push off to the south of the area around or just after dinnertime. A quiet night is on deck with cooler air flowing back into the state. This will lead to a calm close to the work week as temperatures “warm” back to around 50° Friday afternoon as sunshine returns.

As we open the weekend, a rapidly moving clipper system will drop southeast across the region, eventually leading to several inches of wet snow for the east TN and western NC mountains. Back here on the home front, a period of snow is expected to develop late Friday night and predawn Saturday. While this certainly won’t be anything like what we saw last Friday, a wet coating of snow is possible in spots as this upper air feature dives across the region. By daybreak Saturday, all of the snow will be out of the area and we’ll be talking about working in more in the way of sunshine into the mix as our day progresses. Gusty northerly winds Saturday morning will diminish as the day wears on.

A quick warm-up is on the way for the 2nd half of the weekend. In fact, highs will approach 60° Sunday afternoon (how’s that for weather whip-lash?!). These warmer times will allow a more potent round of storm to rumble across the region as we progress through the early stages of next week. A warm front will lift northeast across the region Monday with showers and then attention turns to the threat of strong to severe thunderstorm potential as we go through our Tuesday and Wednesday. More on the specific timing and severe threats (damaging straight line wind appears to be the biggest concern from this distance) with updates to come in the days ahead.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is already highlighting the region for the opportunity of severe weather Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday (2/27) Severe Weather Outlook: Source SPC
Wednesday (2/28) Severe Weather Outlook: Source SPC

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/22/just-a-little-busy-in-the-forecast-office/

Feb 10

Spring; #Plant24 Outlook…

Updated 02.10.24 @ 7:20a

Though we still have a few weeks left of meteorological winter, spring and the #Plant24 season will be here before we know it! The headlines that we anticipate to claim the coming months include the following:

  • El Niño likely continues to collapse; La Niña state by late spring/ early summer
  • Widespread wetter than average conditions anticipated for a large chunk of the country, including central Indiana. Opportunity for above average severe weather episodes during the March through May (meteorological spring) time period.
  • Time to prep for a hyper active hurricane season along the Gulf and Southeast US coastlines.

Long range, seasonal forecast models, continue to show the current El Niño collapsing and moving swiftly towards a La Niña late spring and early summer.

This transition will certainly have impacts on the anticipated precipitation and potential of a busier severe weather season this spring. We forecast a rather swift Nino collapse and subsequent onset of La Niña, which ups the ante for a wet spring, not only locally, but across a widespread chunk of the country. Undoubtedly, this could lead to plant24 impacts (delays) at times.

Seasonal products see the above average rain expected for spring 24.

European Seasonal Precipitation Anomalies March through May
JMA Precipitation Anomalies March through May

From a temperature perspective, we forecast widespread milder than normal temperatures as a whole for the season across the northern tier, including central Indiana. We caution though that the way we get to slightly (1° to 2° above normal on the season) milder overall may include wild swings through the season. For example, we forecast a colder than normal 1st half of March, the potential of a significant flip to warmer the 2nd half and a cooler pattern to return for the bulk of April.

European seasonal temperature anomalies March through May
JMA temperature anomalies March through May

IndyWx.com Spring/ #Plant24 Outlook for central Indiana:

  • Temperatures that average 1° to 2° above normal overall for the March-May period.
  • Precipitation that runs 125% to 130% of normal during meteorological spring.

Wishing the best of luck and positive vibes to all in the months ahead, especially our #AGwx partners. Happy spring!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/10/spring-plant24-outlook/

Feb 05

VIDEO: Potential Of Significant Period Of Cold; #Plant24 Pattern Thoughts…

Updated 02.05.24 @ 6p Potential is on the increase for a period of notable cold during late-February. We look into this along with the staying power, and early thoughts on…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/05/video-potential-of-significant-period-of-cold-plant24-pattern-thoughts/

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