Mar 25
Updated 03.25.24 @ 7:25a While the work week will open on a quiet note today, we’ll really notice an uptick in winds by afternoon and these will only continue to…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/25/video-batten-down-the-hatches-keeping-an-eye-on-a-line-of-potentially-strong-severe-storms-tuesday-pm/
Mar 24
Updated 03.24.24 @ 8:20a
While a period of unsettled weather looms late Monday and Tuesday, the majority of the upcoming week will feature quiet conditions across our neck of the woods. We’re watching Tuesday afternoon for the potential of severe weather across the state.
The ‘mean’ trough will settle into the western CONUS and that’s where the coldest anomalies will setup shop.
Forecast period: 03.24.24 – 03.31.24
We’ll close the weekend with quiet conditions in place. Anticipate gusty winds to kick up Monday as our next storm system approaches from the west. This will also deliver a few showers Monday night before heavier rain and embedded thunder arrives Tuesday predawn. An additional round of thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon and a few of these could become strong to severe (damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out).
A cold front will sweep east and end the rain/ storm threat Tuesday night with calmer weather returning for mid and late week. The next chance of rain will arrive next weekend. Speaking of next weekend, though early, model guidance is suggestive that we may be looking at a heavy rain event around the time that we close out March and open April. Just something we’ll be keeping an eye on in the days ahead.
Upcoming storm dates to keep an eye on:
*10-day Rainfall Projection: 2.00″ to 3.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/24/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-48/
Mar 19
Updated 03.19.24 @ 5:34a It’s a cold start to the day across central IN, but this time of year, especially with enough sunshine, we can warm-up nicely. That’ll be the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/19/video-turning-gusty-later-today-damp-close-to-the-work-week-and-looking-ahead-to-a-chance-of-severe-weather-early-next-week/
Mar 16
Updated 03.16.24 @ 7:55a
Indianapolis is running right at average month to date from a rainfall perspective (1.78”).
We’re transitioning to a much drier pattern in the week ahead as a cooler, Canadian airmass dominates (for a change).
Several hard freezes (mid-upper 20s) are on tap in the upcoming 7-10 day period: Monday/ Tuesday morning and again late next week/ next weekend.
Cooler? Yes, but I still don’t see anything overly cold on the horizon as we navigate the next couple of weeks.
What’s more notable is the shift in the precipitation pattern over the next few weeks. The dry Week 1 (now) transitions to a significantly wetter and more active look Week 2 (below).
The JMA also sees the wetter regime.
This is forecast to continue in the Weeks 3/4 timeframe.
Continues to back up the idea of an active (wet) and stormy (more in the way of severe weather) spring as a whole.
Down the road, an eventual move into a hot, dry (compared to normal) summer may loom. (Yet one that is very active from a tropical perspective, continuing into the fall). More on that in the coming weeks…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/16/long-range-report-cooler-drier-week-1-turns-wetter-to-close-march-open-april/
Mar 14
Updated 03.14.24 @ 4:16p
Type: Severe Weather Outbreak
What: Severe weather outbreak
When: Tonight between 6p and midnight
Wind: Potential of straight line winds in excess of 60 MPH
Temperatures: Lower 70s falling into the 40s after midnight
Summary: While all is quiet on the radar as we type this, things will change quickly through the next hour, or so. We anticipate storms to initialize across the region around 6p and quickly intensify. Downstream radar and satellite trends pose a concerning look this afternoon, including several super cells and this activity is expected to expand into central IN through the evening. All modes of severe weather are possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Please heed all warnings and have your severe weather safety plan activated through the evening. Thankfully, we still anticipate rapidly improving conditions north to south towards 11p to midnight.
Confidence: High
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/14/client-brief-severe-weather-episode-on-track-tonight/
Mar 14
Updated 03.14.24 @ 7:37a We’re tracking 2 rounds of storms that’ll impact central IN today: around lunchtime and again for the evening commute. While both rounds of storms stand a…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/14/video-timing-out-2-rounds-of-strong-severe-storms-trending-cooler-into-next-week/
Mar 13
Updated 03.13.24 @ 5:44a
Most of today will be dry and unseasonably mild. We’ll watch radar trends this evening to see if storms are able to ignite, at least in widely scattered fashion. If this does, indeed, take place it would most likely be after sunset.
A better chance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms awaits Thursday, likely in a couple of different waves between the afternoon and evening hours.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlights far western portions of the state in a Slight risk of severe weather (damaging straight line winds are the biggest concern) Thursday. We’ll watch today’s trends to see if this needs expanded further east for potential severe impacts Thursday.
We’ll transition to a general rain Friday morning before a drier theme arrives for the 1st half of the weekend. By that point, rainfall totals should check-in between 0.50” and 1” for most.
Saturday actually isn’t looking bad with the opportunity of sun and pleasant temperatures ahead of a colder push of air Sunday night. Speaking of that, temperatures should grow cold enough to allow snow to fly across the region by Monday morning. Despite the recent stretch of unseasonably warm temperatures, we can’t rule out heavier snow bursts creating a quick coating to dusting of wet snow on grassy surfaces.
Ah, storms to snow- March at its finest in the Hoosier state.
As we look ahead to the remainder of March, the pattern appears to be in position to lead to a colder than normal regime for a change. It should be noted that we don’t see any significant cold during the late month time frame, rather a setup that should drive a slightly cooler than normal pattern (overall) over the last 10 days, or so of the month.
More on how we think April opens later this week in our long range report.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/13/wednesday-morning-rambles-talking-storms-and-a-cooler-pattern-to-close-out-march/
Mar 02
Updated 03.02.24 @ 6:38a
An unseasonably mild week is on tap with a couple chances of rain and embedded thunder. Widespread, organized severe weather isn’t anticipated in the upcoming week.
Forecast Period: 03.02.24 – 03.09.24
After a quiet weekend (including a progressively brighter sky :-)), unsettled weather will come at us in 2 waves in the week ahead: Monday evening into Tuesday morning and again Friday evening into Saturday. In both cases, we expect widespread precipitation. In the case of our early week system, embedded thunder (non-severe) can’t be ruled out. With our late week storm system, the early call now is for more of an organized general rain to fall. Colder air will return to the region by the latter part of next weekend, potentially including some snow showers by Sunday.
Upcoming Storm Dates to keep an eye on:
*10-Day Rainfall Projection: 1.00” to 2.00”
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/02/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-46/
Feb 29
Updated 02.29.24 @ 5:13a
Tomorrow we’ll welcome in meteorological spring and the first couple weeks of March appear to continue the unseasonably warm trend. At times, additional warm records will likely fall.
This is strongly correlated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation highly amplified in the classic warm phases this time of year. (You can absolutely say goodbye to any sort of sustained cold prospects this time of year with the MJO in phases 4, 5, and especially 6). Now, down the road, we’ll want to watch and see if we can maintain this amplitude and rumble into the transitional colder Phase 7 before a potential opportunity to see cold grow more impressive should we *finally get into Phase 8 late month. Remember that we made an attempt at that back in mid-February before things instead collapsed into the neutral phase. Moral of the story for folks longing for one more bout of sustained cold prior to the warmer months ahead, “don’t hold your breath.” The trend certainly isn’t your friend.
Back to the present. No matter what the teleconnections say, an amplified MJO will always win out. And the current MJO forecast to roll through the phases listed above screams that our recent warm times will “keep on keepin’ on” as we navigate the 1st half of March.
The Phase 5 and Phase 6 composite analogs at 500mb (upper air pattern) for an El Niño March:
What this should also result in is an active first half of the month, including above normal rainfall and likely at least another early season strong to severe weather event before we get to mid month.
It’s a classic pattern that should feature low pressure systems ejecting out of the Southwest and South-central into the Plains and western Great Lakes region. That puts our neck of the woods on the warm/ wet (and at times stormy) side of the equation.
As we move into late-March and early April, we’ll have our eyes focused on the MJO and whether or not we can, indeed, get into those traditionally colder phases. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/29/long-range-report-warm-open-to-meteorological-spring-mjo-and-nao-impacts-longer-term/
Feb 28
Updated 02.28.24 @ 7:44a Today will serve as a reminder we are still in winter, after all, but another quick warm-up will get underway as we head through the weekend…
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