Category: Severe Weather

May 25

Pleasant Weather Later Today; Unsettled Conditions Return…

Highlights:

  • Rain ends and sunshine arrives later today
  • Pleasant Carb Day
  • Stormy at times this weekend

Trend Is Our Friend Today…Showers are “pinwheeling” around an area of low pressure to our east this morning, but these will begin to diminish as we move through the late morning and into the early afternoon.  In fact, we think sunshine works in here later this afternoon and provides a pleasant finish to the day!

The majority of Friday will feature sunshine and pleasantly warm conditions by afternoon.  We’ll keep a close eye on the radar Friday evening/ night, but currently believe thunderstorms will remain just north of here.

Unfortunately, the long race and Memorial Day weekend won’t be rain-free, but it also won’t be a wash-out.  Most widespread thunderstorm activity should arrive Saturday evening into Sunday morning and some of these could become strong to severe.  The current Day 3 (Saturday) Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center places central and southern portions of the state under a Slight Risk.

While we can’t completely rule out an afternoon shower or storm Sunday, the most widespread activity should occur during the morning hours- before race time. Stay tuned.  We’ll turn cooler early next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.25″ – 1.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/05/25/pleasant-weather-later-today-unsettled-conditions-return/

May 19

Periods Of Storms Through The Weekend…

The Storm Prediction Center includes portions of the state, including Indianapolis, under a Slight Risk of severe weather today and Saturday.

The culprit is a stalled frontal boundary that lies across the center of the state.  This front will “bobble” around from time to time over the next 24 hours before lifting back north as a warm front Saturday evening.  Accordingly, expect a significant temperature spread from north to south today and periods of showers and thunderstorms scattered about central Indiana.  With high precipitable water values, localized heavy rains are expected, but, as mentioned, this won’t be a “uniform” event and there will be “haves and have nots.”  Some neighborhoods can expect to pick up a 2-3 inches of rain between now and Sunday afternoon.  Greatest severe threats include large hail and damaging straight line winds with storms, but we’ll also have to monitor things for the potential of a couple rotating storms as well.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/05/19/periods-of-storms-through-the-weekend/

Apr 30

More Heavy Rain And Storms Ahead; Cooler Week On Deck…

Highlights:

  • Widespread rain and strong storms today
  • Falling temperatures, windy, and wet Monday
  • Midweek storm brewing

Flooding Concerns Remain High…Another slug of moisture will lift north through central Indiana this afternoon into the nighttime hours.  Locally heavy rain will result in big flooding concerns as saturated soils are in place and many creeks and streams are already out of their banks.  Throw in an additional 1″-2″ with locally heavier totals and you have the makings of a dangerous flood situation into early week.  If that wasn’t enough to be concerned about, we’ll also have to watch how things evolve closely this afternoon for the potential of severe thunderstorms.  Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern.

We’ll transition to a much cooler regime to open the new work week with gusty winds and showers continuing.  Temperatures will fall through the 50s during the day.  Jackets will be required!

Tuesday will provide a brief break from the wet weather and we should also introduce some sunshine for a while.  Unfortunately, we won’t have much time to dry out as a wet, windy, and chilly storm is brewing Wednesday evening into Thursday.  Widespread rain (some heavy) will combine with a raw easterly wind and temperatures in the 50s to lead to a rather miserable Thursday.

While shower chances remain early Friday, the theme heading into next weekend is a drier one and we should finally enjoy very pleasant weather by Saturday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 3.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/04/30/more-heavy-rain-and-storms-ahead-cooler-week-on-deck/

Apr 29

Gearing Up For The “2nd Half…”

Central Indiana has enjoyed a well deserved break in the rain and thunderstorms this afternoon, but, unfortunately, stormy times will return tonight.  With an increasingly moist air mass in place (warm front is currently draped across central IN and slowly lifting north), renewed heavy rain is expected tonight into Sunday.  Dew points will approach 70° and precipitable water values (PWATs) will periodically reach 2″ between this evening and Sunday night.  With that kind of moisture content in the atmosphere, locally heavy, flash flood-producing, rains are a “lock.”  Should you live near a creek, stream, or river, please keep abreast of water levels into early next week and have a plan in place to move to higher ground.

The Storm Prediction Center paints a “Slight Risk” of severe weather across central and southern Indiana tonight.

We think an eastward-advancing line of thunderstorms will blow into central Indiana later this evening (between 9p and midnight).  Some of these may reach strong to severe levels with damaging straight line winds of greatest concern.  Additionally, torrential downpours will occur within this line of storms.

Overall coverage of rain and thunderstorms should diminish Sunday morning before ramping up and increasing in overall coverage and intensity (yet again) Sunday evening and night.  In fact, we may be looking at another severe weather episode Sunday night- again with straight line damaging winds of greatest concern.  By the time all is said and done we expect an additional 1″-2″ of rain across central Indiana with locally heavier 3″+ amounts where storms train over the same area.  Obviously, with saturated soils in place across central Indiana, this amount of rain will create flood concerns into Monday morning.  By the time we get to Monday, the big weather story will be strong and gusty NW winds, much cooler air (falling temperatures through the 50s) and nuisance-level showers.

Another heavy rain maker looms Thursday and we’ll cover that in our updated 7-day later tonight or Sunday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/04/29/gearing-up-for-the-2nd-half/

Apr 28

Wet And Stormy Times Through The Weekend; MUCH Cooler Next Week…

While it won’t rain the entire weekend, central Indiana should be prepared for multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms over the next few days.  For those with outdoor plans this weekend, unfortunately what we’re seeing this evening is only the beginning of stormy times ahead.  There will be periods of dry weather in between the waves of storms, but the big story will be the hefty rain totals come Monday morning and embedded severe storms to boot.

Moisture content continues to increase across central Indiana this evening.

Precipitable water values continue to increase this evening and will aid in locally heavy rainfall tonight and through the weekend.

Forecast radar shows the waves of moisture that will impact the region throughout the night.  We project most widespread heavy rain arrives on the scene Saturday morning.

Forecast radar 11p

Forecast radar 4a

Forecast radar 10a

While scattered strong to severe storms will remain in our forecast Saturday afternoon through Sunday, we think the most widespread rains will diminish as we progress through the afternoon hours Saturday.  That said, with such high moisture content, any storms that develop will be plenty capable of producing locally heavy rainfall in a short timeframe.  It should also be mentioned that as the warm front lifts north, central Indiana will get into an increasingly warm and moist air mass Saturday afternoon and Sunday.  In fact, highs Sunday may approach the lower to middle 80s.  Add in a dew point that will approach 70°, a true muggy, summer-like feel will result.

Overall coverage of thunderstorms is expected to, once again, increase Sunday evening into the overnight period.  Additional heavy rain is expected and with saturated soils in place, flash flooding may result.  If you live near a creek or stream, please pay attention to the water levels into early next week.

The Storm Prediction Center outlines the region for the potential of severe weather tonight through Sunday (don’t be surprised if the “Slight Risk” is pulled further north on Sunday in future updates from the SPC).

Once all is said and done, we anticipate widespread 2″-3″ rainfall totals through central Indiana, but also note there will be localized heavier amounts.  Once to Monday we’ll look at a much cooler, windy, and “showery” regime.  Look for falling temperatures through  the day Monday and this will set the stage for the week ahead: MUCH cooler, overall….  More on that later this weekend!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/04/28/wet-and-stormy-times-through-the-weekend-much-cooler-next-week/

Apr 27

Busy Weather Pattern…

Highlights:

  • AM showers then cooler and windy
  • Stormy weekend ahead
  • Cooler next week

Busy Times In The Weather Office…A cold front will sweep through the state this morning with lingering showers and an abrupt wind shift.  Gusty westerly winds and cooler air (we’ve already seen our high for the day) will be with us this afternoon, along with a variably cloudy sky.

Unfortunately, we don’t have many changes to the ongoing idea of hefty weekend rains.  A warm front will begin to slowly lift north Friday into Saturday and this will be the focal point for heavy rain and thunderstorms.  Overall coverage and intensity of rain and thunderstorms will increase as we rumble through the second half of Friday.  A couple of storms could be strong to severe- especially across southern Indiana Friday afternoon and night.

The aforementioned warm front will lift north and be located across the southern Great Lakes region Sunday.  This will put our neck of the woods squarely into the warm and humid air mass Sunday.  Though storm coverage will likely be more scattered in nature when compared to Saturday, heavy thunderstorms will develop, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.  With a deep-rooted tropical connection along with saturated soils in place from early weekend rains, flood and flash flood potential will be high as we go into early portions of next week.

As we open up the work week, we’ll shift gears from a moisture-rich southerly flow to one that’s out of the northwest and much cooler.  Showers will continue through Monday.  Our next storm system will then set it’s eyes on the region by the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.50″ – 3.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/04/27/busy-weather-pattern/

Apr 26

VIDEO: Stormy Wednesday Evening For Some; Weekend Flood Threat…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/04/26/video-stormy-wednesday-evening-for-some-weekend-flood-threat/

Apr 19

Thursday Storms Before A Cooler Trend…

Highlights:

  • Strong storms possible Thursday afternoon
  • Cooler close to the work week
  • Raw Saturday
  • Delightful open to next week

Thursday Rumbles…While storms have pressed through the northern portions of the state today, we’ve enjoyed a couple days of pleasant weather across most of central Indiana.  That will come to an end Thursday as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop, especially during the afternoon into the evening hours.  A few of these storms could become strong-to-severe, including damaging wind and large hail potential.  The cold front will pass Thursday night and help usher in a briefly drier and much cooler air mass to close out the work week.

Our next storm system will pass south of the region Saturday and result in thickening and lowering clouds Friday evening, and showers Saturday.  With a stiff east wind, showers at times, and temperatures well below average, we have the makings for a downright “raw” spring day Saturday.  The second half of the weekend will easily be “the pick” as we return to drier air and increasing sunshine Sunday afternoon.

Early next week looks to get off to a pleasant start, including plentiful sunshine and moderating temperatures.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/04/19/thursday-storms-before-a-cooler-trend/

Apr 10

Drier Weather Arrives For Midweek; Unsettled Easter Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Drier air arrives
  • Unsettled Easter weekend
  • Drier; cooler early next week

Brighter Days Ahead…Needless to say, our storm system to open the work week has “overachieved.”  Severe thunderstorm warnings were hoisted as early as this morning northwest of the city, including Lafayette- where damaging hail was reported.  Storms remained northwest of the city through the rush hour before a line of slow-moving “gully washers” arrived just as Hoosiers were heading home from work.  Thankfully these remained below severe levels, but heavy rain and vivid lightning was noted and most certainly led to a slow commute home.

Drier (and brighter) days are ahead this week.  High pressure returns as we progress through midweek and should allow for increasing sunshine and beautiful weather.

Unfortunately, we can’t dial up 3 nice weekends in a row, but it will be far from a wash-out.  A warm front will lift north Friday into Saturday and result in scattered showers and thunderstorms before a cold front pushes southeast with showers and thunderstorms  Easter, especially in the morning.  We want to reiterate there will be plenty of dry time this weekend…just have the rain gear handy as needed.  Drier air will return Easter afternoon and remain in place early next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″ (locally heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/04/10/drier-weather-arrives-for-midweek-unsettled-easter-weekend/

Apr 09

Looking At The Week Ahead…

The second half of the weekend will feature beautiful weather, albeit breezy conditions at times.  Strong southwesterly winds will gust upwards of 40 MPH this afternoon, but also aid in pushing mid to upper 70s northward into central Indiana.  Despite the strong winds, we still recommend finding a way to get outside and enjoy this weather!

Highs will run close to 15° above average this afternoon.

Stormy weather returns Monday as a frontal boundary slips into the state.  A couple storms may become strong or severe Monday afternoon and the Storm Prediction Center highlights northwestern portions of the state for a Slight Risk.  Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with any severe storm that may develop.

High pressure returns for midweek and supplies a dry regime, along with increasing sunshine and temperatures that will run slightly above average (mid-40s at night and 65°-70° during the day).

There are questions once to the end of the period as the GFS and European handle the evolution of our late-week storm differently.  The GFS brings energy out into the Ohio Valley and results in unsettled weather returning Friday, continuing into Easter weekend, while the European is slower.  We’ll keep an eye on things over the next few days and update accordingly.  The GFS suggests some localized heavier downpours would be possible in the Friday-Sunday period as the majority of the 7-day precipitation snapshot below falls within the timeframe.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/04/09/looking-at-the-week-ahead/

IndyWx.com