While it won’t rain the entire weekend, central Indiana should be prepared for multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms over the next few days. For those with outdoor plans this weekend, unfortunately what we’re seeing this evening is only the beginning of stormy times ahead. There will be periods of dry weather in between the waves of storms, but the big story will be the hefty rain totals come Monday morning and embedded severe storms to boot.
Moisture content continues to increase across central Indiana this evening.
Precipitable water values continue to increase this evening and will aid in locally heavy rainfall tonight and through the weekend.
Forecast radar shows the waves of moisture that will impact the region throughout the night. We project most widespread heavy rain arrives on the scene Saturday morning.
Forecast radar 11p
Forecast radar 4a
Forecast radar 10a
While scattered strong to severe storms will remain in our forecast Saturday afternoon through Sunday, we think the most widespread rains will diminish as we progress through the afternoon hours Saturday. That said, with such high moisture content, any storms that develop will be plenty capable of producing locally heavy rainfall in a short timeframe. It should also be mentioned that as the warm front lifts north, central Indiana will get into an increasingly warm and moist air mass Saturday afternoon and Sunday. In fact, highs Sunday may approach the lower to middle 80s. Add in a dew point that will approach 70°, a true muggy, summer-like feel will result.
Overall coverage of thunderstorms is expected to, once again, increase Sunday evening into the overnight period. Additional heavy rain is expected and with saturated soils in place, flash flooding may result. If you live near a creek or stream, please pay attention to the water levels into early next week.
The Storm Prediction Center outlines the region for the potential of severe weather tonight through Sunday (don’t be surprised if the “Slight Risk” is pulled further north on Sunday in future updates from the SPC).
Once all is said and done, we anticipate widespread 2″-3″ rainfall totals through central Indiana, but also note there will be localized heavier amounts. Once to Monday we’ll look at a much cooler, windy, and “showery” regime. Look for falling temperatures through the day Monday and this will set the stage for the week ahead: MUCH cooler, overall…. More on that later this weekend!
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Highs will run close to 15° above average this afternoon.
Stormy weather returns Monday as a frontal boundary slips into the state. A couple storms may become strong or severe Monday afternoon and the Storm Prediction Center highlights northwestern portions of the state for a Slight Risk. Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with any severe storm that may develop.
High pressure returns for midweek and supplies a dry regime, along with increasing sunshine and temperatures that will run slightly above average (mid-40s at night and 65°-70° during the day).
There are questions once to the end of the period as the GFS and European handle the evolution of our late-week storm differently. The GFS brings energy out into the Ohio Valley and results in unsettled weather returning Friday, continuing into Easter weekend, while the European is slower. We’ll keep an eye on things over the next few days and update accordingly. The GFS suggests some localized heavier downpours would be possible in the Friday-Sunday period as the majority of the 7-day precipitation snapshot below falls within the timeframe.
Week 2:
Weeks 3-4:
The big picture is one that shows a drier pattern developing across the East during Week 1, but we caution that this drier regime doesn’t look to “lock” in. Data suggests we get back to an active pattern between Week’s 2-4, biased wetter than normal in the Mid West and Plains. The other screaming message is that a busy severe season should continue through the period. Cold sets up across the Pacific Northwest, associated with the “mean” trough position, while spring-like warmth continues to build across our region in overall terms. We know what that means as storms eject off the Rockies and track east…
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2.) We’ll get a breather on Tuesday, but our next storm system will move in quickly and begin impacting central Indiana during the day Wednesday. A couple strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and will require our attention over the next day, or so. We’ll have more details with our updated 7-day later today.
3.) We’ll get into the colder side of the storm to close the work week and thoughts will shift from storms to snow. Wind-whipped snow showers will be a good bet in the unseasonably cold air Thursday into Friday morning.
4.) Timing will once again be our friend as we push into the weekend. Weak high pressure will arrive on the scene and help ensure dry conditions. After a cold start Saturday, a moderating trend will develop.
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